UCF Knights vs. Kansas State Wildcats Prediction and Picks – Saturday, September 27, 2025
The UCF Knights will visit the Kansas State Wildcats this Saturday, and we'll preview the lines and odds in our UCF vs. Kansas State prediction. The Knights enter this matchup undefeated after their 34-9 home win over North Carolina last week, while the Wildcats are 1-3 after brutally underperforming expectations through the first four weeks of the season. Kickoff is set for 12:00 PM ET at Bill Snyder Family Stadium on Saturday, September 27.
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Can Knights take early success on the road?
The UCF Knights are 3-0 through the early going of the 2025 season, and rank on the fringe of college football's top teams after earning three AP Top 25 votes heading into Week 5. They're coming off a 34-9 home win over the North Carolina Tar Heels in a game they were favored to win by only a touchdown, which helped to contextualize the strength of the Knights after their 17-10 win over Jacksonville State and their 68-7 win over North Carolina A&T to open the season. They'll be making their first road trip of the season to face Kansas State – can the Knights continue winning away from Central Florida campus, against a Wildcats team that's already suffered two conference losses?
The Knights controlled their 34-9 win against UNC throughout the game, scoring ten points in the first quarter and outscoring the Tar Heels 20-3 in the first half. Junior quarterback Tayven Jackson completed 25 of 32 passes for 223 yards and a touchdown – 78.1 completion percentage, 7.0 yards per attempt, no interceptions thrown or sacks taken. He also contributed 66 yards and a touchdown to a ground attack that racked up 143 yards and three touchdowns on 34 total carries. UCF finished the game with 366 yards gained and only 217 yards allowed, 23 first downs, and successfully converted four times on fourth down.
It'd be remiss to preview the Knights' upcoming game without mentioning the unfortunate news of Shawn Clark's passing. Clark, the team's first-year offensive line coach, was hospitalized on September 9 after a medical emergency and died Sunday, September 22, at age 50.
“The best thing you can do is to keep going,” UCF head coach Scott Frost said, among other things, while speaking to reporters on Wednesday for the first time since Clark's passing. That'll be the Knights' unenviable challenge, for this week and the rest of the 2025 season.
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What's wrong with the Wildcats?
The Kansas State Wildcats are 1-3 heading into Week 5 of the '25 college football season, with all four games coming down to six or fewer points. Charitably, that can be spun as the Wildcats being a few lucky breaks short of a 4-0 record with a win over a ranked Iowa State team. Less charitably: this team needed every break they got to win at home over FCS North Dakota, and they are one improbable fourth-quarter drive removed from looking to all the world like one of the worst teams in the FBS.
Kansas State lost ugly to Arizona last week – the final score was 17-23, but the other numbers tell a much more lopsided story. Kansas State gained only 193 yards of offense while allowing 412, gained only eight first downs while allowing Arizona to gain 21, converted only three of 13 third downs, and lost each of four attempts to move the sticks on fourth down. Junior receiver Jayce Brown finished the game with 68 yards on six catches and one 75-yard touchdown run, which sounds great until you remember what it says about the rest of the offense in a game where the team gained only 193 yards. The Arizona defense recorded a sack, nine tackles for loss, and eight pass breakups against an Arizona team that – putting aside Brown's rushing touchdown and his 31-yard catch – moved the ball 87 yards on 28 pass attempts and 23 carries.
Somehow, the Wildcats enter this game as six-point favorites at home. They're 0-4 against the spread this season.
UCF vs. Kansas State Pick
Spread Pick for UCF vs. Kansas State
- Central Florida +6.0 (-110) (5 Units)
The Kansas State Wildcats, despite going 1-3 through their first four games and 0-4 against the spread, are favored to win this game by a touchdown at home. They've covered the spread only once in their last ten games dating back to last season, and they're coming off a ghastly effort at moving the ball against Arizona. The UCF Knights just followed a 68-7 demolition of North Carolina A&T with a slightly less one-sided 34-9 demolition of North Carolina. This might be the game where the Wildcats turn things around, but taking that bet requires a leap of faith that isn't remotely supported by what these teams have put on the field.
Over/Under Pick for UCF vs. Kansas State
- Under 49.5 (-110) (4 Units)
The Team Total Under is 2-1 through UCF games this season, 3-1 through Kansas State games, and 5-0 through both teams' games when filtering out FCS opponents. The Wildcats have been remarkably consistent in their scoring outputs this season, losing 21-24 to both Iowa State and Army before losing 17-23 against Arizona. The Knights haven't allowed an opponent to score over ten points this season.
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