Tulsa Golden Hurricane vs Memphis Tigers Prediction and Picks - October 4th, 2025
Use Code SSWC Saturday night AAC College Football action, and we have a Tulsa vs Memphis Prediction ready to rock and roll. Tulsa enters this game off a 31-14 home loss to Tulane, which dropped them to 2-3 on the season. Memphis has raced out to a 5-0 start this year, and they come in off a strong 55-26 road win over FAU. Can the Tigers remain perfect on the year? Read on to see our Tulsa vs Memphis prediction.
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Tulsa Falls At Home To Tulane
Tulsa enters this AAC road test off a 31–14 loss to Tulane, where the offense managed just 337 total yards and struggled to finish drives. Quarterback Baylor Hayes has thrown for 782 yards, four touchdowns, and three interceptions while completing 60.8% of his passes. Running back Dominic Richardson remains the workhorse, logging 490 yards on 98 carries, but he’s averaging just 3.4 yards per attempt over the last two games. Zion Booker leads the receiving corps with 277 yards on 32 catches, but Tulsa ranks just 106th in scoring offense (21.0 PPG) and 70th in total offense (393 YPG).
The Golden Hurricane have converted just 36.6% of third downs and rank 102nd in red zone efficiency, scoring on 78.6% of trips. They’ve committed eight turnovers and 30 penalties for 210 yards, often stalling momentum before drives reach scoring range. Tulsa’s offensive line has struggled to create push, and explosive plays have been rare—just six completions over 30 yards through five games. If Hayes can avoid negative plays and Richardson finds rhythm early, Tulsa has a path to stay competitive, but they’ll need near-perfect execution against a Memphis team that’s rolling.
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Defensively, Tulsa has been middle-of-the-pack, allowing 22.6 points per game and 370.4 total yards. The pass defense has held opponents to 191.2 yards per game and just three touchdowns, but the run defense has been porous—giving up 179.2 rushing yards per game and 11 touchdowns on the ground. The front seven has struggled to generate pressure, and opponents are converting 44.2% of third downs. If Tulsa can’t contain Memphis’ ground game or force Brendon Lewis into long-yardage situations, the defense could wear down quickly.
Tigers Crush FAU To Stay Perfect
Memphis comes in undefeated after a 55–26 rout of Florida Atlantic, where quarterback Brendon Lewis accounted for four total touchdowns and Gregroy Desrosiers exploded for 204 rushing yards and three scores. Lewis has thrown for 1,003 yards, five touchdowns, and two interceptions while completing 66.9% of his passes. He’s also added 60+ rushing yards in three straight games. Sutton Smith and Desrosiers form one of the most productive backfields in the AAC, combining for over 600 rushing yards and eight touchdowns. Cortez Braham leads the receiving corps with 382 yards and four scores.
The Tigers rank 15th nationally in scoring offense (39.6 PPG) and 31st in total offense (447.8 YPG), with a run-heavy identity that’s averaging 247.2 rushing yards per game—11th in the FBS. Memphis has converted 117 first downs and scored on 92.9% of red zone trips, showing efficiency and balance. They’ve committed just five turnovers and 24 penalties, and they’ve covered the spread in all five games. If Lewis continues to distribute cleanly and Desrosiers finds early lanes, Memphis has the firepower to build margin quickly.
Defensively, Memphis has allowed just 18.0 points per game and ranks 49th in total defense (326 YPG). The run defense has been elite—just 91.4 yards per game allowed, ranking 22nd nationally—and opponents are averaging just 2.6 yards per carry. The secondary has given up 234.6 passing yards per game but tightened up in the red zone, allowing scores on just 76.9% of trips. Linebacker Chandler Martin leads the unit with 34 tackles, and the Tigers have forced five turnovers. If Memphis controls the trenches and wins early downs, they’re built to dominate this matchup.
Tulsa vs Memphis Pick
Tulsa vs Memphis Spread Pick
- Memphis -20.5 (5 Units)
Memphis -20.5 is a strong position against a Tulsa team that’s struggling to finish drives and stop the run. The Tigers have covered in all five games this season and enter with one of the most efficient ground attacks in the AAC, averaging 247.2 rushing yards per game. Brendon Lewis has been sharp through the air and dangerous on the move, while Gregroy Desrosiers and Sutton Smith give Memphis a two-headed backfield that’s built to wear down soft fronts. Tulsa’s defense has allowed 11 rushing touchdowns and nearly 180 yards per game on the ground—Memphis has the personnel to exploit that early and often.
Tulsa’s offense has been inconsistent, converting under 37% of third downs and scoring on less than 80% of red zone trips. Baylor Hayes has struggled under pressure, and the Golden Hurricane have committed eight turnovers and 30 penalties through five games. Memphis, meanwhile, ranks top-15 nationally in scoring and has allowed just 18.0 points per game. If the Tigers control tempo and field position, they’re built to cover three scores with room to spare. With superior trench play and red zone execution, Memphis has the edge to dominate both halves.
Tulsa vs Memphis Over/Under Pick
- Over 56.5 (4 Units)
Over 56.5 is well-positioned in a matchup featuring a Memphis offense averaging nearly 40 points per game and a Tulsa defense that’s allowed 22+ in four of five contests. Brendon Lewis and Gregroy Desrosiers headline a Tigers attack that ranks top-15 nationally in scoring and top-10 in rushing, while Tulsa has quietly moved the ball between the 20s despite red zone struggles. With Memphis capable of building margin and Tulsa likely to play catch-up through the air, game flow favors a high total—especially if the Tigers hit early explosives and force tempo.
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