UNLV vs. Nevada Picks and Prediction, Saturday, November 29, 2025
It is the last game of the regular season for both of these teams with Nevada playing host to UNLV in a Mountain West Conference affair. After losing its first five conference games Nevada (3-8, 2-5 MWC) has won their last two games and UNLV (9-2, 5-2 MWC) has won three in a row and still has a shot at the conference title game. Check out this UNLV vs. Nevada prediction for all the info on this game. If you are struggling to pick winners, you've come to the right place. We have the strongest NCAAF Predictions
UNLV comes into this regular season finale as a 7.5-point favorite with the total sitting at 53.5.
Not Confusing and then a Little Confusing for UNLV
If UNLV wins and Boise State and New Mexico lose the Rebels will make the MWC title game, but if those things do not happen, there are other scenarios where they can make it, depending on computer metrics. In their last game, they were at home and trounced Hawaii, winning 38-10, where they outgained the Rainbow Warriors 470 yards to 231 yards. Anthony Colandrea passed for 253 yards with three TD and no INT, three players had at least 46 rushing yards, and Taeshaun Lyons had 75 receiving yards, most of which were a 72-yard TD. The Rebels covered as a 2.5-point favorite and have covered the spread in two of three games after failing to do so for three in a row.
UNLV has a balanced offense that ranks 16th in the nation, averaging 36.7 ppg, but only ranks 99th in giving up an average of 29.1 ppg. Colandrea (2,780 yards, 21 TD, 6 INT) has passed for at least 251 yards in each of the last four games, where he has nine TD and two picks. He is also the second leading rusher (529 yards 7 TD) and the leading one is Jai'Den Thomas (841 yards 8 TD), who had 61 yards in the last game and a season-high 131yards in the previous one. Three players have at least 388 receiving yards led by Jaden Braley (763 yards 4 TD). UNLV only has one road loss, and last season at home laid a 38-14 beat down on Nevada.
UNLV has some players as listed as questionable, but no key ones.
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Can Nevada Beat a Good Team?
While Nevada has won two in a row both teams they beat are well under .500 with a combined MWC record of 4-10 and their other win came facing an FCS team. They got their first road win of the season in their last game, beating Wyoming 13-7. The Wolf Pack outgained the Cowboys 271 yards to 221 yards, rushed for 213 yards, and forced the only turnover. Carter Jones only passed for 58 yards but had a TD and 34 rushing yards and Caleb Ramseur and former starting QB Chubba Purdy combined for 154 rushing yards. Nevada has been covered as a 6.5-point underdog and has covered the spread in the last two games.
Nevada is a run-first team that ranks 80th in the nation in scoring defense (26.2 ppg) and only 128th in scoring (17.6 ppg). Jones (914 yards 6 TD 8 INT) has three TD and no INT in the last two games after no TD and five picks in the previous two games. Ramseur and Purdy each have three TD and have combined for 1,042 yards. The Wolf Pack will look to get it done on the ground again, facing a UNLV team that only ranks 98th in the nation in defending the run.
The Wolf Pack have a few players listed as questionable, including a couple of defensive starters.
UNLV vs. Nevada Pick
Spread Pick for UNLV vs. Nevada
- UNLV -7.5 (+4 Units)
UNLV has won three in a row and still has a shot at the MWC title game and while Nevada only has three wins, two have come in the last two games. The Wolf Pack have played solid defense in their last two games, where they only gave up a total of 17 points. However, in the game before that they were smoked and gave up 51 points to a Utah State team that the Rebels beat two games back. Nevada’s wins in their last two games came against teams near the bottom of the MWC and neither ranks in the top 109 in the nation in scoring. UNLV ranks 16th in the nation in scoring and has a balanced offensive attack. In terms of the UNLV vs. Nevada prediction, the Rebels have too much offensive firepower, and they will win and cover on the road.
Over/Under Pick for UNLV vs. Nevada
- Over 53.5 (+4 Units)
The total for the last games for both of these teams went Under, but I am leaning towards the Over in this game. Nevada has only given up a total of 17 points in their last two games, but the teams it faced are not high-scoring ones at all. The last time they faced a solid offensive team they gave up 51 points. UNLV is just that in a solid offensive team that ranks 16th in the nation in scoring. The Rebels have had issues on D this season and will give up some points but not many. However, the Rebels will have a big scoring game, even on the road, which is why the Over is the pick for this MWC clash.
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