Utah vs Iowa State Picks and Prediction for Saturday September 26 2026

The No. 17 Utah Utes visit the Iowa State Cyclones at MidAmerican Energy Field at Jack Trice Stadium in Ames, Iowa, on Saturday, September 26, 2026. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 PM ET with coverage on FOX. Utah enters after shutting out Utah State 33-0, while Iowa State improved to 2-1 with a dominant 55-7 victory over Bowling Green. This is the Big 12 opener for Iowa State and the second conference meeting between the programs after the Cyclones won 31-28 in Salt Lake City in 2024. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free college football picks for more NCAAF predictions throughout the season.

Utah Brings an Elite Defensive Performance to Ames

Utah enters conference play directly off a 33-0 shutout of Utah State. The Utes did exactly what a nationally ranked team should do against an overmatched opponent, controlling the game defensively and preventing Utah State from generating any scoring momentum.

That defensive performance is particularly relevant against Iowa State because the Cyclones just scored 55. Utah cannot expect Iowa State’s offense and special teams to be as accommodating as Utah State, but the Utes have demonstrated that they can control games without needing an extreme scoring output themselves.

The road setting is the primary challenge. Jack Trice Stadium should be energized for Iowa State’s Big 12 opener and a ranked opponent. Utah needs to withstand the first quarter and prevent Iowa State from using explosive plays or special teams to create an early two-score advantage.

Iowa State Just Produced Its Best Performance

Iowa State enters 2-1 after overwhelming Bowling Green 55-7. The Cyclones generated 507 total yards, including 365 on the ground, while holding Bowling Green to only 186 total yards. Iowa State also produced touchdowns on both a kickoff return and punt return, demonstrating an advantage that extended beyond offense and defense.

The Cyclones’ only defeat came 16-13 at then-No. 21 Iowa. That three-point road loss looks much different than a poor performance against an inferior opponent. Iowa State has won its two home games by scores of 38-10 and 55-7 and now remains in Ames for its conference opener.

The question is whether that rushing success translates against Utah. Bowling Green entered with serious defensive problems, while the Utes represent a dramatic increase in physicality. Iowa State probably will not produce another 365 rushing yards, making quarterback efficiency and field position considerably more important.

Utah vs Iowa State Picks and Prediction

Pick: Iowa State +3.5 or Better

This is one of my favorite target-number sides from this batch. Utah deserves its No. 17 ranking, but Iowa State has been excellent at home and lost its only game by three points at ranked Iowa. The Cyclones also beat Utah 31-28 in Salt Lake City in their previous Big 12 meeting. Getting more than a field goal at Jack Trice gives Iowa State enough value to take the points.

Pick: Under 48.5 or Higher

Both teams have defensive paths to controlling this game. Utah just posted a shutout, while Iowa State held Bowling Green to seven points and 186 total yards. The Cyclones’ 55-point performance should not automatically push us toward an over because special teams and a weak Bowling Green defense contributed substantially. A physical Big 12 game in the 24-21 range is more appealing.

Final Picks: Iowa State +3.5 or Better and Under 48.5 or Higher