Vanderbilt Commodores at Texas Longhorns, Preview, Odds, Picks and Prediction for Saturday, November 1, 2025
The No. 10 Vanderbilt Commodores travel to Austin to face the No. 22 Texas Longhorns at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium on Saturday at 12:00 PM ET, on ABC. Vanderbilt is 7-1 after a 17-10 win over Missouri, while Texas is 6-2 following a 45-38 overtime victory at Mississippi State. Your Saturday scout: NCAAF predictions for Vanderbilt Commodores at Texas Longhorns you can trust.
Vanderbilt Looks to Extend Historic Start
Vanderbilt continues its best season in over 80 years after edging Missouri 17-10 last week. Quarterback Diego Pavia led the game-winning drive, diving in for a 1-yard touchdown with under two minutes remaining. The Commodores managed just 265 total yards, which was the lowest output this season, but capitalized on key takeaways, including a crucial fumble recovery by safety CJ Heard. Despite struggles on offense, Vanderbilt found a way to win, which was its third victory over a ranked opponent this year.
On the season, Pavia has thrown for 1,698 yards with 15 touchdowns and 5 interceptions while also leading the team in rushing with 458 yards and 5 scores. Tight end Eli Stowers leads Vanderbilt in receiving with 397 yards and 2 touchdowns on 31 catches. The Commodores average 41.4 points per game but were held to 17 last week, showing they can win low-scoring contests. On defense, edge rusher Miles Capers has recorded 4.5 sacks, while Heard leads the unit with 43 tackles. The Commodores’ ability to force turnovers has been a difference-maker through eight games.
Vandy's defense allowed 10 points to a Missouri team averaging nearly 40 per game entering the matchup. The Commodores limited the Tigers to 138 passing yards and just one offensive touchdown. The run defense became tough to beat late in the game. Vanderbilt now faces another strong passing offense, but the pass rush and a disciplined secondary have held opponents to minimal big plays in recent weeks.
Injuries:
- N. Jefferson (DL) Out – Undisclosed
- V. Hinton (CB) Out – Undisclosed
- C. Gillespie (RB) Out – Undisclosed
- D. Dickey (QB) Out – Undisclosed
- Y. Ouattara (DL) Out – Undisclosed
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Texas Aims to Protect Home Field
Texas pulled off a wild 45-38 overtime win at Mississippi State, rallying from a 31-14 deficit entering the fourth quarter. Arch Manning threw for 346 yards and three touchdowns before leaving in overtime with an apparent injury. Backup Matthew Caldwell sealed the win with a touchdown pass to Emmett Mosley. The Longhorns’ special teams made a huge impact, with Ryan Niblett’s 79-yard punt return tying the game in the final two minutes of regulation. Texas finished with 428 total yards, including 346 through the air, overcoming seven sacks and an inconsistent start.
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Rob Vincilleti | +750.00 |
| 2 |  Brick Haus Sports | +391.00 |
| 3 |  David Delano | +182.00 |
| 4 |  The Insiders Room | +100.00 |
| 5 |  Terry Edelmann | +100.00 |
Manning has totaled 1,795 passing yards with 15 touchdowns and six interceptions. Wide receiver Ryan Wingo has emerged as his top target, with 504 yards and 4 touchdowns on 29 catches. Running back Quintrevion Wisner leads the team with 263 rushing yards and 2 scores, though the Longhorns have relied heavily on the passing attack. Defensively, linebacker Colin Simmons leads Texas with 7 sacks, while Anthony Hill Jr. has a team-best 60 tackles, both setting the tone for a defense that has stepped up in pressure moments.
Despite giving up 445 yards to Mississippi State, Texas’ pass rush came alive when it mattered most, collecting seven sacks and forcing four late stops. The Longhorns’ offense ranks near the top of the conference in passing efficiency but has struggled to protect the quarterback, allowing multiple sacks in three straight games. At home, Texas averages 38 points and plays much better, though Manning’s health status could influence the offensive approach against Vanderbilt’s physical front.
Injuries:
- L. Jackson (DL) Questionable – Undisclosed
- A. Butler (WR) Probable – Undisclosed
- M. Taaffe (CB) Questionable – Undisclosed
- C. Hutson (OG) Questionable – Undisclosed
- A. Manning (QB) Questionable – Undisclosed
- A. Cojoe (OG) Out – Knee
Vanderbilt Commodores at Texas Longhorns Pick
Spread Pick for Vanderbilt vs. Texas
- Vanderbilt +2.5 (4 Units)
Vanderbilt’s defense continues to prove it can dictate games against high-powered opponents. The Commodores have allowed just 34 total points in the last two SEC contests, while Pavia’s dual-threat ability keeps defenses guessing. Texas’ issues with the offensive line and Manning’s questionable status give Vanderbilt a narrow advantage to cover on the road in what should be a tight, physical matchup. Vandy may even win this outright.
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rob Vincilleti | +1,502.00 |
| 2 |  Pro Sports Picks | +1,421.00 |
| 3 | Brick Haus Sports | +634.00 |
| 4 | David Delano | +492.00 |
| 5 |  Michael Briggs | +355.00 |
Over/Under Pick for Vandy vs. Texas
- Under 44.5 (4 Units)
Both teams rely on balanced attacks but are coming off physical, grind-it-out games. Vanderbilt’s defense has held opponents to 10 points or fewer in two of its last three, while Texas has allowed under 24 points in three of its previous four at home. With two excellent red-zone defenses and possible starting QB issues for Texas, the total will finish under the posted number.
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