Utah State vs. Texas A&M Picks and Prediction, Saturday, September 6, 2025
We have a battle of the Aggies this weekend, as the #19 Texas A&M Aggies (1-0) gear up to host the Utah State Aggies (1-0) in a non-conference showdown. We’ve got you covered with our Utah State vs. Texas A&M prediction. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:45 ET from Kyle Field in College Station, TX.
Aggies Edge the Miners at Home
The Utah State Aggies football program had a complete overhaul heading into 2025, as they have a new head coach in Bronco Mendenhall, as well as two new coordinators in Kevin McGiven (offensive) and Nick Howell (defensive). Utah State looked decent in its season opener, taking care of UTEP at home in a group-of-five non-conference clash. The Aggies won 28-16, out-gaining the Miners 360-284 and winning the turnover battle 1-0.
QB Bryson Barnes is leading the way under center this season, and he’s in his second year with the program after spending a trio of seasons with Utah. He threw for 233 yards and a touchdown against UTEP in week one. Miles Davis, a senior running back, paved the way with 88 yards and a touchdown. Out wide, Barnes will be distributing the ball to TE Broc Lane (52 yards, 1 TD) and WR Brady Boyd (31 yards).
- After week one, Utah State is priced at +4500 to win the conference title.
- Touching on last year’s metrics, the Aggies were 32nd in points per game (31.5) and ninth in yards per week (452.2).
- They were 129th in defensive scoring (39.9 PAPG) and 130th in yards conceded per game (480.5).
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#19 Aggies Handle the Roadrunners
Meanwhile, the expectations are high for the Texas A&M Aggies heading into 2025, as Coach Mike Elko returns for his second year at the helm. He’s looking to build on an 8-5 (5-3 SEC) mark from a year ago. A&M had no issues taking care of visiting UTSA in week one, cruising to a 42-24 home victory. They didn’t manage to cover as 23.5-point favorites. Statistically, the Aggies out-gained their opponent 401-373. Texas A&M was gashed for 203 yards on the ground last weekend, which will be something to keep an eye on as we move further into the season.
It was the “Marcel Reed Show” last Saturday, as the sophomore quarterback led the way in both passing (289 yards, 4 TD) and rushing (39 yards) for the Aggies. His top targets were Mario Craver (122 yards, 2 TD) and KC Concepcion (72 yards, 1 TD). Le’Veon Moss is set to spearhead the rushing attack this season, but he went for only 19 yards on three carries in week one.
- A&M has an adjusted win total of 8.5 (+135/-160) and they’re priced at +1300 to win the conference title.
- The Aggies finished last season ranked 50th in scoring (28.6 PPG), while coming in at 52nd in yards per game (395.8).
- Defensively, they were 39th in points given up per game (23.3) and 63rd in yards conceded per contest (374.7).
Utah State vs. Texas A&M Pick
Spread Pick for Utah State vs. Texas A&M
- Utah State +31.5 (-108) (5 units)
There’s no doubt that Texas A&M should be a large favorite at home on Saturday, but we have to draw the line somewhere. I think we’ve gone a bit too far getting out past four-touchdown favorites, so I’m willing to back the underdogs in this spot.
A&M’s defense did not look good in week one against UTSA. They should've stonewalled this group-of-five program, but instead they were gashed for 203 rushing yards in the 42-24 contest. Now they’ll have to deal with a veteran Utah State offense that’s led by a fifth-year quarterback and three starting receivers who are all upperclassmen. The visiting Aggies didn’t turn the ball over in week one, and if they can avoid giving their opponent short fields on Saturday, then they should do enough to keep this game within the 31.5 points.
- Over 54.5 (-110) (5 units)
On that note, I’m also going to play the over in College Station on Saturday. As I mentioned above, I’m just not sold on A&M’s defense. They conceded 24 points last weekend, and even if they only allow around 17-21 points in this game, we should be well on our way to the over cashing.
Texas A&M’s strength is going to be its offense. They amassed 401 total yards against UTSA last weekend, and Marcel Reed put on a show, throwing for four touchdowns. They’ll take on a Utah State side that allowed an insane 39.9 points per game last season. I think the hosting Aggies score into the 40s in this game and we trickle over the total.
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