UL Monroe vs. Southern Miss Picks and Prediction, Saturday, October 25, 2025
Use Code SSWC In a Sun Belt West Division Clash at M. M. Roberts Stadium in Hattiesburg, Mississippi, Southern Miss hosts UL Monroe.
Southern Miss (5-2, 3-0 Sun Belt) is hot, winners of three in a row and they are tied with Troy, who they host in the season finale, atop the West Division. UL Monroe (3-4, 1-2 Sun Belt) is just the opposite of Southern Miss, dropping their last three games. Get ready for a ton of info and matchups in this UL Monroe vs. Southern Miss prediction.
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Southern Miss is a big favorite in this conference game, posted at -12 with a total of 50.5.
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Big Time Scoring Issue for UL Monroe
On the season, UL Monroe ranks 131st out of 136 FBS teams in scoring (16.7 ppg) and in their three-game skid, they have only averaged 9.7 ppg. In their last game, they were at home in a 37-14 loss to Troy, where they had more yards (326 to 314), but they committed four turnovers and did not force any. Aidan Armenta passed for 171 yards with a TD and two INT, Zach Palmer-Smith rushed for 78 yards, and Jonathan Bibbs had 60 receiving yards to lead the way. The Warhawks failed to cover as a 4.5-point underdog and have failed to cover the spread in their last three games.
ULM not only has issues on the offensive side of the ball, but they also rank tied for 112th in points allowed per game (30.9 ppg). They are led by their run game (56th in rushing yards per game), while only ranking 127th in passing yards per game. Armenta (920 yards 8 TD 2 INT) has three TD and has three picks, and has been sacked seven times in the last three games. Braylon McReynolds (437 yards 2 TD) is the leading rusher and is listed as questionable after being injured in the last game after only one carry. If he cannot go, Palmer-Smith (244 yards 1 TD) will be the main back and in the last two games has totaled 105 yards. The Warhawks will face a Southern Miss defense that ranks 90th in the nation against the pass and 73rd against the run.
ULM has been hampered by injuries all over the team and now it's impacting their quarterback situation. Armenta (undisclosed) is doubtful for this game and Hunter Herring (undisclosed) is also doubtful. That means Landon Graves, a 5-11 sophomore, who has thrown just 13 passes in two seasons.
Defense Does the Job for Southern Miss
In their last game, Southern Miss was on the road, and their defense was legit in a 22-10 win over Louisiana. While they outgained the Ragin’ Cajuns 370 yards to 352 yards and forced three turnovers, they committed two turnovers, gave up 221 rushing yards, and were only 2-13 on third down. Braylon Braxton passed for 238 yards with a TD and a pick, Jeffery Pittman rushed for 73 yards, and Micah Davis had 134 receiving yards and a TD. The Golden Eagles covered the spread as a 5-point favorite and they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games.
On the season, Southern Miss ranks tied for 53rd in the nation in scoring (30.7 ppg) and 75th in points against per game (25.1 ppg). Braxton (1,710 yards 14 TD, 4 INT) has five TD and only one INT in the last three games. Pittman (419 yards 6 TD) has totaled 213 yards and two TD in the last two games. The Golden Eagles have five players with at least 200 receiving yards, led by Davis (285 yards 4 TD). Southern Miss is 3-1 at home with their only loss coming in their opener, facing Mississippi State from the SEC.
UL Monroe vs. Southern Miss Pick
Spread Pick for UL Monroe vs. Southern Miss
- Southern Miss -12 (+4 Units)
Southern Miss has run the table in the Sun Belt, winning their first three conference games, while UL Monroe is 1-2 in conference play and has lost three in a row. The Warhawks are one of the lowest scoring teams in the nation (16.7 ppg), and in their three-game skid, they are averaging under 10 ppg. The Warhawks might be down to their third-string quarterback, which is never a good thing when it comes to covering or winning games. The Golden Eagles did not kill it on offense in their last game, scoring 22 points but they only gave up 10 points. In their last two home game,s they have totaled 80 points and face a ULM defense that only ranks tied for 112th, giving up an average of 30.9 ppg. The Warhawks have a decent run attack, but their lead RB was injured in their last game and is listed as questionable. When it comes to the UL Monroe vs. Southern Miss, the Golden Eagles will dominate from the get-go, and they will easily win and cover the double-digit spread.
Over/Under Pick for UL Monroe vs. Southern Miss
- Over 50.5 (4 units)
The last game went Under for Southern Miss and Over for UL Monroe and I am leaning towards the Over in this game. The Golden Eagles scored 22 points in their last game, but they have totaled 80 points in their last two home games. They will light up the scoreboard in this game, facing a ULM defense that is giving up an average of over 30 ppg. The Warhawks are a very low-scoring team, but while not putting up a high total they will put up a decent one. In their last game, they put up 326 yards and while scoring only 14 points, they had four turnovers. Bottom line, Southern Miss will score big in this game and that is the main reason the Over is the pick.
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