UAB vs. Navy Prediction and Picks – September 6, 2025
The UAB Blazers will visit the Navy Midshipmen this Saturday for an early AAC conference matchup, and we'll preview the lines and odds in our UAB vs. Navy prediction. Both teams hosted non-major opponents in Week 1–UAB won a shootout with Alabama State, while Navy systematically routed Virginia Military Institute. Kickoff for Saturday's Week 2 game is at 3:30 PM ET.
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Can UAB Rise in Dilfer's Third Year?
It's been nearly three years since the UAB Blazers lured former NFL quarterback and media analyst Trent Dilfer to Birmingham to sign him as their head football coach. Since taking the job, Dilfer has led the Blazers to an 8-17 record – 4-8 in 2023, 3-9 in 2024, and a 1-0 start in 2025 after the team's 52-42 track meet against the Alabama State Hornets. Giving up 42 points against a standard FCS opponent – ASU went 7-5 overall and 5-3 against conference opponents in 2024 – isn't a great way to open the season for the UAB defense, but the team did well to start 1-0 after failing to in each of Dilfer's first two seasons.
Jalen Kitna – a senior quarterback in his second year at UAB after taking his first college snaps at Florida, and the son of former NFL quarterback Jon Kitna – completed 18 of 23 passes in Week 1 for 247 yards and two touchdowns. Running backs Jevon Jackson and Solomon Beebe combined to take 25 carries for 217 yards and four touchdowns. The Blazers' offense was dominant against the Hornets, converting 24 first downs while only making it to third down seven times – successfully converting on four of them. They could've won this game by a substantially wider margin if the Blazers' defense didn't allow the Hornets to convert on 13 of 15 third-down attempts – a jarring number against any opponent, least of all an FCS team.
Behind Dilfer are offensive coordinator Alex Mortensen and defensive coordinator Steve Russ. Mortensen has been in Birmingham for Dilfer's entire run, in his first gig as an offensive coordinator after working as an analyst for the Alabama Crimson Tide from 2017 to 22 and as the receivers coach for the AAF Birmingham Iron in 2019. Russ is in his first year after replacing Sione Ta'ufu'ou, now an assistant defensive coach for the California Golden Bears.
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How Will Navy Build on Dominant 2024?
The Navy Midshipmen enjoyed an exceptional season in 2024, competing at the top of a top-heavy American Athletic Conference with Army, Memphis, and Tulane. They finished the year 10-3 overall and 6-2 in conference play, upsetting a ranked (No. 22) Army team 31-13 in their annual end-of-season meeting before securing a 21-20 win over Oklahoma in the Armed Forces Bowl.
Heading into 2025, Brian Newberry is in his third season as the team's head coach. Offensive coordinator Drew Cronic returns for his second year; defensive coordinator P.J. Volker for his third. Early returns look promising after the Midshipmen dismantled FCS VMI 52-7 in Week 1, covering a 42-point spread and almost single-handedly hitting the over on a 53-point total line. Navy led VMI 28-0 by halftime–by the end of the game, Braxton Woodson came off the bench to rack up 180 rushing yards and two touchdowns on only seven carries. Overall, Navy finished with 468 yards and six touchdowns on the ground. Entering Week 2, they're only four yards behind BYU for the highest per-game rushing average in the FBS, and they're one of only three teams to have six rushing touchdowns and only one game in the books.
UAB vs. Navy Pick
Spread Pick for UAB vs. Navy
- Navy -21.0 (-110) (4 Units)
Navy has dominated their matchup with UAB since the Blazers signed Dilfer and joined the AAC in 2023. Their first meeting saw Navy enter as 2.5-point underdogs before routing UAB 31-6. Their second meeting ended with the Midshipmen turning a game they entered as 4.5-point favorites into a 41-18 victory. Overall, Navy went 9-4 against the spread in '24 while UAB only went 5-6-1. While this is the largest spread Navy has been asked to cover against UAB yet, it's a spread they would've covered in each of those last two meetings. I'd take them to do it again, even assuming that UAB improves this season.
Over/Under Pick for UAB vs. Navy
- Over 58.5 (-110) (5 Units)
The Blazers are coming off a game against an FCS opponent in which both teams combined to score 94 points. The Midshipmen are coming off a game in which they scored 52 points despite only completing nine forward passes for 92 yards, and they're coming off a 2024 season where the Team Total Over hit in each of their first seven games. There's a mathematical chance of this game going under the total, but I'd be hard-pressed to bet anything on it.
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