Texas Longhorns vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs Prediction and Picks – Saturday, October 25, 2025

The No. 22 Texas Longhorns will visit the Mississippi State Bulldogs in Week 9, and we'll preview the lines and odds in our Texas vs. Mississippi State prediction. Texas is 5-2 this season after an up-and-down start, while Mississippi State has crashed to 4-3 after opening SEC play with three straight losses. Kickoff is set for 4:15 PM ET on Saturday, October 25.

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Texas narrowly escapes Kentucky with ugly OT win

The Texas Longhorns have been hard to pin down this season–they're ranked 22nd in the AP Top 25, they're 5-2 overall, and they beat No. 6 Oklahoma 23-6 in the Red River Rivalry game only a fortnight ago. At the same time, this team is 2-1 in SEC play after losing 29-21 to Florida and needed an overtime field goal to beat Kentucky 16-13 in overtime, keeping them at the bottom of the 16-team conference standings.

Winning cures all ills, but the box score reflects a game that Texas had no business emerging from victorious. Their offense put up a paltry 179 total yards while their defense gave up 395. They converted eight first downs while their defense allowed Kentucky to convert 26. They lost 50 yards on seven penalties, they converted only five of 16 third-down attempts, and starting quarterback Arch Manning completed fewer than half of his 27 passes for only 4.9 yards per attempt. He also finished the game with a net -1 rushing yards on 11 carries–he was only sacked three times–and didn't throw a touchdown for the first time this season.

Texas ranks 80th among FBS teams in passing yards per game (218.7), 75th in rushing yards (149.4), T-80th in points (26.7), and third in points allowed (11.3) per game among 136 FBS teams. Their scoring defense has been a defined strength–Florida remains the only team thus far to eclipse 20 points against Texas, despite their schedule also including Ohio State and Oklahoma–but they aren't likely to win many games leaning on it as hard as they did against Kentucky.

Bottom Team

The Mississippi State Bulldogs are 4-3 overall but only 13th in the SEC standings after losing to No. 15 Tennessee (41-34), No. 6 Texas A&M (31-9), and Florida (23-21) in their past three outings. Things won't be getting any easier down the stretch–No. 22 Texas, their upcoming opponent, is one of four currently-ranked opponents the Bulldogs will face in their next five games.

Mississippi State finished only two points behind Florida on the scoreboard, but they spent most of the game trailing after the Gators went up 10-7 early in the second quarter. The Bulldogs scored on their opening possession to go up 7-0, but didn't find the endzone again until they needed to cut the Gators' lead to 20-14 in the fourth quarter. They could've easily completed the comeback if quarterback Blake Shapen hadn't thrown an interception with just over 20 seconds left in the game, when the Bulldogs were down two points and had possession at the Florida 30-yard line. The Gators, despite the win, fired head coach Billy Napier the next day.

Shapen completed 24 of 36 passes for 324 yards in the game, his first of the season without a touchdown. He's taken 14 sacks over the team's last three outings while throwing two touchdowns and three interceptions. It'll be tough to improve those numbers against the Longhorns' stingy scoring defense, but it's hard to imagine the Bulldogs winning their first SEC game of the season otherwise.

Texas vs. Mississippi State Pick

Spread Pick for Texas vs. Mississippi State

• Mississippi State +7.0 (-115) (5 Units)

If there's one thing the Bulldogs have consistently done well this season, it's cover the spread–they're 6-1 ATS, only falling short as 16-point underdogs in their 31-9 dud against Texas A&M. The Longhorns, conversely, are 2-5 ATS and 0-3 ATS on the road. Their offensive home-road split is striking–they haven't scored fewer than 23 points in a home game, but they haven't topped 21 points on the road. Their defense has shown up regardless, holding every opponent they've faced except Florida to under 20 points. This won't likely be a high-scoring game, which will only make it easier for the Bulldogs to keep things within seven points.

Over/Under Pick for Texas vs. Mississippi State

• Under 44.5 (-110) (4 Units)

A 44.5 total line is a low bar to get under, but it's one that Texas has finished short of in four games this season–including each of their past two outings. The Team Total Under is 5-2 in both of these teams' games, and the numbers grow more favorable when filtering out Texas' win over Sam Houston (55-0), and State's win over FCS Alcorn State (63-0). At least one team's offense will need to look good for the over to hit here; that isn't a bet I'd make on either of them.