Texas vs. Georgia, Picks, Odds, Preview and Prediction, Saturday, Nov. 15, 2025
We have a massive SEC matchup in this Texas vs. Georgia prediction on Saturday night at 7:30pmET from Athens. No. 10 Texas (7-2, 4-1 SEC) sits in fifth place in the SEC, a game behind third-place (No. 5) Georgia (8-1, 6-1 SEC), as both teams attempt to earn a bid to the College Football Playoffs. Last season, Georgia edged Texas 22-19 in overtime in the SEC title game. We have more free college football predictions and other top plays at Stat Salt.
Quick Picks and Prediction on Texas vs. Georgia
If you're in a hurry, here is my prediction: pick and total in the Texas vs. Georgia game.
- Texas 24-Georgia 20
- Texas +6.5
- Under 49.5
Texas vs. Georgia Odds and Line Movement
- Check out the opening odds for Texas vs. Georgia
- Keep reading for the line movement for Texas vs. Georgia
Opening Odds for Texas vs. Georgia
- Georgia -5.5 (-110)
- o51.5 (-115), u51.5 (-105)
- Money Line Texas +168, Georgia -205
(odds from FanDuel)
Texas vs. Georgia Line Movement
- The spread went from Georgia -5.5 to -6.5 (-105)
- The total moved from 51.5 to o49.5 (-115) and u49.5 (-115)
- The ML moved from Texas +168.Georgia -205 to Texas +188/Georgia -225
Key Matchups for Texas vs. Georgia
Arch playing like a Manning
It took some time, but Arch Manning was worth the wait in Austin. After losing to dysfunctional Florida on Oct. 29-21, few saw Texas breaking out with four straight wins over Oklahoma, Kentucky, Mississippi State and Vanderbilt (34-31). The win over the Commodores last week wasn't easy, but Vandy is 8-2 and no joke anymore. Manning threw for 328 yards and three TDs and has now thrown for 671 yards over his last two games and continues to improve after a slow start.
Manning has thrown for 2,123 yards with 18 TDs and six picks this season, while rushing for 203 yards and six TDs. His leading receiver is Ryan Wingo, who has 31 catches for 593 yards and five TDs (19.1ypc). Texas is a strange team that struggles to run the football at 135.3 yards per game (96th), but they ranks second against the run (78.2ypg).
Stockton drives the Georgia engine
Georgia comes into this crucial game having won five straight. Gunner Stockton has led the way with 15 touchdowns passing, seven rushing scores and just two picks in his first season as a starter (he played in the SEC title game due to Carson Beck's torn UCL). The Bulldogs have some flaws as shown in wins over Auburn by 10 (20-10) and Florida (24-20), facing talented squads with head coaches in trouble or interim coaches. Stockton threw for 264 yards and three TDs against Mississippi State (41-21) in a road win last week in a game that wasn't that close.
Nate Frazier leads the ground attack with 575 yards rushing, while Chauncey Bowens adds 474 yards and six TDs. Georgia is a solid running team that averages 197.2 yards per game (25th) and they stop the run, allowing 102.2 yards per game (13th). Their pass defense is another story as they rank 56 (210.6ypg).
Betting Trends for Texas vs. Georgia
Texas:
- 2-9 ATS last 11 games.
- 4-2 Over last 6.
Georgia:
- 4-1 ATS last 5 games.
Key Injuries and Analysis for Georgia vs. Texas
Texas:
- CB M. Taafe (undisclosed) is questionable. Has 45 tackles, one INT and a sack.
Georgia:
- DL J. Hall (undisclosed) is out. Has 11 tackles.
- CB K. Jones (undisclosed) is out. Has 22 tackles.
Texas vs. Georgia ATS and Over/Under Betting Picks
Check out the pick on the spread and the total below, along with analysis on why I like the pick based on stats, intangibles and personnel.
Texas vs. Georgia Spread
- Texas +6.5
Total for Texas vs. Georgia
- Under 49.5
Texas vs. Georgia Final Score Prediction
- Texas 24-Georgia 20
Don't be surprised if Texas wins this game outright. Georgia's pass defense, while getting better, is still a mystery and Manning should be able to take advantage with the weather in the mid-60's. Texas is so due to win a big game, it's unreal. Georgia can still make the playoffs with a loss, but if Texas loses, it may be done with three losses. It also helps that Texas is outstanding against the run and that's what a Kirby Smart team wants to do, establish the ground game. Both have solid defenses and while I expect some trick plays here and there, the pressure on these coaches is immense. All three games played between these teams have gone under.