Troy Trojans at UL Monroe Warhawks Picks and Prediction for Saturday, October 18, 2025
Use Code SSWC Troy looks to keep its perfect Sun Belt record intact when it travels to Monroe to face UL Monroe on Saturday at 3:00 PM ET at Malone Stadium. The Trojans have played well of late with back-to-back overtime wins, including a thrilling 48-41 victory over Texas State. UL Monroe returns home after a 23-8 loss to Coastal Carolina and hopes to even its conference mark. Both programs enter Week 8 trending in opposite directions. Your Saturday scout: NCAAF predictions for Troy Trojans at UL Monroe Warhawks you can trust.
Trojans Finding Their Stride Behind Kilcrease’s Arm
Troy has improved its offense as the season has moved along, led by quarterback Tucker Kilcrease, who’s thrown for 831 yards with eight touchdowns and just two interceptions. His 415-yard, five-touchdown performance last week lifted the Trojans from a 17-point deficit to beat Texas State in overtime. The passing game has come alive, with Kilcrease’s favorite target receiver, DJ Epps, who has 255 yards and three scores. Running back Tae Meadows has rushed for 432 yards on 85 carries. Troy’s total offense has been balanced, moving the ball both through the air and on the ground while averaging over 30 points per game in its last three outings.
Defensively, the Trojans have applied pressure on opposing offensive lines, collecting multiple key sacks at critical times during the winning streak. Defensive end Donnie Smith has tallied three sacks, while safety Devin Lafayette leads with 59 tackles. Troy has improved its rush defense since early losses to Clemson and Memphis, keeping opponents under 120 rushing yards per game over its last two. The Trojans have also forced several turnovers in overtime situations.
Troy showed toughness against Texas State, where the Trojans allowed 31 first-half points but surrendered only 10 after the break. The offense gained more than 480 yards in total, while the defense came up with a fourth-down stop to end the game.
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Injuries: Troy has five players listed as questionable, including former starting QB Goose Crowder.
Warhawks Searching for Answers on Offense
UL Monroe enters at 3-3 and 1-1 in the Sun Belt, but has lacked consistency on offense. Quarterback Aidan Armenta has thrown for 749 yards with seven touchdowns and four interceptions, while running back Braylon McReynolds has been the bright spot with 436 yards on 70 carries. Receiver Jonathan Bibbs leads with 156 yards and two scores, but the Warhawks average fewer than 20 points per game in conference play and have struggled sustaining drives, ranking near the bottom of the nation in third-down conversions.
Defensively, UL Monroe has also lacked consistency. The Warhawks allowed 271 yards in the first half alone last week to Coastal Carolina and surrendered 361 total yards by the end of the game. Linebacker Noah Flemmings has 34 tackles, and the defensive line, led by Dylan Howell (four sacks), can pressure the quarterback. The secondary has been vulnerable to deep passes, allowing seven plays of 30 yards or more through six games, an area Troy’s aerial attack could exploit.
The 23-8 loss to Coastal Carolina underscored Louisiana Monroe’s problems on offense. UL Monroe managed just 70 yards in the first half and was outgained 271-70 before halftime. While Armenta found Bibbs for a 27-yard touchdown in the third quarter, the Warhawks were not able to sustain their offense thereafter. The Warhawks’ total offense and rushing offense both rank in the lower half of the Sun Belt, and they’ve scored under 10 points in two straight losses.
Injuries: UL Monroe lists 11 players as questionable. Take the time to review the injuries prior to making any wagering.
Troy Trojans vs. UL Monroe Warhawks Pick
Spread Pick for Troy vs. UL Monroe
- Â Troy -6.5 (4 Units)
Troy’s talent on both sides gives them the advantage, despite playing on the road. Kilcrease has developed a good connection with Epps and Thomas, and the Trojans have averaged nearly 400 total yards per game while tightening the defense in conference play. UL Monroe’s offense has failed to reach 30 points since Week 3 and continues to struggle protecting Armenta behind an injury-plagued line. Troy’s front, led by Smith and Lafayette, should control the line of scrimmage and generate pressure that limits big plays. With the Trojans winning close games against stronger competition, Troy should not have a problem covering the spread. Expect Troy to cover with another strong fourth quarter and extend its Sun Belt win streak.
Over/Under Pick for Troy vs. UL Monroe
- Â Under 46.5 (4 Units)
Troy’s offense has been effective but methodical, using sustained drives that drain the clock, while UL Monroe’s attack ranks near the bottom of the conference in yards per play. The Warhawks have failed to top 23 points in four of six games, and Troy’s defense has allowed only 17 second-half points in its last two contests. Unless turnovers set up short fields, this matchup will be a slower, defensive-minded affair. The total will finish under relatively easily.
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