Troy Trojans vs. ODU Monarchs Picks and Prediction for Thursday, November 13, 2025
ODU hosts Troy Thursday night at S.B. Ballard Stadium in Norfolk at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN. Both teams enter the contest at 6-3. The Monarchs are coming off a commanding 31-6 win over Louisiana-Monroe. The Trojans dropped a 23-10 game to Arkansas State last week that ended a four-game winning streak. College gridiron clarity — NCAAF picks for Troy vs. ODU prediction with key matchups.
Troy Hopes to Bounce Back from Costly Loss
Troy is at 6-3 overall and 4-1 in Sun Belt play. The Trojans failed to generate much offense in the 23-10 home loss to Arkansas State. Quarterback Tucker Kilcrease went 19-for-34 for 166 yards with one interception. The lone score came from Kilcrease on a short rush, but his 17 carries produced negative yardage behind a mediocre offensive line.
On the season, Troy averages 324.2 yards of total offense per game, which is 116th in the nation. Of that total, the passing game averages 203.1 yards while the ground game averages only 121.1 yards per game. Troy averages 27.0 points per game, but inconsistency on early downs has continued to stall drives. The leading rusher for the Trojans is running back Tae Meadows with 546 yards on 113 carries, with four TDs, while wideout Tray Taylor has 20 receptions for 402 yards and three scores.
Defensively, Troy is continuing to hold its own, as opponents average 356.7 yards per game. The pass defense has been stout, allowing a mere 195.6 yards per game (35th), while the rush defense has been somewhat porous at 161.1 yards allowed. The unit is led by defensive end Donnie Smith with 6 sacks and linebacker Jordan Stringer with 83 tackles. Safety Jerome Carter has 64 tackles and has played a key role in defending passes down field.
The Troy defense, which allows 24.1 points per game and ranks 35th in red zone defense, allows scores on 80 percent of opponent trips. On offense, Troy does a good job of managing time of possession, ranking 72nd at 29:46 per game.
Troy's injury list is long; there are several players listed as questionable with undisclosed issues, including linemen Z. Hudson, E. Prather, and G. Langlo; wide receiver J. Thomas; safety R. Carter; and DL C. Fua'au.
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Old Dominion Finding Rhythm Behind Dual-Threat QB
Old Dominion is 6-3 overall and 3-2 in Sun Belt play. The Monarchs are riding back-to-back wins over Appalachian State and Louisiana-Monroe. ODU dominated last time out, handling ULM 31-6 behind another strong outing from quarterback Colton Joseph. He threw for 231 yards on 12-of-22 passing and added 72 rushing yards and three touchdowns on the ground. Joseph’s dual-threat impact has the offense averaging 451.9 total yards per game, which is 24th out of 136 in the FBS.
Joseph has thrown for 2,231 yards with 19 touchdowns and 9 interceptions while rushing for 623 yards and nine scores. His ability to run on set plays and scramble when forced out of the pocket has been a significant weapon. Receiver Tre' Brown III remains his top target with 623 yards and four touchdowns on 29 catches.
The Old Dominion rushing offense is 20th, averaging 201.6 yards per game, and the passing game is 48th with an average of 250.3 yards. The offense uses those totals to score 31.9 points per game, often using sustained drives led by the ground game to wear down opponents. However, the Monarchs have struggled in the red zone, ranking 125th in the FBS, scoring on just 73.7% of drives inside the 20.
The Monarchs give up 367.4 yards per game, which includes 193.6 through the air and 173.9 on the ground. The run defense remains the weak link, but linebacker Jerome Carter and pressure from edge rusher Jeremy Mack Jr. have helped stop drives with a combined 3.5 sacks. The Monarchs allow 23.4 points per game, which is 58th. The Monarchs can control the momentum at home, even though time of possession sits at just 26:38 per game, one of the lowest numbers in the country.
Several Monarchs are listed as questionable, including safety J. Saunders, guard C. Drake, linebacker J. Sheppard, wide receiver T. Myers, and linebacker K. Naotala. Linebacker J. Henderson is out.
Troy Trojans at Old Dominion Monarchs Pick
Spread Pick for Troy vs. ODU
- ODU -10.5 (4 Units)
The balanced offense and home-field advantage give Old Dominion a big advantage in this matchup. The Monarchs' rushing attack has been far more consistent than Troy's, averaging 80+ yards more per game than the Trojans. The ability of Joseph to scramble and extend plays will test a Troy defense that has been solid but not dominant against the run. Meanwhile, Troy's offense remains too one-dimensional against a defense that has steadily improved its coverage. Troy's injuries on the offensive line also make them vulnerable to Old Dominion's front seven. If Joseph plays like he did last week, Old Dominion will control possession and cover the spread.
Over/Under Pick for Troy vs. ODU
- Under 53.5 (4 Units)
While Old Dominion has racked up yardage totals, both the red-zone conversion rate and Troy's tough defense will help this game go under the total. Troy's offense can't sustain many drives, and Old Dominion, when ahead, will often rely on the ground game, which will eat the clock. Troy's defense has been stingy, allowing just 24.1 points per game, while Old Dominion's has allowed 23.4. The combined averages and pace stats put the total in the mid-40s for this game. Unless turnovers give both teams short fields, this will be a grind-it-out type of game.
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