Texas Longhorns vs. Florida Gators Prediction and Picks – Saturday, October 4, 2025
Use Code SSWC The Florida Gators will host the Texas Longhorns this Saturday for a Week 6 SEC matchup, and we'll preview the lines and odds in our Texas vs. Florida prediction. The Gators took a much-needed bye last week after suffering three straight losses, while the Longhorns took their Week 5 bye on the heels of three consecutive wins. Kickoff for this game is set for 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, October 4.
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Can Texas maintain momentum into SEC schedule?
After taking Week 5 off, the No. 9 Texas Longhorns will play their first SEC game of the 2025 season when they face Florida on Saturday. They're 3-1 with only a 14-7 loss to No. 1 Ohio State blemishing their record, but the Longhorns coasted through September with games against San Jose State (38-7), UTEP (27-10), and Sam Houston State (55-0). All three games had Texas favored to win by well over 30 points on the spread; the third game against Sam Houston was the only one in which they covered.
For what it's worth, the Longhorns' rout of the Sam Houston State Bearkats looked like it was supposed to. Texas gained 607 yards on offense while allowing only 113 on defense, gained 26 first downs while allowing only seven, and converted 7 of 11 third-down attempts while allowing only two conversions on 14 third downs from the Bearkats. Sophomore quarterback Arch Manning played his best game of the season, completing 18 of 21 passes for 309 yards and three touchdowns, averaging 12.3 yards per attempt and an 85.7 completion percentage. It marked Manning's first game of the season with a completion percentage above 70.0%, as well as his first game without an interception. Manning entered Week 4 on the heels of a game against UTEP where he'd completed only 44 percent of his passes for 114 yards, despite the Longhorns winning 27-10.
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Beyond Manning, the Longhorns boast a defense that ranks fourth in yards allowed per game (212.0) and second in points allowed per game (7.8) among FBS teams. While the team's schedule played a role in those numbers, the defense allowed only 203 yards to Ohio State in Texas' season opener. We'll see how they show up against a Florida offense that's moved the ball, even if they've chronically turned it over and failed to convert yardage into points.
Can Florida Gators get out of their own way?
The Florida Gators took Week 5 off, giving them some distance from a three-game losing streak entering Week 6. Despite the disappointment surrounding their 1-3 start and disappointing performances from head coach Billy Napier and sophomore quarterback D.J. Lagway, the Gators' record doesn't reflect a team nearly as far away from contention as it feels like they are. They've lost back-to-back road games against teams in the top five of the AP Top 25, including a visit to LSU, where the Gators' offense outperformed their opponent in yardage and first downs. The five interceptions Lagway threw in that game can't be written off, nor should they; they're a prime example that the Gators' most significant obstacle to contention has been themselves.
Lagway didn't beat the Gators in their 26-7 loss to the Miami Hurricanes, but he didn't do much to help them win either. He completed 12 of 23 passes in the game for 61 yards, averaging only 2.7 yards per attempt. His rushing contributions, including four sacks taken, added up to a net -8 yards on eight carries. The Gators' ground game combined to gain 80 yards across 29 carries, averaging a paltry 2.8 yards per attempt overall. Sophomore back Jadan Baugh led the pack with 46 yards and a touchdown on 12 carries, averaging a still-rough but respectable 3.8 yards per carry. Overall, the team gained only 141 yards and seven first downs the whole game, notably failing to convert on any of their 13 third-down plays.
Despite the performance, the Gators' defense still ranks 24th among FBS teams with only 16.0 points allowed per game. If the offense did anything to sort itself out over the bye week, Florida could look substantially better against Texas on Saturday. Lagway is completing 67.5% of his passes for 690 yards with five TDs and six INTs.
Texas vs. Florida Pick
Spread Pick for Texas vs. Florida
- Texas -7.0 (-110) (4 Units)
The Longhorns covered the spread for the first time this season when they last took the field, beating Sam Houston State 55-0 to soar past the 39.5-point spread. They'll face a greater challenge from Florida's defense, but they have to score nearly as much to cover as touchdown favorites in the swamp. Florida hasn't covered since their opening game against Long Island, they lost to LSU due to poor ball control before losing to Miami due to an overall anemic offensive showing, and any improvement they might make over the bye week is theoretical. Texas still boasts one of the best scoring defenses in the FBS; if Manning and the offense look functional, I'd expect them to cover.
Over/Under Pick for Texas vs. Florida
- Under 41.5 (-110) (4 Units)
The Team Total Under has hit in all of Florida's four games this season, and their offense has scored fewer and fewer points in each successive game. They're hosting the second-ranked scoring defense this Saturday; even if Lagway and the Gators' offense turn things around this season, they'll hit a season-high for points scored against an FBS opponent if they get any further than two touchdowns. Texas hasn't been doing much better at hitting the total; their 55-0 win over Sam Houston is the only game they've played this season to hit the Team Total Over. Even if Manning and the Longhorns' offense maintain the momentum they established in Week 4, I wouldn't expect them to light up the scoreboard against a vastly more challenging defense.
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