UT Martin vs Memphis Picks and Prediction for Saturday September 19 2026
The UT Martin Skyhawks travel to Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium in Memphis, Tennessee, to face the Memphis Tigers on Saturday, September 19, 2026. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00 PM ET with coverage on ESPN+. UT Martin is coming off a 52-7 loss at West Virginia, while Memphis returns home after suffering its first defeat of the season, a 38-20 loss at Boise State. The Tigers had won their first two games before making the difficult trip to Boise and now get a significant step down in competition against an FCS opponent. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free college football picks for more NCAAF predictions throughout the season.
UT Martin Faces Another Brutal FBS Road Assignment
UT Martin's schedule has become extremely demanding. The Skyhawks traveled to West Virginia Saturday and were beaten 52-7, and rather than returning to FCS competition they now head directly to Memphis for another road game against an FBS opponent. That is a difficult two-week stretch for any FCS roster.
The final score at West Virginia was ugly, but UT Martin did create some offensive opportunities. The Skyhawks generated 246 first-half yards and had multiple explosive plays, but turnovers, penalties and missed opportunities prevented them from turning that production into points. UT Martin has also yet to throw a touchdown pass through its first three games, highlighting the difficulty the offense has experienced finishing possessions.
The physical toll is another concern. West Virginia gradually overwhelmed UT Martin during the second half, and Memphis now gets the Skyhawks immediately afterward. UT Martin's best chance of covering a massive spread is to avoid turnovers, drain clock and produce enough first downs to keep Memphis' offense on the sideline. Another collection of empty scoring opportunities would make this difficult to keep competitive.
Memphis Returns Home Looking for a Rebound
Memphis suffered its first loss Saturday, falling 38-20 at Boise State after winning its opening two games. The Tigers entered the matchup unbeaten but couldn't keep pace once Boise State established control. Returning home against UT Martin gives Memphis an excellent opportunity to immediately reset.
The Tigers had already demonstrated plenty of offensive capability before the Boise State loss. Memphis scored 42 against Arkansas State and has shown that it can create separation against opponents when it owns a significant talent advantage. That should be the case Saturday against an FCS team coming directly from a 45-point loss at West Virginia.
The biggest concern for bettors is motivation once the game is decided. Memphis doesn't need to keep its primary rotation on the field deep into the fourth quarter if it builds a large lead. That makes laying an enormous number dangerous. Still, the Tigers should be capable of reaching the 40s before the game reaches that stage, particularly if UT Martin continues struggling to finish drives.
UT Martin vs Memphis Picks and Prediction
Pick: Memphis -28.5 or Better
Take Memphis if the spread is -28.5 or better. UT Martin just lost 52-7 at West Virginia and now plays another FBS road opponent without a recovery week. Memphis is coming off its first loss and should have plenty of motivation to produce a cleaner performance in front of its home crowd. Four touchdowns is my preferred range; once the number moves well into the 30s, late-game substitutions make the favorite much less attractive.
Pick: Over 52.5
Take the Over if the total is set at 52.5 or lower. Memphis should do most of the work after West Virginia scored 52 against UT Martin, but the Skyhawks did generate enough yardage Saturday to suggest they can contribute a touchdown or two. Memphis also allowed 38 at Boise State and should play more aggressively offensively while trying to regain momentum. A projected Memphis 45, UT Martin 13 covers the target spread and moves comfortably Over.
Final Picks: Memphis -28.5 or Better and Over 52.5