UCF Knights vs. Baylor Bears, Preview, Odds, Prediction and Picks – Saturday, November 1
The Baylor Bears will host the UCF Knights this Saturday, and we'll preview the lines and odds in our UCF vs. Baylor prediction. The Knights are coming off a bye after beating West Virginia 45-13 at home, while the Bears are returning home after road losses to TCU (42-36) and Cincinnati (41-20). Kickoff is set for 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, November 1.
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UCF dominates battered West Virginia team
The UCF Knights enter Week 10 at 4-3 overall but only 1-3 in Big 12 conference play, ranking them 13th out of 16 teams in the conference standings. They dropped three straight games to Kansas State (34-20), Kansas (27-20), and Cincinnati (20-11) to open their Big 12 schedule, but they rebounded with a 45-13 win over West Virginia in Week 8 and took a bye in Week 9.
West Virginia, a team with several players lost to injury and little hope of being competitive in 2025, looked the part against UCF. The Knights' offense gained 578 yards while their defense allowed only 210. Mountaineers freshman quarterback Scotty Fox Jr. completed only six of 17 passes for 47 yards, finishing with a 35.3 completion percentage and 2.8 yards per attempt, while the Knights' defense sacked him five times. Overall, UCF finished with eight sacks, seven pass defenses, and a defensive touchdown after linebacker Keli Lawson returned a fumble 32 yards to the endzone.
Tayven Jackson completed 23 of 34 passes in this game for 277 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception. He bounced back nicely after missing the team's loss to Cincinnati, posting his first multiple-touchdown game since the Knights beat Jacksonville State 17-10 in August. It's fair to wonder whether Jackson is playing at full health–he's taken multiple injuries this season, and he's vanished from the team's ground game after taking a carry for over ten yards in three of the Knights' first four games. Not that he needed to run in this one–Jaden Nixon gained 116 yards and two touchdowns on only seven carries, and Myles Montgomery took 14 carries for 88 yards. Freshman quarterback Davi Belfort led the team on their final scoring drive in the fourth quarter, throwing for 35 yards while running for 30 yards and a touchdown of his own.
Jackson has passed for 1,183 yards this season with five TDs and a pick.
The Knights are led defensively by an outstanding pass defense that ranks sixth in the nation (146.3ypg).
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Baylor loses two straight amid underwhelming passing performances
The Baylor Bears are 4-4 overall this season and 2-3 against Big 12 opponents, ranking them 10th in the conference standings. They're fifth out of 136 FBS teams in passing yards per game (318.4) and 35th in points per game (34.3), but they're coming off consecutive losses against TCU (42-36) and No. 21 Cincinnati (41-20) in which the offense looked inefficient.
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Rob Vincilleti | +450.00 |
| 2 |  Sean Higgs | +327.00 |
| 3 |  David Delano | +182.00 |
| 4 |  Stephen Nover | +100.00 |
| 5 |  Terry Edelmann | +100.00 |
Baylor was held to 266 total yards against Cincinnati, committed two turnovers, and ended two more drives in unsuccessful fourth-down plays. They didn't score their first points until the end of the first half, when they executed a 75-yard touchdown drive to cut the Bearcats' lead to 24-6. Baylor didn't convert a two-point attempt until their third touchdown, in the fourth quarter, when they briefly cut the lead to 27-20 and made it a one-score game. Cincinnati quickly answered with a 75-yard touchdown drive, a takeaway on the ensuing kickoff, and a second touchdown to put the game at 41-20. Bears kicker Connor Hawkins has only missed one field goal attempt this season, and he wasn't on the team's injury report in Week 9–nor is he on it ahead of Week 10, nor is there any indication that one of the team's two longsnappers was injured. Why they refused to kick field goals, either for extra points or on fourth down from within reasonable range, remains unclear.
Sawyer Robertson completed 18 of 26 passes for 137 yards and two touchdowns, marking his highest completion percentage of the season (69.2%) but setting new season-low marks in both attempts and yardage. It's a striking departure from the Bears' performance against TCU the week prior, in which Robertson threw the ball twice as many times but completed only 48.1 percent of his passes. Neither game produced a stat line for Robertson that typically correlates with winning football games. He remains atop the FBS leaderboard in passing yards (2,513) and second only to Indiana's Fernando Mendoza in touchdowns (23), but his marks in completion percentage (61.7) and yards per attempt (7.7) are a long way from the top of the board.
UCF vs. Baylor Pick
Spread Pick for UCF vs. Baylor
- UCF +3.5 (-110) (4 Units)
The Knights are entering this game after a Week 9 bye, and they vastly outperformed the oddsmakers' projections as 6.5-point favorites in their most recent 45-13 win over West Virginia. Baylor doesn't have anything resembling positive momentum–they've lost each of their last two games, looked good in neither, and haven't covered a spread since beating SMU 48-45 in September. UCF isn't perfect, but they're not a team I'd comfortably take Baylor to beat by more than a field goal right now. The Bears need a get-right game, and UCF isn't bad enough to give that to them.
Over/Under Pick for UCF vs. Baylor
- Under 60.5 (-105) (4 Units)
The only 60-point game UCF has been part of this season is their 68-7 rout of FCS North Carolina A&T in September. The Team Total Under is 4-3 in their games, and their highest pregame total this season is the 55.5 line they saw before their 20-11 loss to Cincinnati. UCF's defense is very underrated and they have the pass defense to slow down the Baylor passing game. This game won't be high-scoring unless the Baylor offense forces it to be, and their last two games don't inspire much confidence in that unit.
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