UMass Minutemen vs. Ohio Bobcats Picks and Prediction for Tuesday, November 18, 2025
The Minutemen (0-10, 0-6 MAC) hit the road to Peden Stadium at 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday seeking its first win of the year, while Ohio looks to bounce back from a loss to Western Michigan in this UMass vs. Western Michigan prediction. The Minutemen are 0-10 and have continued to struggle on both sides of the ball after getting dominated by Northern Illinois 45-3. Ohio is 6-4 (4-2 MAC) and hoping to break from a five-team tie for second place in the MAC. The temperatures are expected to be in the low 40s with potential rain. Before kickoff: NCAAF predictions for the UMass Minutemen at Ohio Bobcats in one clean snapshot.
UMass Look To Stop the Slide
UMass is a disappointing 0-10 with a 0-6 mark in MAC play and one of the least productive offenses in the FBS. They haven't won a game since last season and haven't defeated an FBS team since 2023. They've also covered just twice in the last 10 games. The Minutemen average 246.3 total yards per game, including 166.8 through the air and only 79.5 on the ground.
Quarterback AJ Hairston has thrown for 957 yards with four touchdowns and four interceptions on 49.8 percent passing. He and Brandon Rose both played last game in their blowout loss to Northern Illinois. Rose has thrown just 82 passes this season for 390 yards and has no TDs and two picks. The ground game has never come up to speed this season, with Brandon Hood leading at 320 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 83 carries. Jacquon Gibson has been the lone bright spot in the passing game, hauling in 48 catches for 457 yards. He had a season-high six grabs for 64 yards in last week's loss to Northern Illinois. UMass is scoring just 10.5 points per game and ranks dead last nationally in red zone success at 59.1 percent.
The defense is struggling as much as the offense, yielding 440.9 yards per game and 37.6 points per contest. Opponents are averaging 239.4 passing yards along with 201.5 rushing yards, which isn't exactly an encouraging number when facing the run-heavy offense of Ohio. UMass ranks near the bottom nationally in third-down defense at 47.3 percent. Tyler Martin leads with 81 tackles, and Marques White has five sacks. Injuries are still the big concern for UMass, though.
The latest game of UMass ended as the previous nine did, with a loss. UMass fell 45-3 to Northern Illinois, ending with 101 passing yards and minimal production on the ground. Rose threw for 101 yards, while Hairston added 23 rushing yards and a short reception.
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Key Injury Report for UMass
- CB T.J. Magee (undisclosed is questionable
- TE Reece Adkins (undisclosed) is questionable. Has 7 catches for 109 yards
- WR Tyree Kelly (undisclosed) is questionable. Has 11 catches for 95 yards.
Bobcats Make Push For Seven Wins
Ohio comes in at 6-4 and 4-2 in the MAC with an offense averaging 410.3 yards per game, which means they are bowl eligible. The Bobcats average 202.7 rushing yards per contest, one of the better marks in the country, while adding 207.6 yards through the air. They score 27.1 points per game through a steady approach dependent on early-down success via their strong running game.
Quarterback Parker Navarro has thrown for 2,057 yards with 12 touchdowns and nine interceptions on 63.8 percent passing. Navarro had a tough game through the air against Western Michigan with 70 yards and one interception, but made up for it on the ground with 105 rushing yards and a touchdown. Sieh Bangura remains the focal point on the ground with 927 yards and 11 touchdowns on 172 carries.
Chase Hendricks leads the receivers with 858 yards on 62 catches and six touchdowns, providing Ohio with a consistent perimeter option when the running game isn't flowing. Ohio converts 43.1 percent of its third downs. Ohio allows 371.1 yards of total offense per game, with 216.1 passing and 155 on the ground. Opponents only score 23.5 points per game and the red zone defense is among the best in the nation at 75.8 percent. Jay Crable leads with five sacks and Jalen Thomeson has a team-high 65 tackles.
Ohio's last outing was a 17-13 loss to Western Michigan. The run game produced 202 combined yards from Navarro and Bangura, and the defense was able to hold the Broncos to 17 points. The performance was solid enough to provide confidence going into Tuesday's matchup with UMass.
Key Injury Report for Ohio
- LB Michael Molnar (undisclosed) is questionable. Has 62 tackles and 1.5 sacks.
Massachusetts Minutemen at Ohio Bobcats Pick
Spread Pick for UMass vs. Ohio
- Ohio -32.5 (4 Units)
Ohio controls every key category in this matchup against what might be the worst FBS team in the nation. The Bobcats outgain UMass by over 160 yards per game and bring a dominant run game that matches up well against a defense giving up 201.5 rushing yards per contest. That red zone gap is even larger as UMass ranks near the bottom nationally, while Ohio ranks near the top defensively. UMass has lost every game by multiple scores aside from one, and oddsmakers do not expect a major shift in its offense on Tuesday. Ohio should control the time of possession, field position, and the overall flow.
Over/Under Pick for Massachusetts Minutemen at Ohio Bobcats
- Under 48.5 (4 Units)
UMass averages only 10.5 points per game and has struggled to sustain drives, especially with ongoing offensive line injuries. Ohio puts up 27.1 points, but plays a ground-heavy style that drains the clock. UMass also ranks near the bottom nationally in time of possession at 26:50, giving them limited chances to impact the total. Ohio should move the ball well, but long drives reduce possessions, and UMass has not shown the ability to push totals upward. All trends point toward a low-scoring Ohio win that finished under.
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