UTSA vs Texas State Picks and Prediction for Saturday September 12 2026

The UTSA Roadrunners travel to UFCU Stadium in San Marcos, Texas, to face the Texas State Bobcats in the Battle for I-35 on Saturday, September 12. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 PM ET on The CW. UTSA enters 1-0 after defeating UTRGV 45-16, while Texas State is 0-1 following a 59-7 loss at No. 5 Texas. The current betting market has UTSA favored by 1.5 points with the total at 64.5. Before placing your wagers, check out our free college football picks for more predictions throughout the season.

UTSA Offense Produces 525 Yards

UTSA opened its season with a convincing 45-16 victory over UTRGV, producing 525 total yards and five offensive plays of at least 30 yards. The Roadrunners built a 31-6 halftime advantage and finished with excellent balance between their passing and rushing attacks.

Owen McCown completed 22 of 27 passes for 275 yards and three touchdowns. Will Henderson III rushed for 99 yards, including a 75-yard touchdown, while A’Marion Peterson added 96 yards and a 53-yard score. DJ Allen Jr. led the receiving attack with 116 yards, highlighted by a 62-yard touchdown.

There are defensive concerns despite the comfortable victory. UTSA surrendered 422 yards to an FCS opponent and committed 11 penalties. The Roadrunners kept UTRGV out of the end zone until the closing seconds, but Texas State possesses considerably more offensive talent and should be capable of turning some of those yards into points.

Texas State Gets Major Drop in Competition

Texas State’s 59-7 loss looks ugly, but the Bobcats faced the No. 5 team in the country on the road. Texas State actually generated 349 total yards, including 161 rushing yards, while converting eight of 14 third downs. The biggest problems were turnovers and preventing explosive passing plays.

Brad Jackson completed 15 of 23 passes for 150 yards while adding 27 rushing yards. Texas State received 58 receiving yards from Tucker Cusano, while the ground attack spread 161 yards among several players. The Bobcats’ offense moved the football better than the seven-point final suggests.

Texas State now returns home and takes a dramatic step down in competition. The Bobcats cannot afford another turnover-heavy performance after losing two fumbles and throwing an interception against Texas, but their ability to generate 349 yards against an elite opponent makes this an intriguing matchup against a UTSA defense that allowed 422 yards to UTRGV.

UTSA vs Texas St. Picks and Prediction

Pick: Texas State +1.5

UTSA was much more impressive on the scoreboard in Week 1, but Texas State +1.5 is my preferred side. The difference in opening opponents was enormous. Texas State generated 349 yards against No. 5 Texas and now returns home, while UTSA allowed 422 yards against an FCS opponent despite winning comfortably. McCown and the Roadrunners’ explosive offense make this close, but Jackson and the Bobcats should find considerably more room against UTSA than they did in Austin. Take Texas State +1.5.

Pick: Under 64.5

The Under 64.5 is the preferred total. Both offenses have enough weapons to score, but this number requires sustained production from both sides. Texas State scored only seven points in its opener, while UTSA’s 45-point performance included a defensive touchdown and several explosive plays that aren’t guaranteed to repeat. A competitive game around 31-28 or 30-27 fits the matchup while remaining below this relatively high total. Take Under 64.5.

Final Picks: Texas State +1.5 and Under 64.5