Virginia vs. Louisville Prediction and Picks for Saturday, October 4th, 2025
Use Code SSWC Two programs looking to take the next step in 2025 will square off on Saturday afternoon in this ACC showdown between the #24 Virginia Cavaliers (4-1, 2-0 ACC) and the Louisville Cardinals (4-0, 1-0 ACC). We’ve got you covered with our Virginia vs. Louisville prediction. Kickoff is scheduled for 2:30 ET from L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium in Louisville, KY. Don’t get sacked this football season! Try our College Football Picks!
#24 Cavaliers Upset Noles, Sit at 4-1
Coach Tony Elliot is now in his fourth season as the lead man of the Virginia Cavaliers, and it appears that the program is trending in the right direction. Virginia just toppled #8 Florida State at home last Friday night, winning the game in double overtime 46-38. They were 6.5-point underdogs in the spot. UVA has now improved to 4-1 overall, with their lone loss being a road defeat to NC State (35-31). With the conference realignment and scheduling fiasco, that wasn’t technically an ACC loss, so Virginia is 2-0 in ACC play. Their other win was against Stanford (48-20) at home.
In terms of personnel, it’s the graduate transfer from North Texas, Chandler Morris, leading the way under center. He has amassed 1,279 passing yards on a 71.6% completion rate, adding 10 touchdowns and four picks. WR Trell Harris has emerged as the top target, adding 366 yards and three touchdowns on 21 receptions. RB J’Mari Taylor has been a workhorse on the ground, registering 397 yards and seven touchdowns on 75 totes (5.3 YPC).
- Virginia has an updated win total of 8.5 (-130/+100), and they’re sitting at +1200 to win the ACC championship.
- Offensively, the Cavaliers are scoring 43.3 points per game (eighth), while averaging 499.5 yards per week (10th).
- Defensively, they are 64th in the country this year, conceding 25.0 points per game. They’re allowing 376.8 yards per contest, which is 65th.
Cardinals Handle Panthers, Stay Perfect
As for the Louisville Cardinals, they also appear to be the real deal in 2025 under third-year coach Jeff Brohm. Coach Brohm has posted a 23-8 (13-4 ACC) record at the helm, which includes this year’s perfect 4-0 start. Louisville logged season-opening non-conference victories over Eastern Kentucky (51-17), James Madison (28-14), and Bowling Green (40-17). They just picked up a gritty 34-27 road win over Pittsburgh last weekend to improve to 1-0 in ACC play. On the sports betting side of things, the Cardinals are just 1-3 ATS and they’re 3-1 to the over.
Sign Up Get $30 Premium Picks Credit + Exclusive Offers
Subscribe Now
Like Virginia, Louisville also has an experienced quarterback in senior Miller Moss. He comes over from USC after four seasons with the Trojans. Moss has been serviceable in 2025, throwing for 1,029 yards on a 65.6% completion rate, adding five touchdowns and three interceptions. RB Isaac Brown is the team’s top rusher, adding 268 yards and three touchdowns on 33 carries (8.1 YPC). Out wide, it’s the WR duo of Chris Ball (332 yards, 2 TD) and Caullin Lacy (266 yards, 2 TD) leading the way.
- The Cardinals are now projected to win 9.5 games (+130/-170), and they’re priced at +800 to win the conference title.
- Louisville’s offense has been excellent this season, ranking 27th in scoring (34.0 PPG), while putting up 365.0 yards per game (77th).
- On the defensive side, the Cardinals are 29th this season, allowing 19.3 points per game. In terms of yardage, they’re 23rd, conceding 307.7 yards per contest.
Virginia vs. Louisville Pick
Spread Pick for Virginia vs. Louisville
- Virginia +6.5 (-105) (5 units)
Both of these teams are coming out of absolute dogfights, and this is set to be another war before each program heads into their respective bye weeks. With all of that being said, someone has to win this game, and more importantly, someone has to cover. I’m riding with Virginia +6.5 points.
I’m just not sure that I trust this Louisville squad to lay nearly a full touchdown’s worth of points. Look, there is a reason that Miller Moss is not at USC anymore. It’s because he hasn’t proven that he can rise up and be a top-end starter on the college football landscape. He has a pedestrian 5/3 TD/INT ratio. I do not believe he’s the better quarterback in this game.
The Cardinals barely escaped last weekend against Pitt, and they’ve also had a game against James Madison earlier this season, where they went down 14-0 early in the contest. Louisville is not a polished program, and I have no interest in laying this many points against an upward-trending Virginia team.
Over/Under Pick for Virginia vs. Louisville
- Over 61.5 (-108) (5 units)
Now, while I’m not a huge “Miller Moss guy,” I do think he’ll find enough success to help get this final score over the total. This is a matchup against a Virginia defense that has been gashed all season. They’re allowing 25.0 points per game against FBS-level competition. Between the experienced Moss and this solid rushing attack, I like Louisville’s chances to hit the 30-point mark.
On the other side, Candler Morris and this UVA offense have been balling out this season. They’ve scored 31+ points in every game, and have reached the 46-point threshold in four of their five games. Virginia is an “over machine,” going 6-0 to the over in its last six games. Louisville is also 5-1 to the over in its last six contests. Give me the over in this matchup featuring a pair of experienced quarterbacks.
Betting on College Football?
- Bet with other College Football fans at the best sportsbooks
- Sign up today and get started with the latest college football sportsbook promos
Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win
New Users – Bet $5 Get $200 in Bet Reset Tokens for 5 Days
