Utah State vs. Hawaii Prediction and Picks - Saturday, October 11, 2025
Use Code SSWC Hawaii and Utah State are both back in action after bye weeks this Saturday as they meet in a Mountain West conference game. You can get the inside line on this game and see our great tips for side and total bets with our Utah State Aggies vs. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors prediction and picks. Kick-off is scheduled for 6pm HST (12am Sunday ET) at the Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex in Honolulu, home of the Rainbow Warriors.
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Aggies look to boost MWC challenge
Utah State (3-2, 1-0 in MWC) has surfed a tough early schedule and will now hope to push on in conference play. The Aggies' two losses this season barely came as a surprise as they went down to nationally ranked Texas A&M and Vanderbilt on the road. The Vany loss took place on Sept. 27 in their last game before they had a bye last week. Those games weren't close, but Utah State wasn't embarrassed either, while in its sole MWC matchup so far, the Aggies cruised past Air Force with a 49-30 win in Logan.
Quarterback Bryson Barnes has made a strong start to the season, the Aggies' first under new head coach Bronco Mendenhall. Barnes has completed 65.9% of attempts for a total of 1143 yards after nine games. He leads the MWC in passing TDs (11) and yards/attempt (8.9) and also leads the conference with six rushing TDs. His mark of 17 total touchdowns ties him for third among FBS QBs so far this season. He failed to finish the Aggies' last game but has been cleared to play against Hawaii. Barnes' most productive outlet has been Braden Pegan, who has caught for 369 yards (15.4 per reception) and a conference-high five TDs.
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Flawless Matsuzawa driving Hawaii
Placekickers do not always get the plaudits in college football, but at Hawaii (4-2, 1-1 in MWC) Kansei Matsuzawa is turning a lot of heads. The Japanese national is making an early case for All-American honors, having started the season with a perfect 16-16 field goal success rate, leading all college kickers after Week 6. Matsuzawa is yet to miss a single kick yet as he has also converted all 12 of his extra-point attempts. He slotted the ball between the uprights eight times in Hawaii's last outing, a 44-35 win over Air Force, including another three field goals.
That win was most welcome for the Rainbow Warriors after dropping their opening MWC game to Fresno State. The star of the show was Micah Alejado, who put up a career-best 457 passing yards and three TDs to slice open the Air Force defense. The redshirt freshman made a welcome recovery after his shaky outing against Fresno State, where he threw three interceptions. He has started four of Hawaii's six games and has a passing completion rate of 65.9%; if he can cut out the mistakes, the QB will be a valuable weapon for the Hawaii offense.
On the injury front, WR Pofele Ashlock, who has 34 catches for 303 yards and three TDs, is listed as questionable with an undisclosed injury.
Utah State vs. Hawaii pick
Spread Pick for Utah State vs. Hawaii
- Utah State -1.5 (5 units)
The sportsbooks see Saturday's game as almost a dead heat, but I think Utah State is undervalued here and should be able to cover on the road. A lot hangs on which version of Alejado Hawaii will get, the QB that threw so well against a poor Air Force defense or the more shaky version, which gave up four picks in two games. I am betting on the former given the Aggies' strong pass pressure: they have picked up 11 sacks and five interceptions this year in their first five games, with opponents opting to pass on only 44% of plays against them. Utah State is a perfect 5-0 ATS this year. The last game between these teams in November 2024 ended 55-10 in Utah State's favor. The margin of victory won't be as big this time around, but if the Aggies can keep the pressure on the Hawaii O-line, they can come through and cover.
Take the Aggies.
Over/Under Pick for Utah State vs. Hawaii
- Over 57.5 (5 units)
These are two teams with a lot of scoring power and a straight offensive shootout looks like the most likely scenario, making the over the smart bet. Utah State is 3-1 on the over this year against FBS opposition and after a slow start offensively, averages 44 points per game in its last three outings. Aggies' games in 2025 have yielded an average total of 66.8 points. Hawaii combined with Air Force to put up a total of 79 points in its last game and is 2-1 on the over in its last three games against FBS teams. The Rainbow Warriors rank 22nd in Division I with 280.6 passing yards per game.
Take the over.
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