Toledo vs. Bowling Green Picks and Prediction, Saturday, October 11, 2025
Use Code SSWC In a Mid-American Conference game at noon Saturday, Bowling Green (2-3) hosts Toledo (3-2). The Rockets are 1-1 in conference play and have won three of four games, while the Falcons are 0-1 in MAC play and have lost their last two games. In this Toledo vs. Bowling Green prediction, you can get the full score info as well as other free NCAAF picks.
Toledo comes into this game as a double-digit favorite, posted at -10.5 with a total of 50 points.
Offense Turns it Up for Toledo
After only scoring 13 points in a loss, the Toledo offense turned up the heat in their last game in a 45-3 home win over Akron. The Rockets were up 35-3 at the half, outgained the Zips 538 yards to 134 yards, and rushed for 245 yards. Tucker Gleason passed for 237 yards with three TD and no INT, Chip Trayanum led the team with 75 rushing yards, and Junior Vandeross III had a big game with 122 receiving yards and two scores. Toledo covered as a 21-point favorite and is 4-1 ATS on the season.
- Toledo is led by their run game on offense, ranking tied for 21st in the nation in rushing yards per game and 69th in passing yards per game.
- Gleason (925 yards 7 TD 3 INT) has not been picked off or sacked in any of his three wins but has three INT and five sacks in the two losses.
- Trayanum (476 yards 6 TD) has totaled 228 yards in the last two games and is averaging 6.3 yards per carry.
- Vandeross III (380 yards 6 TD) is, by far, the top target, as the player with the second most receiving yards only has 133.
- The Rockets will be facing a Bowling Green defense that ranks 109th against the pass and 65th against the run.
- Toledo has
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Defensive Issues
Bowling Green ranks tied for 83rd in the nation in points against per game (25.8 ppg) and they have given up at least 35 points in each of the last two games. In their last game, they were on the road in a 35-20 loss to Ohio. They were outgained 439 yards to 350 yards and they we gashed, giving up 231 rushing yards. Drew Payne passed for 170 yards with a TD and three picks, Chris McMillian rushed for 89 yards, and Finn Hogan led the way with 50 receiving yards. The Falcons failed to cover as a 7.5-point underdog, and they had covered in their previous three games.
- Bowling Green only ranks 109th in the nation in scoring (22.4 ppg) and ranks 121st in passing yards per game and 68th in rushing yards per game.
- Payne (830 yards 4 TD 5 INT) has all his interceptions in the last two games.
- Two players have at least 194 rushing yards, led by McMillen (226 yards 2 TD).
- No player has over 186 receiving yards.
- The Falcons face a Toledo team that ranks 11th in the nation in defending the pass and 23rd in defending the run.
Toledo vs. Bowling Green Pick
Spread pick for Toledo vs. Bowling Green
- Bowling Green +10.5 (+4 Units)
Bowling Green has lost their last two games while Toledo has won three of their last four games. However, the Falcons have played a tougher schedule and two of their losses came from teams in major conferences. On top of that, last season Bowling Green beat Toledo on the road. The Falcons have won both of their home games this season, where they played good defense. Their defense has had issues but their run D is their strength on that side of the ball. Toledo only has one win against a team that currently has a winning record. Regarding the Toledo vs. Bowling Green prediction, the Rockets may win, but the Falcons will keep it close at home, where they have played well, and cover the big spread.
Over/Under Pick for Toledo vs. Bowling Green
- Under 50
The total has gone Over for Bowling Green’s last two games, but I am leaning towards the Under in this game. Bowling Green has given up at least 35 points in their last two games, but they were on the road. They have won both of their home games, where they played well on the defensive side of the ball. Toledo is high high-scoring team, but in their two losses, they struggled to move the ball. In the game before their last on,e they only scored 13 points facing a 3-3 team. The Rockets will not score big in this gam,e nor will the Falcons, who only rank 109th in the nation in points per game. This will be a lower-scoring game where the run game will take up a lot of the clock, so the Under is the pick.
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