Virginia Tech Hokies vs. NC State Wolfpack Picks and Prediction - September 27, 2025
Longtime rivals in the ACC meet on Saturday and if you are checking out the action, be sure to check out our Virginia Tech vs. North Carolina State predictions before making your plays. The Hokies (1-3 SU, 0-4 ATS) won their first game of the season last week, beating Wofford, 38-6, as -35.5 favorites at home. The Wolfpack (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) caught their first loss of the season against rival Duke, 45-33, as +3 underdogs on the road last weekend. This matchup kicks off at 7:00 EST from Cater-Finley Stadium and remember, when it comes to college football selections, our College Football predictions can’t be beat.
Virginia Tech works way to win column
The Hokies have had it rough to start the season, suffering three bad losses before getting their chance to get in the win column versus FCS side, Wofford. A 45-26 loss to ODU at home was the last straw for the Virginia Tech athletic department, which fired head coach Brent Pry. OC Phillip Montgomery has taken over on an interim basis.
The defense stepped up to the task agaisnt Wofford, allowing just two field goals, 141 total yards and only eight first downs. On offense, Virginia Tech found the end zone in all four quarters as they racked up 461 total yards and 28 first downs.
Virginia Tech’s offense ranks 13th in the ACC with 369.5 total yards and 14th with 23.8 points per game. They have the third least productive passing game in the conference, averaging 232 yards per game. Kyron Drones completed 84.4% of his passes versus Wofford for 307 yards and 2 TDs. He also found the end zone twice with his legs. This season, the senior QB has 928 passing yards, 6 TDs, 3 INTs and he leads the team with four rushing touchdowns. Three receivers have double-digit catches and two have at least 200 receiving yards. The Hokies’ running game averages 127.5 yards per game and four years per carry and the offensive line has allowed 10 sacks.
They have the second-worst scoring defense in the ACC, allowing 29.8 points per game. The Hokies are also giving up 371.3 total yards on average, 12th in the conference. Their rush defense is getting bowled over to the run of 157.5 yards per game. Against the pass, Virginia Tech is giving up 213.8 yards a game, though they’ve been able to record eight sacks and two interceptions. Defensive lineman Kemari Copeland is fourth on the team with 16 tackles and is the only player with a sack and an interception. Ten Hokies have at least 12 tackles and linebacker Caleb Woodson leads the team with 24.
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Team notes
- Tennessee transfer Cameron Seldon has 117 all-purpose yards.
- John Love is 8-for-8 on PATs and 6-for-7 on field goal attempts, his longest make from 56 yards.
- Running backs have a combined 18 receptions.
- The defense is holding teams to a 41.9% success rate on third downs.
Short trip trips up North Carolina State
Things were going well for the Wolfpack all season until the second half of their game in Durham last weekend. Trailing by just a point at halftime, N.C. State was outscored 24-13 by Duke in the second half. Using a balanced attack, the Wolfpack offense had 535 yards and 26 first downs but turned the ball over four times. The defense allowed 418 yards and 22 first downs and the team committed eight penalties in the loss.
Offensively, the Wolfpack are putting up 31.5 points while gaining 445 total yards per game. Passing the ball, the team is averaging 270.8 yards per week. Minus the three interceptions, CJ Bailey enjoyed his best game passing the ball this season, hitting 74.4% of his passes for 364 yards and two touchdowns. The sophomore QB is fourth in the ACC with 1,126 passing yards with 7 TDs, 4 INTs and three rushing touchdowns. He’s hit six different receivers at least 10 times and three of them have at least 15 passes, with tight end Justin Joly leading the team with 18 receptions and 2 TDs. The N.C. State rushing game is averaging 174.3 yards per game. Hollywood Smothers has four rushing touchdowns and leads the nation with 503 rushing yards, 115 yards more than the next closest rusher. He also has 15 receptions. The line has allowed only four sacks.
The North Carolina State defense is giving up 29.3 points per game, the fourth-worst scoring defense in the ACC. They’ve allowed 414 total yards per game, and teams are beating them for 123.8 yards on the ground each time out. The Wolfpack have the third-worst passing defense in the conference, giving up 290.3 yards per game and they’ve only recorded five sacks to go with three interceptions. Sean Brown is tied for the lead in the ACC with 39 tackles and fellow linebacker Caden Fordham is third with 37 tackles.
Team notes
- Bailey ranks 15th in the county with his 71.9% completion rate.
- Smothers 80 carries are fourth most in the nation.
- C. State kickers are a combined 15-for-16 on PATs and 3-for-6 on field goal attempts.
- Team is tied for 24th in the nation with 93 first downs.
Virginia Tech vs. North Carolina State Picks
Spread Pick for Virginia Tech vs. North Carolina State
- North Carolina -10 (4 units)
This is the 53 meeting between the two teams, the last coming in 2023, won by N.C. State, 35-28. The Hokies have not looked well this season. They have a great quarterback in Drones, but the line in front of him has forced too many mistakes for the offense. They can beat Wofford, but just a week prior lost to Old Dominion by 19 points. Their defense is going to have their hands very full here. The Wolfpack offense is extremely dynamic. Bailey is calm in the pocket, and he spreads the ball all over the field. Smothers is sprinting into the spotlight and another big game here will have everyone talking about him. At home, it shouldn’t be an issue to get things going, they just need to keep the turnovers in check. All three Virginia Tech losses have been by at least 13 points.
Take the Wolfpack giving the points at home.
Over/Under Pick for Virginia Tech vs. North Carolina State
- Under 58 (4 units)
This matchup features a pair of teams whose offenses are in the bottom half of the ACC in terms of scoring. Virginia Tech’s 38 points versus Wofford should not be considered an impressive effort as a greater offense would have scored much more. Versus power conference defenses, they’ve managed to average 15.5 points per game. North Carolina State might be willing to bend a little bit, but they have much more size and weight than Wofford offered, so they should keep the Hokies off balance. I expect North Carolina State’s offense to handle the bulk of scoring in this game, but I don’t think they can go off enough to carry us over the line as this is a hefty number.
Take the under.
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