UNLV vs. Boise State, Picks, Odds, Trends, Prediction for Friday, December 5, 2025
The Mountain West Championship is on tap on Friday, featuring this UNLV vs. Boise State prediction. UNLV is 10-2 overall and finished in a four-way tie with Boise State (8-4) at 6-2 for first place in the MWC. The tiebreaker was determined by a computer-averaged metrics score, where Boise State and UNLV had the best scores. Boise State is hosting because it defeated the Rebels 56-31 on Oct. 18. Boise State is a 4.5-point favorite, and the total is 58.5. The game will be played at Albertsons Stadium in Boise (blue turf) where the Potato Bowl is played. Keep reading for the prediction of this game and check out more free college football predictions and the conference championship games this weekend at Stat Salt.
Rebels win four straight
UNLV is coming off a 42-17 road win over Nevada, laying 7.5 on Nov. 29 for their fourth straight victory. Jai'Den Thomas rushed for 103 yards and produced four TDs on just 11 carries to help clinch a share of the MWC title. UNLV won its 10th game for the fourth time and has back-to-back 10 wins for the first time in program history. QB Anthony Coandrea completed 15 of 22 for 270 yards with a TD and an INT. The Rebels held Nevada to just 148 yards passing and forced two turnovers to go even in the turnover margin column.
Colandrea is having a very good season, completing 68.2% of his passes for 3,050 yards with 22 TDs and eight interceptions (22 sacks). Thomas leads the ground attack with 944 yards and 12 TDs and 35 catches for 211 yards. Jaden Bradley is the top receiver with 51 catches for 834 yards and four TDs. LB Marsel McDuffie leads the Rebels with 94 tackles and also had two sacks with two picks.
UNLV has just two losses, and both came in the MWC. They went 4-0 in non-conference play, which included a 30-23 win over UCLA as a 1.5-point home dog. The Rebels are pretty healthy coming in.
UNLV ranks 34th in turnover margin at +0.4, 90th in rushing defense (175.5ypg) and 20th in points per game (37.2).
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Key injuries for UNLV
- TE Var'Keys Gums (undisclosed) is questionable. Has 11 catches and 3 TDs this season
Broncos finish strong
This was an odd season for the Broncos, who lost to Fresno State 30-7 at home as a 17-point favorite and lost the next week to San Diego State 17-7 on Nov. 15. They bounced back with an easy 49-21 win over last place Colorado State and then finished the regular season with a 25-24 road win over Utah State. Dylan Riley rushed for 120 yards and scored the game-winner on a six-yard run with 2:26 left (two-point conversion failed). The Broncos struggled against the run, allowing 221 yards, but did a solid job against the pass, 184 yards (13 of 32). QB Max Cutforth completed 26 of 49 for 341 yards and two TDs.
Cutforth is a former walk-on who has led the team to both back-to-back wins and was filling in for the injured Maddux Madsen. The redshirt junior is expected to start on Friday after missing a month due to an ankle injury. Cutforth threw for 684 yards and two TDs in three games with Madsen out. Madsen is completing 59.6% of his passes for 1,994 yards with 15 TDs and seven picks. Riley leads the Broncos with 1,016 yards (6.2ypc) and 10 TDs. DB Ty Benefield leads the team in tackles with 90 and has two picks.
Boise is a solid rushing team, averaging 189.8 yards per game and 240.6 passing yards (76th). On defense, they are outstanding against the pass (167.1ypg) and but average against the run (162.3ypg). Boise State ranks 42nd in turnover margin at +0.3.
Key injuries for Boise State:
- QB M. Madsen (ankle) is listed as questionable but is expected to start. Has missed the last three games.
Betting Trends for UNLV vs. Boise State
UNLV:
- 10-5 ATS last 15 games.
Boise State:
- 5-1 ATS last 6 in this series.
- 4-1 Under last 5 games.
Spread Prediction and Pick for UNLV vs. Boise State
UNLV vs. Boise State Pick
- UNLV +4.5 (5 units)
UNLV gets revenge on Boise State for several reasons. Madsen's return is the right move because you shouldn't lose your starting job due to an injury. However, he hasn't played in a month and will be a bit rusty. Both teams ran the ball well in mid-October, but it was Madsen's four TD passes that were the difference in the 56-31 win for the Broncos. The Rebels tightened up their pass defense and will make some changes and get more pressure on Madsen. UNLV also ranks 8th in third-down conversions (29.4%) and that will be a key in them covering this game.
- Over 58.5 (5 units)
The first game went well over in mid-October, but I don't see either team scoring over 50 points this time. But both teams have some issues defensively, especially UNLV, which allowed over 420 yards per game and 246 passing yards. Boise State is better against the pass, but they struggle against the run. In that first game, they allowed 261 yards rushing to UNLV.
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