Vanderbilt Commodores vs Tennessee Volunteers Prediction and Picks - November 29, 2025
SEC College football action on Saturday afternoon, and we have a Vanderbilt vs Tennessee prediction locked and loaded for you. Vanderbilt enters this game off a 45-17 home win over Kentucky to move to 9-2 on the year. The Vols enter this contest at 8-3 on the year and off a 31-11 road win over Florida. Tennessee has won the last five games in this series. Can Vanderbilt break the string? Read on to see our Vanderbilt vs Tennessee prediction.
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Commodores Look To Pull The Upset
Vanderbilt enters this rivalry week at 9-2 overall and 5-2 in SEC play, fresh off a 45-17 rout of Kentucky on November 22 in Nashville. Quarterback Diego Pavia delivered a career performance, throwing for 484 yards and five touchdowns, while also rushing for another score. Wideout Tre Richardson was unstoppable, catching three touchdowns and finishing with 159 yards. The Commodores piled up 604 total yards, and their defense forced three interceptions, keeping Kentucky from ever threatening. It was a statement win that secured Vanderbilt’s first nine-win regular season since 1915.
The Commodores’ offense has been dynamic all year, averaging nearly 39 points per game and thriving on Pavia’s dual-threat ability. He’s thrown for 2,924 yards and 26 touchdowns while adding 661 rushing yards and eight scores, making him one of the most dangerous quarterbacks in the SEC. Richardson has emerged as his top target with 705 receiving yards and four touchdowns, while the ground game has been balanced with contributions from multiple backs. Vanderbilt’s ability to stretch the field vertically while also grinding out drives has made them difficult to defend, and their offensive line has given Pavia the time to exploit mismatches.
Defensively, Vanderbilt has allowed just under 22 points per game, with linebacker Bryce Longwell leading the unit in tackles. Cornerback Martel Hight has been a playmaker in the secondary, grabbing two interceptions against Kentucky to highlight his ball-hawking ability. The Commodores have shown they can generate turnovers and flip momentum quickly, which will be critical against Tennessee’s balanced offense. Vanderbilt’s defense will need to stay disciplined against the Volunteers’ run game while keeping Joey Aguilar from finding rhythm through the air.
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Vols Rout The Gators On The Road
Tennessee comes in at 8-3 overall and 4-3 in SEC play, riding momentum from a 31-11 win at Florida on November 22 in Gainesville. Quarterback Joey Aguilar was efficient, completing 17 of 22 passes for 204 yards and a touchdown, while running back DeSean Bishop carried the load with 116 rushing yards and two scores. Tight end Ethan Davis added a touchdown reception, and the Volunteers’ defense held Florida to just 261 total yards. It was Tennessee’s first win in the Swamp since 2003, a confidence boost heading into the rivalry showdown with Vanderbilt.
Offensively, Tennessee has averaged over 42 points per game, with Aguilar throwing for 3,145 yards and 23 touchdowns this season. Bishop has been the workhorse in the backfield, rushing for 886 yards and 12 touchdowns, while wideout Chas Brazzell II has been the primary deep threat with 926 receiving yards and eight scores. The Volunteers thrive on balance, mixing Bishop’s power running with Aguilar’s ability to stretch defenses vertically. Their offensive line has been steady, giving Aguilar time to find his playmakers and allowing Bishop to consistently move the chains.
Defensively, Tennessee has allowed just over 27 points per game, with linebacker Elijah Spillman leading the team in tackles and defensive lineman Daevin Bailey providing pressure with 5.5 sacks. The Volunteers have been opportunistic, forcing turnovers and limiting opponents’ rushing attacks. Against Vanderbilt, Tennessee’s defense will be tested by Pavia’s dual-threat ability and Richardson’s big-play potential. The Volunteers will need to generate pressure up front and keep Pavia contained in the pocket to avoid explosive plays. With Neyland Stadium rocking, Tennessee’s defense will look to set the tone early in this high-stakes rivalry clash.
Vanderbilt vs Tennessee Pick
Vanderbilt vs Tennessee Spread Pick
- Tennessee -2.5 (5 Units)
Laying the -2.5 with Tennessee makes sense given how the Volunteers have been trending. Their win at Florida showed balance on offense, with Joey Aguilar completing 77% of his passes and DeSean Bishop pounding out 116 rushing yards. That combination of efficiency through the air and physicality on the ground gives Tennessee multiple ways to attack Vanderbilt’s defense. The Vols’ offensive line has held up well, and Aguilar has proven he can protect the football, which is critical in a rivalry game where mistakes often swing momentum.
Defensively, Tennessee has been steady all season, allowing just over 22 points per game, and they showed against Florida that they can control the line of scrimmage. Vanderbilt’s Diego Pavia has been dynamic, but the Vols’ front seven is built to contain mobile quarterbacks and force them into tough throws. With Neyland Stadium behind them and a chance to close out the regular season strong, Tennessee’s ability to dictate tempo and lean on Bishop’s ground game makes covering the short number a realistic expectation.
Vanderbilt vs Tennessee Over/Under Pick
- Under 66 (4 Units)
The Under 66 feels even stronger when you look at how these teams have been trending late in the season. Tennessee’s defense has tightened up, holding Florida to just 261 total yards last week, while Vanderbilt’s unit forced three interceptions against Kentucky and has been giving up just under 22 points per game. Both sides have shown they can clamp down when it matters, and in rivalry games, that usually means fewer explosive plays and more grind-it-out possessions. On the offensive side, Tennessee leans on DeSean Bishop’s ground game to control tempo, while Vanderbilt’s Diego Pavia often extends drives with his legs rather than pushing for quick strikes. That style naturally eats clock and limits the number of possessions. Add in the emotional weight of this rivalry, where mistakes are minimized and coaches tend to play it safe, and it’s hard to see this turning into a shootout. The ingredients point toward a physical, lower-scoring battle that makes the Under 66 a very live option.
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