Troy vs Utah State Picks and Prediction for Saturday September 26 2026

By: Kim Smith Published 09/20/2026, 11:55 PM ET

The Troy Trojans visit the Utah State Aggies at Merlin Olsen Field at Maverik Stadium in Logan, Utah, on Saturday, September 26, 2026. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 PM ET with coverage on CBS Sports Network. Troy enters at 2-1 after suffering its first loss of the season, 27-17 at No. 20 Missouri, while Utah State is 0-3 after being shut out 33-0 at No. 17 Utah. Both teams step down considerably in competition after facing ranked opponents, creating one of the more intriguing Group of Five games on Saturday’s schedule. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free college football picks for more NCAAF predictions throughout the season.

Troy Showed It Can Compete Against Better Competition

Troy opened with a 24-21 victory over Sam Houston and followed with a 34-17 win over Alabama State. The Trojans then traveled to Missouri and suffered a 27-17 loss against a nationally ranked SEC opponent. A 10-point road defeat against Missouri is considerably different from being overwhelmed, and Troy enters this matchup with the stronger early-season résumé.

The Trojans have scored at least 17 points in all three games and have not allowed more than 27. That consistency matters against a Utah State offense that is coming off a shutout. Troy does not need to dominate the Aggies; it simply needs another balanced performance and enough defensive discipline to force Utah State to earn its points through sustained drives.

The concern is the second consecutive road trip and the altitude in Logan. Troy just played at Missouri and now travels west for another difficult environment. That gives Utah State a legitimate situational advantage, but the Trojans have demonstrated considerably more offensive stability through three games.

Utah State Returns Home Desperate for an Offensive Breakthrough

Utah State is 0-3 after losing 33-0 at Utah. The Aggies have faced a demanding early schedule that included consecutive road trips to Washington and Utah, so returning to Maverik Stadium is significant. This is also their final nonconference game before beginning Pac-12 play.

The shutout in Salt Lake City is the major concern. Utah State was unable to establish enough offensive consistency to threaten Utah, and now it faces a Troy defense that has allowed 21, 17 and 27 points. The Aggies need a major improvement on early downs to avoid placing themselves in obvious passing situations.

Home field keeps Utah State interesting, especially if oddsmakers install Troy as a road favorite. However, the Aggies have yet to show enough offensive production to justify trusting them outright. Troy’s ability to stay competitive at Missouri provides the stronger recent indicator.