Virginia vs SMU Picks and Prediction for Saturday October 17, 2026
7The Virginia Cavaliers will travel to Dallas, Texas, Saturday afternoon for an ACC matchup against the SMU Mustangs at Gerald J. Ford Stadium. Kickoff is scheduled for 12 PM with television coverage available on The CW. Virginia enters the weekend with a 4-2 overall record following a narrow 28-25 victory against Syracuse in their last outing. The Cavaliers will look to build on that performance and continue improving their position in the conference standings. SMU comes into this matchup ranked No. 24 nationally with a 4-1 overall record. The Mustangs have been effective offensively and will look to continue their early-season success against a good Virginia team. SMU is a 7.5-point favorite, with the total set at 51.5 points. The Mustangs are -340 on the moneyline, while Virginia comes in at +270. Stay in the action with our latest College Football Picks.
Virginia looks for 2 in a row
Beau Pribula is leading Virginia this season with 1074 yards and 13 touchdowns on 91 completions, along with 97 yards and one score on 58 carries. Jekail Middlebrook leads the Virginia offense with 337 yards and three scores on 67 carries. Xay Davis has added 199 yards and two touchdowns on 38 carries, and Xavier Brown has chipped in 169 yards and two scores on 32 carries this season. Kameron Courtney leads the team with 204 yards and two touchdowns on 18 receptions. Da’Shawn Martin has added 13 catches for 190 yards and five touchdowns.
Defensively, Virginia had some issues a week ago, giving up 430 yards and 25 points despite the win. Offensively, Virginia scored 28 points, 21 in the second half, on 288 total yards. Beau Pribula led the way for the offense in their last game with 119 yards and one touchdown on 11 completions, along with 34 yards on 9 carries. Jekail Middlebrook led the team with 95 yards and two touchdowns on 17 carries, and Xay Davis added six carries for 39 yards and one score. Da’Shawn Martin led the way with 48 yards and one touchdown on 2 receptions.
SMU goes for the ACC home win
Kevin Jennings leads the SMU offense this season with 1588 yards and 14 touchdowns on 117 completions, along with 69 yards and two touchdowns on 32 carries. Kendrick Raphael leads SMU on the ground with 418 yards and six scores on 77 carries. Yamir Knight is the top receiver on the team with 367 yards and two touchdowns on 29 catches. Jalen Cooper has added 290 yards and one score on 19 catches, and Yannick Smith has added 14 catches for 231 yards and two scores. Theo Melin Ohrstrom has been vital for SMU with 117 yards and four touchdowns on 11 catches this season.
Offensively, SMU did the work a week ago, scoring 25 points on 218 total yards. Defensively, SMU allowed sixteen points on 322 total yards but forced one turnover to seal the victory. Kevin Jennings led the way for the SMU offense, completing 20 passes for 160 yards and two scores in the game. Kendrick Raphael was the top ball carrier on the roster with 45 yards and one touchdown on 15 carries. Jalen Cooper led the team with 45 yards on five receptions. Derrick McFall added 33 yards and one touchdown on three receptions. Randy Pittman Jr. chipped in three catches for 23 yards in one score.
Virginia vs SMU Picks and Prediction
Pick: SMU Mustangs -7.5
SMU returns home Saturday afternoon looking to continue its strong start against a Virginia team that has shown improvement this season. The Mustangs have been effective offensively and should be able to create consistent scoring opportunities against the Cavaliers defense. Virginia has enough talent to remain competitive, but the Cavaliers will need to avoid turnovers and limit explosive plays against SMU. The Mustangs should benefit from playing in front of their home crowd and will look to establish control early in the game. Virginia will need to find ways to keep pace offensively if SMU gets off to a fast start. Look for the Mustangs to use their offensive advantage to secure another important ACC victory.
Pick: Over 51.5
Virginia and SMU should have enough offensive opportunities to push this game over the posted total Saturday afternoon. The Mustangs have been productive offensively and should be able to create problems for the Cavaliers defense throughout the game. Virginia has shown the ability to move the football and will need to generate points to remain competitive against SMU. The Mustangs should be able to establish their offense early, which could force Virginia into a more aggressive offensive approach. Both teams have enough offensive talent to create explosive plays and put points on the board. Expect SMU to lead the scoring while Virginia contributes enough offense to push this matchup over the total.