Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs. Missouri State Bears Picks and Prediction for Saturday, September 27, 2025
Use Code SSWC We have an intriguing Conference USA matchup in Week 5 of the college football season as the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (3-1, 1-0 CUSA) will be traveling to Robert W. Plaster Stadium in Springfield, Missouri on Saturday evening to take on the Missouri State Bears (2-2, 0-0) in our Hilltoppers vs Bears prediction. The game is airing exclusively on ESPN+, so this game is going to be interesting as both teams started the year off strong. The Hilltoppers are coming off a 31-16 home victory over the Nevada Wolf Pack on Saturday. The Bears are coming off Saturday’s 42-10 home win against the UT Martin Skyhawks. Before kickoff: NCAAF predictions for Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs. Missouri State Bears in one clean snapshot.
Hilltoppers Looking Well Early On
The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers are looking to figure out how to continue stepping up to begin the season, as they are now 3-1 (1-0 Conference USA) entering this game as they attempt to build a winning streak. The Hilltoppers’ offense has been excelling offensively as they are only scoring 37.0 points per game, ranking tied for 37th in the sport. Quarterback Maverick McIvor has played at an outstanding level so far this season as he has completed 102-of-153 (66.7%) of his passes for 1,157 yards with 10 passing touchdowns to two interceptions. The team has three receivers of at least 200 yards and wide receiver K.D. Hutchinson has been showing his skills as he has 14 catches for 202 yards (14.4 yards per reception) with three receiving touchdowns.
The defense of Western Kentucky has been a middling aspect for the program as they are tied for 67th in college football as they are giving up 22.8 points per game. The Hilltoppers are doing an okay job in terms of applying pressure as they have posted five sacks, four interceptions, one forced fumble, and two fumble recoveries during the season.
Injury Report for Western Kentucky
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No injuries to report
Bears Looking to Continue Clicking Offensively
The Missouri State Bears need to figure out how to play well if they want to continue being threats after their 42-10 home win over the UT Martin Skyhawks. Missouri State is tied for 106th in the country with 21.5 points per game scored. Quarterback Jacob Clark has been playing at a solid level as he has completed 80-of-120 (66.7%) of his passes for 1,052 yards with eight passing touchdowns to six interceptions while also running 35 times for seven yards (0.2 yards per attempt) with two rushing touchdowns. Running back Shomari Lawrence has been a force out of the backfield as he recorded 50 rushes for 208 yards (4.2 yards per carry) with one rushing touchdown while adding eight receptions for 44 yards (5.5 yards per catch) thus far.
The defense for the Bears has been playing at a terrible level as they are giving up 32.8 points per game, which is tied for 120th in college football. Their defense has turned the pressure up as they have recorded five sacks, three interceptions, four forced fumbles, and four fumble recoveries heading into this game.
Injury Report for Missouri State
- Running back Sage White: Undisclosed (Questionable)
- Tight end Gary Clinton: Leg (OUT)
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs. Missouri State Bears Pick
Spread Pick for Western Kentucky vs. Missouri State
- Missouri State Bears +165 (4 units)
These teams are doing well to open the season, but the Bears are in a better position to secure a win in this game. Looking at the defenses lately, the Hilltoppers are allowing 30.5 points in their last two games while the Bears are giving up 19.3 points in their previous three games since allowing 73 in the opening game against USC. Maverick McIvor has not been playing as well lately as in his last two games; he has two passing touchdowns to two interceptions after having eight touchdowns and zero interceptions in his first two games. Missouri State’s defense is going to be able to slow down Western Kentucky, while Missouri State’s passing attack should control the game. Go with the Missouri State Bears to win as a home underdog.
Over/Under Pick for Western Kentucky vs. Missouri State
- Under 62.5 (5 units)
Expecting more than a point per minute in this game feels way too high as the defenses can get stops. When diving into the third-down efficiency, Missouri State specifically struggles to move the chains. Western Kentucky is converting on 47.37% (27-57) of their attempts while Missouri State is getting a first down on just 28.85% (15-52) so far this season. Running the football has not shown to be too effective as the Bears are averaging 2.7 yards per carry with three rushing touchdowns as a program, while the Hilltoppers are recording 3.7 yards per attempt with seven rushing touchdowns entering this game. All in all, go with under 62.5 total points to hit here.
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