Virginia vs. NC State Picks and Prediction, Saturday, September 6, 2025
The 2025 college football season continues this weekend, and ACC play gets underway with an intriguing matchup between the Virginia Cavaliers (1-0) and the NC State Wolfpack (1-0). We’ve got you covered with our Virginia vs. NC State prediction. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00 ET from Carter-Finley Stadium in Raleigh, NC. Don’t get penalized! Increase your bankroll with our NCAAF Betting Picks!
Cavaliers Hammer the Chanticleers
Coach Tony Elliot is back for his fourth season as the head coach of the Virginia Cavaliers, and he has compiled an underwhelming 12-23 (6-17 ACC) mark so far. That includes last week’s victory over Coastal Carolina (48-7), so it was good to see Virginia get off to a 1-0 start in the new campaign. The Cavaliers out-gained the Chanticleers (454-254) and won the turnover battle (0-3).
QB Chandler Morris turned in a big-time performance in week one, throwing for 264 yards and two touchdowns. The signal caller also led the way on the ground, adding 50 yards. J’Mari Taylor is set to be the lead backfield this season, and he logged 32 yards and two scores against Coastal. Out wide, the Cavaliers will lean on WRs Cam Ross (124 yards, 1 TD) and Jahmal Edrine (24 yards, 1 TD).
- Virginia has an adjusted win total of 6.5 (-175/+145) and they’re priced at +5000 to win the conference title.
- The Cavaliers finished last season ranked 105th in scoring (21.6 PPG), while coming in at 97th in yards per game (348.5).
- Defensively, they were 95th in points given up per game (30.2) and 104th in yards conceded per contest (422.1).
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Wolfpack Hold on Against the Pirates
The NC State Wolfpack got their season started with a win as well, holding off East Carolina in a 24-17 affair. They failed to cover as 14.0-point favorites, despite getting out to a 17-0 lead in the contest. This marked Coach Dave Doeren’s 88th win with the program, as he improved to 88-65 (47-51 ACC) during his 13-year tenure with the program. The Wolfpack are looking to build on a pedestrian 6-7 (3-5 ACC) campaign from 2024.
The offense was polished in the season debut, racking up 423 yards and going 7-15 on third-down conversions. QB CJ Bailey looked good, throwing for 318 yards and a 1/1 TD/INT ratio. He also logged 21 yards and a touchdown on the ground. Hollywood Smothers was the lead rusher, going for 76 yards and a touchdown on 22 totes. WRs Wesley Grimes (121 yards, 1 TD) and Teddy Hoffman (93 yards) will be the primary targets for Bailey this season.
- NC State’s win total currently sits at 6.5 (+125/-150), and the program is priced at +5500 to win the conference title.
- Touching on last year’s metrics, the Wolfpack were 56th in points per game (27.8) and 83rd in yards per week (366.0).
- They were 98th in defensive scoring (30.9 PAPG) and 82nd in yards conceded per game (394.3).
Virginia vs. NC State Pick
Spread Pick for Virginia vs. NC State
- NC State Wolfpack -2.5 (-110) (5 units)
Virginia looked really solid in their 48-7 beatdown over Coastal Carolina last weekend, but I think this line of UVA +2.5 is a bit of an overreaction to that performance. This appears to be a nice sell-high spot on the Cavaliers, so I’ll fade them as they hit the road for their first away game.
Ultimately, I just have a pessimistic outlook on Coach Tony Elliot and Virginia. The program is just 12-23 SU and 6-17 SU in ACC play during his tenure. They’re also 1-5 SU in their last six meetings with NC State, and this spread of 2.5 points falls in the “pick ‘em range,” which is why I think the straight-up data matters. I think we’re going to see a ton of scoring in this game, but I trust this dynamic backfield of CJ Bailey and Hollywood Smothers to outpace the opposition at home.
Over/Under Pick for Virginia vs. NC State
- Over 53.5 (-115) (5 units)
As I was alluding to above, I’m anticipating an absolute barnburner on Saturday afternoon. I’m taking the over. Last season, both of these defenses were horrendous, each conceding 30+ points per game. NC State has also seen eight of its last 10 conference games go over the total. Virginia is 6-2 to the over in its last eight road games.
Both offenses were firing in week one, each recording 420+ total offensive yards. With two experienced quarterbacks taking on questionable defenses, I think it’s best to lock in the over.
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