Texas State vs Arkansas State Prediction and Picks - October 4th, 2025
Use Code SSWC Saturday afternoon Sun Belt College Football action, and we have a Texas State vs Arkansas State Prediction ready to rock and roll. The Bobcats enter this contest off a dominating 35-3 home win over Nicholls State to move to 3-1 on the year. Arkansas State is off to a 1-4 start, and they come in off a 28-16 road loss at the hands of UL Monroe. Texas State won last year's meeting by a score of 41-9. Can the Red Wolves get a measure of revenge in this one? Read on to see our Texas State vs Arkansas State prediction.
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Bobcats Maul Nicholls State
Texas State heads into Sun Belt play with confidence after dispatching Nicholls State 35–3, a game that showcased their depth and control on both sides of the ball. Freshman quarterback Brad Jackson continues to grow into the role, adding two rushing touchdowns and managing the offense with poise. He’s now accounted for eight total scores through four games, and his chemistry with Beau Sparks remains a focal point—Sparks leads the team in receiving and has become Jackson’s go-to option in high-leverage spots. Kylen Evans added 88 yards last week, giving the Bobcats a trio of reliable targets.
The ground game remains a strength even with Torrance Burgess Jr. sidelined. Lincoln Pare and Greg Burrell combined for over 100 yards and three touchdowns against Nicholls, with Burrell showing burst and vision between the tackles. Texas State has converted over 44% of third downs and continues to protect the ball—just two turnovers through four games. The offensive line has kept Jackson upright and opened lanes for a committee backfield that’s gaining confidence. If the Bobcats maintain balance and rhythm, they’ll be tough to slow down in Jonesboro.
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Defensively, Texas State showed improved discipline and tackling last week, limiting Nicholls to short gains and forcing long fields. Khamari Terrell’s red zone interception was the unit’s first takeaway of the season, and the front seven consistently disrupted timing. Linebacker Treylin Payne and edge rusher Kalil Alexander led the charge, while the secondary kept everything in front and limited explosive plays. With Arkansas State struggling to finish drives and protect the quarterback, Texas State’s defense has a chance to control tempo and flip field position early.
Not A Good Start For The Red Wolves
Arkansas State dropped its conference opener 28–16 at ULM, where the offense managed just 305 total yards and failed to score in the fourth quarter. Quarterback Jaylen Raynor has thrown for 1,203 yards and six touchdowns, but his four interceptions and 15 sacks taken have stalled drives. The Red Wolves are averaging just 21.8 points per game and rank outside the top 100 in total offense (354.8 YPG). Running back Kenyon Clay leads the ground game with 166 yards, but the team is averaging just 3.3 yards per carry and has scored five rushing touchdowns all season.
The offensive line has struggled to protect Raynor, and Arkansas State has converted just 38.2% of third downs while committing 31 penalties for 279 yards. Wideout Chauncy Cobb has been the most consistent weapon, posting 367 yards on 27 catches, but the lack of explosive plays and red zone efficiency (13 scores on 18 trips) has kept the Red Wolves from building momentum. If Raynor can stay upright and Clay finds early success, Arkansas State could keep it close—but they’ll need to clean up protection and avoid early deficits.
Defensively, Arkansas State has allowed 32.0 points per game and ranks 113th in total defense (465.4 YPG). Opponents are averaging 5.6 yards per carry and nearly 270 passing yards per game, with 22 total touchdowns allowed through five games. The Red Wolves have forced just four turnovers and recorded seven sacks, often struggling to get off the field—opponents are converting over 50% of third downs. Linebacker Nigel Nelson leads the team with 28 tackles, but the unit has been worn down late in games. Against a Texas State offense that’s efficient and deep, Arkansas State will need its best defensive showing of the season to stay competitive.
Texas State vs Arkansas State Pick
Texas State vs Arkansas State Spread Pick
- Texas State -13.5 (5 Units)
Texas State -13.5 is a sharp position against an Arkansas State team that’s 1–4 and struggling to protect its quarterback or finish drives. The Bobcats have covered three of four this season and enter with a balanced, efficient offense led by freshman Brad Jackson, who’s accounted for eight touchdowns and shown poise in both tempo and red zone settings. Even without Torrance Burgess Jr., the run game remains deep and productive, and the offensive line has allowed just five sacks all year. Against a Red Wolves defense giving up 32.0 points per game and over 465 yards per contest, Texas State has the structure to build margin early.
Defensively, the Bobcats are trending up. They held Nicholls State to 3.5 yards per play and forced their first turnover of the season, while the front seven consistently disrupted timing and closed space. Arkansas State has allowed 15 sacks and committed eight turnovers, and their offense has averaged just 21.8 points per game. If Texas State wins early downs and forces Jaylen Raynor into obvious passing situations, they’ll control field position and tempo. With superior execution on both sides of the ball, the Bobcats are built to cover double digits and open Sun Belt play with authority.
Texas State vs Arkansas State Over/Under Pick
- Under 64.5 (4 Units)
Under 64.5 makes sense in a matchup where one team struggles to finish drives and the other controls tempo with a freshman quarterback. Arkansas State games have averaged just 35.6 points this season, and their offense has been plagued by sacks, turnovers, and red zone inefficiency. Texas State has allowed just three points since the Arizona State loss and showed improved tackling and discipline against Nicholls. With both defenses capable of limiting explosive plays and Arkansas State unlikely to push pace, this total feels inflated relative to game flow.
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