Utah State Aggies vs. Vanderbilt Commodores Prediction and Picks – Saturday, September 27
Use Code SSWC The Vanderbilt Commodores will host the Utah State Aggies in Week 5, and we'll preview the lines and odds here in our Utah State vs. Vanderbilt prediction. Both teams enter this game with strong early-season performances under their belt, but the Commodores are overwhelming favorites after going 4-0 with increasingly dominant wins against FBS competition. Kickoff is set for 12:45 PM ET at FirstBank Stadium on Saturday, September 27.
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Can Utah State extend streak against the spread?
The Utah State Aggies are 3-1 this season, with wins against UT El Paso (28-16), Air Force (49-30), and FCS McNeese State (48-7) on their record. Their lone loss came on the road against the Texas A&M Aggies, in a game that Utah State lost 22-44, but still scored enough in to cover the spread as 33.5-point underdogs. That game looms as an interesting benchmark ahead of Week 5, when they're once again on the road against an SEC team that's favored to beat them by a wide margin.
Utah State wasn't as competitive as the scoreboard would indicate against A&M – they went into halftime down 6-30, after which they logged two 8-point touchdown drives against a team that was dipping into their depth chart to close things out. Senior quarterback Bryson Barnes threw two touchdowns in the game, but completed only 15 of his 30 passes for 169 yards. The ground game wasn't much better; Utah State finished with 78 yards on 35 carries, including 16 from Barnes that netted -4 yards. Texas A&M finished with nine tackles for loss and six sacks on defense, including three each from defensive end Cashius Howell alone.
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Between them, the two FBS teams Utah State has beaten this season – UTEP and Air Force – are a combined 0-3 against their other FBS opponents. The Aggies can only beat the teams on their schedule, but they don't have a strong resume heading into their tilt with Vanderbilt.
How long can Vanderbilt keep rising?
The No. 18 Vanderbilt Commodores aren't just 4-0 to start the 2025 season–they're 4-0 against the spread with a colossal margin of victory. Week 1 went about as expected, with the Commodores beating FCS Charleston Southern 45-3 – they covered the 37.5-point spread by four points and finished within two points of the 49.5 pregame total line. They made a mockery of the oddsmakers in their next two games, entering road games against Virginia Tech and South Carolina as underdogs and emerging victorious in each by a combined score of 75-27. Week 4 saw them go further, winning 70-21 against Georgia State to blow past the 28-point spread and 53.0 total line. The line can't go up forever, but the Commodores have asserted themselves to open this season in a way that makes it extremely hard to bet against them.
Overall, the Commodores rank 45th in passing yards (258.5), 21st in rushing yards (223.8), 9th in points (47.5), and 19th in points allowed (12.8) per game among FBS teams. Those numbers would be impressive for any team; they're much more impressive when factoring in the Commodores playing three of their first four games against FBS opponents – two of which were on the road, one of which was ranked in the AP Top 25. Senior quarterback Diego Pavia has been sensational in his second year in Nashville after transferring from New Mexico State – he's completed 73.9 percent of his passes for an average of 9.7 yards per attempt, and he leads the team with 215 yards on the ground on 39 carries.
The Commodores' most recent game against the Georgia State Panthers saw them score on each of their first six drives, en route to their highest point total since beating Tennessee 76-0 in 1918. It'll be a hard act to follow, but few teams in college football have as much momentum right now.
Utah State vs. Vanderbilt Pick
Spread Pick for Utah State vs. Vanderbilt
- Vanderbilt -22.5 (-110) (4 Units)
The Commodores' wave of momentum might – emphasis on 'might' – break at some point in their SEC schedule, but they don't play Alabama for another week. As impressive as Utah State has been this season, they haven't defied and insulted the oddsmakers' attempts to set expectations for them at every turn like Vanderbilt. I'll believe there are brakes on the Commodores' train when I see them; in the meantime, even a 22.5-point spread isn't enough that I'd bet on their opponent to cover.
Over/Under Pick for Utah State vs. Vanderbilt
- Over 59.0 (-110) (4 Units)
When the Team Total Under has hit in the Aggies' and Commodores' games this season, it hasn't been for their own lack of point production. It hit when the Commodores held Charleston Southern to three points and again when they held South Carolina to seven. On the Aggies' side, it hit when they won 28-16 over UTEP and again when they beat McNeese State 48-7. It'd be surprising if either team looked nearly as toothless on offense as those past opponents, especially after watching Utah State bumble into 22 points in their loss to Texas A&M.
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