Tulsa Golden Hurricane vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys Prediction and Picks - September 19, 2025
Oklahoma State will host Tulsa this Friday night for Week 4 of the 2025 college football season, and we'll preview the lines and odds in our Tulsa vs. Oklahoma State prediction. Both teams will be looking for a win after a dismal recent history—Tulsa is 2-8 in their last ten games; Oklahoma State is 1-9 in theirs. Kickoff for this meeting is set for 7:30 PM ET on Friday, September 19.
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Can Tulsa upset reeling OSU team?
Tulsa is three games into their run with head coach Tre Lamb, who's in his first year as an FBS coach after a successful run at Gardner-Webb and a year at East Tennessee State. He succeeded Kevin Wilson at the helm of the Golden Hurricane after the latter led them to a 3-8 record in 2025 and a 7-16 overall record in his nearly two-year run. So far, Lamb's team is 1-2; they followed a 35-7 win against FCS Abilene Christian to open the season with a 14-21 loss at New Mexico State and a 23-42 loss to Navy.
For a glorious couple of minutes, Tulsa led Navy 14-0 in the first quarter of last week's meeting. Each of the Midshipmen's first three drives ended in turnovers, and Tulsa turned two of them into touchdowns–a run from senior back Dominic Richardson and another from freshman quarterback Baylor Hayes. The scoring dried up when Navy began responding, however, and the Midshipmen scored touchdowns on five straight drives through the second and third quarters. In the same stretch of time, the Golden Hurricane only managed to convert one field goal, turning the ball over on downs to end two straight drives at the end of the third quarter.
The Golden Hurricane didn't cover as two-touchdown underdogs, but they managed to make an enjoyable game out of a meeting with the Midshipmen that no one expected them to win. We'll see if they can bring the same intrigue to Friday's game against an Oklahoma State team that's struggled mightily in recent memory.
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How will the Cowboys follow Oregon loss?
Oklahoma State enjoyed a much-needed bye last week after suffering an embarrassing road loss to Oregon on September 6. The Cowboys weren't expected to do much against the Ducks, who entered the week at No. 6 in the AP Top 25 and had to win by 28.5 to cover, but the 69-3 defeat they endured was hard to watch for anyone beyond Oregon fans. It's an especially tough loss for Cowboys head coach Mike Gundy, who finished the 2024-25 season with nine straight losses in conference play and had made unsolicited critical remarks about the Ducks on his radio show. The 66-point loss is the worst of the Gundy era at Oklahoma State – which began in 2005 – and the worst the Cowboys had seen since 1907.
How Oklahoma State responds this week against Tulsa—who OSU beat 45-10 last year in their most recent win against an FBS opponent—may prove pivotal in how Gundy and the Cowboys proceed. The team had a bye week to prepare for this matchup, and they enter as 11.5-point favorites despite their recent losing history and injury concerns. Freshman quarterback Zane Flores was forced into the lineup in the team's opener against UT-Martin after an injury to Hauss Hejny, and completed his first game with an efficient but uninspiring box score: 13 of 20 for 136 yards, no touchdowns or interceptions, and two sacks. Against Oregon, he threw two interceptions and took two more sacks, while completing only 36.8 percent of his 19 passes for an average of 3.5 yards per attempt.
The Cowboys, as an overall operation, should look significantly better against the Golden Hurricane. For Gundy's sake, they might need to.
Tulsa vs Oklahoma State Pick
Spread Pick for Tulsa vs Oklahoma State
- Tulsa +11.5 (-110) (4 Units)
I'd still expect Oklahoma State to win this game outright, but it's been a long time since we've seen them cover a double-digit spread against an opponent they were expected to beat. To be precise, it's been since their 2024 meeting with Tulsa. They've only covered the spread once in the 11 games they've played since: when they lost 35-38 to BYU in a game they entered as eight-point underdogs. This season opened with the Cowboys failing to cover a 26-point spread at home against FCS UT Martin; I'd expect Tulsa to make them work for it this time.
Over/Under Pick for Tulsa vs Oklahoma State
- Over 54.5 (-110) (4 Units)
The Team Total Over is 7-3 in the Golden Hurricane's last ten games and 6-4 in the Cowboys' last ten. Most of those games were losses these teams suffered by double-digit margins, but they still managed to put up points; the loss Oklahoma State took against Oregon two weeks ago is a historical outlier. The total here is just low enough that the last meeting between these teams – which the Cowboys won 45-10 – would've gone over. I'd take the over and expect these teams to find a way to put the points on the board.
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