Utah State vs. New Mexico Picks and Prediction, Saturday, October 25, 2025
Use Code SSWC Mountain West Action heats up in the Land of Enchantment on Saturday afternoon with New Mexico (4-3, 1-2 MWC) hosting Utah State (4-3, 2-1 MWC). New Mexico is coming off their first conference win and Utah State had lost two in a row before a win in their last game. Check out the matchups in this game, the full score info, and other free NCAAF picks in this Utah State vs. New Mexico prediction.
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New Mexico comes into this conference affair as the favorite, posted at -3 with a total of 61.5.
Utah State Moves Over .500 in MWC Play
In their last game, Utah State was at home in a 30-25 win over San Jose State, where they moved to 2-1 in conference play. While San Jose State is only 2-5 the Spartans did beat New Mexico and the Aggies forced the only turnover and won despite being outgained 534 yards to 461 yards. Bryson Barnes passed for 326 yards with a TD and also led the team with 54 rushing yards and a TD and Anthony Garcia and Braden Pagen combined for 214 rushing yards. Utah State covered as a 3-point favorite and they are 6-1 ATS on the season.
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On the season, Utah State has a pretty balanced offense that ranks tied for 37th, averaging 34 ppg, but only ranks tied for 119th in the nation, giving up an average of 31.6 ppg. The Aggies will face a New Mexico defense that ranks 103rd against the pass and 27th against the run.
Barnes (1,644 yards 13 TD) has one TD in each of the last two games after totaling eight in the previous three games. Leading RB Miles Davis (466 yards 3 TD) rushed for 50 yards in the last game after going for over 100 in the previous one and Barnes has rushed for 363 yards with 7 TD. Pagen and Brady Boyd have combined for 950 receiving yards and seven TDs.
New Mexico Gets Narrow Win Over Doormat
New Mexico was at home in their last game in a narrow 24-22 win over a Nevada team that only has one win, which came facing an FCS team. While the Lobos had two turnovers and did not commit one, they outgained the Wolf Pack 348 yards to 257 yards and rushed for 210 yards. Jack Layne passed for 138 yards with no TD and no INT, led the team in rushing with 71 yards, and D.J. McKinney rushed for 39 yards with two scores. New Mexico failed to cover as a 13.5-point favorite and has failed to cover the spread in their last three games.
The Lobos have a balanced offense and rank 73rd in the nation in scoring (28.3 ppg) and are tied for 84th in points against per game (26.3 ppg). Layne (1,415 yards 8 TD 8 INT) has one TD and five INT in the last three games. Scottre Humphrey (339 yards 5 TD) rushed for 58 yards in the last game after only rushing for 18 yards in the previous two games. Dorian Thomas and Keagan Johnson have combined for 794 receiving yards and six TD. UNM will be facing a Utah State defense that ranks 130th out of 136 FBS teams against the pass and 116th against the run.
CB Abraham Williams is listed as questionable with an undisclosed injury.
Utah State vs. New Mexico Pick
Spread Pick for Utah State vs. New Mexico
- Utah State +3 (4 Units)
Both of these teams are coming off a win and have lost their previous two games. Neither has beaten a good team so far and while New Mexico has failed to cover in their last three games, Utah State is 6-1 ATS on the season. The Aggies have been pretty bad on the defensive side of the football this season, but they have a solid offense. On the other side of the coin, the Lobos have been balanced but have issues on both sides of the ball. In terms of the Utah State vs. New Mexico prediction, the Lobos narrowly beat a bad team at home in their last game and this one will be close as well, where Utah State will cover the spread.
Over/Under Pick for Utah State vs. New Mexico
- Over 61.5 (4 units)
When these teams met last season and the total went Over and that is the pick I am leaning towards in this game. While not a high scoring team, New Mexico has a balanced offense. They will put up a high total in this game, facing a Utah State defense that ranks tied for 119th in the nation, giving up an average of 31.6 ppg. While the Lobos have a better defense, in terms of the stats, it is still not a good one, and the Aggies will score big behind their solid offense. This game will be like the one last season in a high-scoring barnburner, so the Over is the way to go.
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