Texas Red Raiders vs Kansas State Wildcats Prediction and Picks - November 1, 2025
Saturday afternoon College Football action, Big 12 style, and we have a Texas Tech vs Kansas State Prediction ready to rock and roll. The Red Raiders have gone 7-1 on the year and they are off a 42-0 home win over Oklahoma State. Kansas State is off a 42-17 road win over Kansas to improve to 4-4 on the year. Kansas State has won the last eight games in this series. Can Texas Tech break the string? Read on to see our Texas Tech vs Kansas State prediction.
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Red Raiders Lasso the Cowboys In Easy Win
Texas Tech enters this matchup at 7-1 overall and 4-1 in the Big 12, coming off a dominant 42-0 win over Oklahoma State that showcased their depth and defensive muscle. The quarterback carousel was in full swing after Will Hammond exited with an injury, but the Red Raiders didn’t flinch. MJ Griffis stepped in and threw for 172 yards and a touchdown, while Hammond had 102 yards and a score before leaving. Even third-stringer H. Phillips got a snap. Now, with Behren Morton returning to the starting role, Tech regains its most experienced signal-caller just in time for a road test in Manhattan.
Morton’s return stabilizes the offense, which has been humming along at 43.6 points per game, fourth-best in the FBS. He’ll have a full arsenal at his disposal — Cameron Dickey and J’Koby Williams continue to thrive in the backfield, combining for over 1,000 yards and 13 touchdowns. Wideouts Caleb Douglas and Coy Eakin give Morton reliable targets, while Reggie Virgil has emerged as a red-zone threat. The offensive line has been solid, allowing just eight sacks all season, and the unit’s ability to protect Morton and open lanes for the run game will be key against a Kansas State defense that’s been vulnerable to explosive plays.
Defensively, Tech has been elite against the run, allowing just 68.1 rushing yards per game, No. 1 in the country. Linebackers Jacob Rodriguez and Ben Roberts have been everywhere, while David Bailey leads the FBS with 10.5 sacks, anchoring a pass rush that’s been relentless. The secondary has held up well, forcing turnovers and limiting big plays, and the unit as a whole has generated 16 takeaways. Against a Kansas State offense that leans on Avery Johnson’s mobility and improvisation, Tech’s front seven will be tasked with keeping contain and forcing the Wildcats into uncomfortable passing situations. If they do, the Red Raiders have the firepower and defensive edge to take control early.
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Rob Vincilleti | +450.00 |
| 2 |  Sean Higgs | +327.00 |
| 3 |  David Delano | +182.00 |
| 4 |  Stephen Nover | +100.00 |
| 5 |  Terry Edelmann | +100.00 |
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Kansas State Crushes In-State Rival Kansas
Kansas State enters the matchup at 4-4 overall and 3-2 in the Big 12, but they’ve shown signs of life with back-to-back wins over TCU and Kansas. Quarterback Avery Johnson has settled in nicely, throwing for 1,787 yards and 15 touchdowns while cutting his interception total down to just two. He’s also a threat on the ground, with five rushing scores, and his dual-threat ability gives the Wildcats a chance to extend plays and keep drives alive. Running back Joe Jackson has taken on a heavier workload with Dylan Edwards sidelined, and he’s responded with solid production, including 110 yards against TCU and 69 more versus Kansas.
The Wildcats’ offense has leaned heavily on Johnson’s legs and improvisation, but they’ve also found a big-play weapon in wideout Jayce Brown, who torched Kansas for 160 yards and a touchdown on just four catches. Kansas State ranks 20th nationally in red-zone efficiency, scoring on 92 percent of their trips, and they’ve been able to capitalize on short fields thanks to a strong turnover margin. The challenge will be sustaining drives against a Tech defense that doesn’t give up much on the ground and pressures quarterbacks relentlessly. If Johnson can avoid negative plays and find rhythm early, the Wildcats have the tools to hang around.
Defensively, Kansas State has been inconsistent, allowing 368.9 yards and 25.8 points per game, and they’ve struggled to contain explosive offenses. The front seven has tightened up recently, but they’ll be tested by Tech’s deep backfield and tempo. Linebacker Des Purnell has been a bright spot with two interceptions and a pick-six against TCU, while cornerback Zashon Rich leads the team in passes defended. The Wildcats have been disciplined, ranking seventh nationally in fewest penalty yards per game, and that could help them stay competitive in a game where every possession matters. But if they can’t generate pressure on Morton or slow down Dickey and Williams, it’ll be tough to keep pace.
Texas Tech vs Kansas State Pick
Texas Tech vs Kansas State Spread Pick
- Kansas State +7 (5 Units)
Kansas State +7 feels like a sharp play because the Wildcats have quietly built momentum with back-to-back wins and now get a ranked opponent at home. Avery Johnson has settled in as a dual-threat quarterback who can extend plays and punish defenses with his legs, and that’s exactly the kind of profile that can frustrate a Texas Tech defense built to dominate the line of scrimmage. The Wildcats have also been efficient in the red zone and disciplined in limiting penalties, which helps them stay in games even when they’re outgunned on paper. With Joe Jackson emerging as a reliable back and Jayce Brown stretching the field, Kansas State has enough offensive balance to keep this close.
On the defensive side, Kansas State will need to bend without breaking, and they’ve shown flashes of that lately. While Texas Tech has the edge in firepower, Behren Morton is just returning from injury, and the Wildcats could take advantage of any rust or timing issues early. Lane Stadium is no easy place to play, and if the Wildcats can generate a couple of stops or turnovers, they’ll have a real shot to hang within the number. This feels like a game where Kansas State’s grit, home-field edge, and quarterback mobility give them the tools to cover, even if Tech ultimately escapes with the win.
Texas Tech vs Kansas State Over/Under Pick
- Under 53 (4 Units)
The under 53 makes sense here because both teams lean on the run and have defenses capable of controlling tempo. Texas Tech’s front seven has been dominant, allowing just 68.1 rushing yards per game, and Kansas State’s offense is built around Avery Johnson’s mobility and methodical drives. That combination points to fewer possessions and longer stretches between scores. Add in Morton returning from injury — which could mean a more conservative game plan early — and the Wildcats’ tendency to grind out red-zone trips rather than strike quickly, and this matchup feels more like a 27-20 type of game than a shootout.
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