Troy Trojans vs. Texas State Bobcats Picks and Prediction for Saturday, October 11, 2025
Use Code SSWC The Sun Belt schedule is in San Marcos, Texas on Saturday night when the Troy Trojans (3-2, 1-0 Sun Belt) visit the Texas State Bobcats (3-2, 0-1 Sun Belt). Kickoff is at 8:00 p.m. ET on ESPN+ from UFCU Stadium. Both teams enter with identical records. Troy comes in off an overtime win over South Alabama, while Texas State looks to bounce back from a road loss to Arkansas State. Find the edge fast with NCAAF picks for Troy Trojans vs. Texas State Bobcats.
Troy Looks To Build Momentum After Overtime Win
Troy’s season has been a roller coaster, but last week’s 31–24 overtime victory over South Alabama could mark a turning point. Quarterback Tucker Kilcrease led the way with 203 passing yards, two touchdowns, and one interception, adding 102 rushing yards and a score on the ground. His dual-threat ability carried the Trojans to a third win of the year and first in Sun Belt play.
Through five games, Troy is averaging 322.8 total yards per game, ranking 117th nationally, but has managed to stay competitive by leaning on a tough defense. The offense is still finding its way under Kilcrease in for the injured Goose Crowder (shoulder), who has thrown for 416 yards, three touchdowns, and two interceptions while completing 50% of his passes. Running back Tae Meadows leads the ground game with 416 rushing yards and three touchdowns on 75 carries, averaging 5.5 yards per carry. Tray Taylor remains the top target in the passing game with 191 receiving yards and two scores on 11 catches.
Troy’s defense continues to be the strength of the team, ranking 46th nationally in total defense (328.4 yards allowed per game). The Trojans have been particularly strong against the pass, allowing only 170 yards per game (22nd nationally), while the rush defense ranks 96th (158.4 yards allowed per game). The Trojans have held opponents to 23.2 points per game, and the ability to limit big plays has kept them in games despite struggles with the offense. However, Troy has allowed opponents to convert on 40.3% of third downs, an area that could be a problem versus Texas State.
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In last week’s win, the Trojans’ defensive front came up big, making timely stops and creating pressure from Donnie Smith, who leads the team with three sacks. Safety Devin Lafayette has been the leading tackler with 51.
Injuries: Troy has several players listed as questionable, including cornerback Trent Henry, wide receiver Mojo Dortch, guard Garner Langlo, and quarterback Goose Crowder. All are dealing with undisclosed issues.
Texas State Looks To Rebound At Home
Texas State’s high-powered offense has been the key to its 3–2 start, though last week’s 31–30 loss to Arkansas State exposed some defensive problems. Quarterback Brad Jackson was sharp again, completing 18-of-26 passes for 230 yards and a touchdown, while also rushing for 131 yards and another score. Jackson’s dual-threat ability has been the heartbeat of the Bobcats’ attack this season. Jackson is completing 67.2% of his passes for 1,094 yards with seven TDs and just one pick. He also has 259 yards rushing and two TDs.
In last week’s defeat, running back Lincoln Pare had 105 yards and two touchdowns on 21 carries, while Sparks added 58 receiving yards on three catches. Despite racking up 466 total yards, Texas State’s defense could not make stops late, allowing Arkansas State to drive for the winning score.
Through five games, the Bobcats rank 24th in total offense (456.6 yards per game). They’ve been balanced, averaging 221.6 passing yards (78th) and an impressive 235 rushing yards (14th). The average of 35 points per game ranks 39th nationally, showing how effectively they’ve moved the ball. Running back Lincoln Pare has been a workhorse with 468 yards and five touchdowns on 82 carries, while wideout Beau Sparks leads the receiving corps with 428 yards and five scores on 31 catches. The offense also ranks 22nd nationally in third-down conversion rate (49.3%), a key stat against Troy’s defense.
Defensively, the Bobcats have shown weaknesses. They allow 382 yards per game, placing them 88th, with 200 passing yards (53rd) and 182 rushing yards (119th) allowed per game. They’re giving up 26.2 points per game, which has allowed them to keep pace with their fast-paced offense.
Injuries: Texas State enters this week with a lengthy injury report. Nine players are listed as questionable, while defensive lineman Jo’Laison Landry remains out..
Troy Trojans vs. Texas State Bobcats Pick
Spread Pick for Troy vs. Texas State
- Texas State -9.5 (4 Units)
Texas State’s balance on offense and home-field advantage give the Bobcats a clear advantage. They rank 14th in rushing offense and 39th in scoring, while Troy sits 103rd in points per game and has struggled to sustain drives. The Bobcats’ offensive line has been dominant in creating running lanes for Pare and space for Jackson to scramble, and that dual-threat element has been tough for opponents to contain. Troy’s defense will keep this competitive early, but the Trojans’ inconsistencies on offense are concerning. Averaging only 322.8 yards per game, Troy is unlikely to keep pace with Texas State’s explosive attack.
Over/Under Pick for Troy vs. Texas State
- Over 53.5 (5 Units)
Both teams have shown they can move the ball effectively, and the statistical matchup moves toward a high-scoring game. Texas State averages 35 points per game, while Troy has scored at least 31 points in two of its last three contests. The Bobcats’ defense has been porous against the run, and Troy’s mobile quarterback Kilcrease could exploit that weakness. On the other side, Jackson and Pare have powered one of the Sun Belt’s most effective rushing attacks, and the Trojans’ front seven—ranked just 96th against the run—faces a tough test. Expect sustained offense on both sides and enough scoring to push this one over the number.
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