Texas State vs Texas Picks and Prediction for Saturday September 5 2026

The Texas State Bobcats make the short trip to Austin for a major in-state matchup against the Texas Longhorns on Saturday, September 5. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 PM ET at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin, Texas, with ESPN providing national television coverage. The current market has Texas favored by 30.5 points, while the total is sitting around 60 to 60.5. The Longhorns are overwhelming favorites to win outright, but Texas State gets more than four touchdowns to work with against the spread. Get into the action with our free college football picks.

Texas State Gets a Huge Opportunity

Texas State faces an enormous increase in competition, but this is also the type of in-state opportunity that should have the Bobcats fully engaged from the opening kick.

The biggest objective is preventing Texas from creating an avalanche early. Texas State cannot afford turnovers, short fields or repeated three-and-outs that allow the Longhorns to turn a talent advantage into a four-touchdown halftime margin.

Receiving 30.5 points provides substantial protection. Texas State doesn't need to seriously threaten the upset. The Bobcats need enough offense to force Texas toward the 40-point range before the favorite can cover.

Even 14 to 17 points could make the Longhorns work extremely hard to cash a spread this large.

Texas Has the Talent Advantage

Texas should own substantial advantages in depth, size and overall athleticism. The Longhorns are playing at home and are priced as roughly 30-point favorites across the current market.

This is exactly the type of opponent Texas should be able to overpower as the game progresses. The concern from a betting perspective is whether the Longhorns continue extending the margin after the outcome is no longer seriously in question.

A spread above 30 means a 42-14 victory isn't enough. Texas could dominate virtually every important aspect of the game and still leave Bobcats bettors holding a winning ticket.

The total around 60 also indicates that Texas State is expected to contribute something offensively. If the Bobcats reach the mid-teens, Texas may need to approach 50 to simultaneously cover and send the game Over.

Texas State vs Texas Picks and Prediction

Pick: Texas State +30.5

I'm taking Texas State +30.5. Texas should win comfortably, but we're getting more than four touchdowns with an in-state opponent that should treat this as one of its biggest games of the season. The Longhorns could control the game from beginning to end and still have difficulty creating 31 points of separation. A final around Texas 42, Texas State 17 produces a convincing 25-point Texas victory while comfortably cashing the Bobcats. Once a spread climbs through 30, I'm willing to make the favorite prove it can maintain maximum pressure for four quarters. Take Texas State +30.5.

Pick: Under 60.5

The Under 60.5 is my preferred total. Texas State covering fits naturally with a game in which the Bobcats shorten possessions and keep Texas from generating an excessive number of scoring opportunities. Texas should still reach the upper 30s or low 40s, but the Longhorns don't necessarily need to chase points late. Something around 42-14 or 41-17 keeps us beneath the current number. Take Under 60.5.

Final Picks: Texas State +30.5 and Under 60.5