Texas vs LSU Picks and Prediction for Saturday November 14 2026

Texas heads to Baton Rouge on Saturday to face LSU at Tiger Stadium. ABC has the coverage, with kickoff scheduled in the afternoon or evening window. LSU is favored by 4.5 points, and the total is around 45.5. Early forecasts suggest temperatures in the upper 50s, a moderate breeze and little chance of rain. Texas just beat Missouri 34-20, while LSU got handled 31-13 by Alabama. That’s a pretty big difference in how these teams are coming into the game. LSU has home field, but Texas has been playing better lately. College football is getting ready for bowl season and the end of the season, but you can still make sure you are ready for everything with our free college football picks.

Texas Has Been Winning With Defense

Texas is 7-2 after beating Missouri by 14 points on November 7. The Longhorns have won three straight, and they’ve been doing a good job taking care of the football. Texas hasn’t always been spectacular offensively, but the defense has been good enough to keep opponents from getting comfortable. That’s important heading into Baton Rouge because LSU has been one of the better offensive teams in the conference.

Texas has been averaging around 31 points per game and allowing only about 17. The Longhorns have been generating roughly 364 yards per game, with more than 230 coming through the air. The defense has been particularly good at limiting big plays, and that’s important against LSU. Texas needs to make the Tigers work through long drives instead of giving up quick touchdowns.

Arch Manning entered November with more than 2,000 passing yards, 18 touchdowns and seven interceptions. Raleek Brown had 537 rushing yards and six scores, while Ryan Wingo had 523 receiving yards and four touchdowns. Those are useful numbers, but Texas needs more consistency from the running game. LSU has been good defensively, and the Longhorns can’t afford to become one-dimensional.

LSU Needs to Bounce Back After Alabama

LSU is 6-3 after losing 31-13 to Alabama on November 7. The Tigers had been playing good football before that, but Alabama exposed some problems. LSU couldn’t get enough going offensively, and the defense had trouble slowing down the Tide. Now the Tigers get another ranked opponent, and they need a much better performance.

LSU has been averaging around 40 points per game and allowing about 16. Those are excellent season numbers, although Alabama made the offense look much less dangerous. The Tigers have been generating more than 450 yards per game, including a strong passing attack. LSU has enough talent to score against Texas, but the Longhorns have been one of the better defensive teams in the conference.

Sam Leavitt entered November with 2,173 passing yards, 17 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Dilin Jones had rushed for 657 yards and six scores, while Jackson Harris had 634 receiving yards and seven touchdowns. LSU has plenty of offensive talent, and playing at home should help. But the Tigers need to protect Leavitt and avoid turnovers. Texas has been good at making opponents pay for mistakes.

Texas vs LSU Picks and Prediction

Spread Pick: Texas +4.5

I’m taking Texas and the points. LSU has the home-field advantage, and the Tigers have been one of the better offensive teams in the SEC. But Texas has been playing good defense, and the Longhorns just beat Missouri by 14 on the road. LSU struggled badly against Alabama, and Texas has enough defensive talent to create similar problems. I think this is a close game, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Longhorns win outright. Give me Texas plus the points.

Total Pick: Under 45.5

Give me the under 45.5. Both teams have been playing excellent defense, with Texas allowing around 17 points and LSU around 16. LSU’s offense has been explosive, but Alabama just held the Tigers to 13. Texas has enough defensive talent to make LSU work for its points. The concern is both quarterbacks hitting big plays and turning this into a shootout. But I think the defenses control enough of the game to keep this in the low 40s. Something around 23-20 makes sense.

Final Picks: Texas +4.5 | Under 45.5