Wisconsin vs. Michigan Prediction and Picks for Saturday, October 4th, 2025
Use Code SSWC After a built-in bye week, the #20 Michigan Wolverines (3-1, 1-0 B1G) return home to take on a Wisconsin Badgers (2-2, 0-1 B1G) squad that has dropped two straight games. We’ve got you covered with our Wisconsin vs. Michigan prediction on Saturday. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00 ET from Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor, MI. Looking to win big this football season? We have the best College Football Picks to help you out!
Badgers Lose To Terps at Home
The Wisconsin Badgers are in the third year of the Coach Luke Fickell era, and if we’re being honest, this has been a failed project so far. The program is 15-15 (8-11 B1G) under his command, which includes this year’s 2-2 start in 2025. Wisconsin opened up the season with a couple of wins against Miami (OH) (17-0) and Middle Tennessee (42-10), before getting hammered by #19 Alabama (38-14) and Maryland (27-10), more recently. The Maryland loss took place two weeks ago so they are coming off a bye. Their 0-1 start in Big Ten play has them in a last-place tie. The Badgers also have five ranked opponents on their schedule across the final eight games.
Starting quarterback Billy Edwards (knee) is still sidelined, which means we’ll see the sophomore transfer from San Diego State, Danny O’Neil, under center. The signal caller has thrown for 640 yards on a 70.6% completion rate, adding five touchdowns and five interceptions. TE Lance Mason has emerged as the top target, hauling in 14 catches for 177 yards and two touchdowns. RB Dilin Jones leads the rushing attack, gaining 154 yards and a touchdown on 35 carries. The Badgers are usually dominant on the ground, but they are producing just 3.1 yards per carry.
- Wisconsin’s updated win total is just 3.5 (-130/+100), and they’re a +30000 longshot to win the Big Ten title.
- Offensively, the Badgers are scoring 20.8 points per game (93rd), while averaging 323.5 yards per week (106th).
- Defensively, they are 27th in the country this year, conceding 18.8 points per game. They’re allowing 284.5 yards per contest, which is 14th.
#20 Wolverines Edge Out Huskers
Meanwhile, the Michigan Wolverines likely don’t have a championship-caliber team in 2025, but make no mistakes, this is still a top-of-the-conference team in the Big Ten. After missing a couple of games due to a self-imposed suspension, Coach Sherrone Moore returns to the sidelines this weekend. His Michigan squad went 2-0 in his absence, taking care of Central Michigan (63-3) and Nebraska (30-27). They’re now 3-1, after opening the year with a win over New Mexico (34-17) and a loss on the road to #18 Oklahoma (24-13). The Wolverines are coming off of a bye week.
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True freshman Bryce Underwood is running the offense this season. In the passing game, he has accumulated 733 yards on a 56.9% completion rate, adding two touchdowns and one pick. He has 169 yards and three touchdowns on the ground, while RB Justice Haynes has led the way with 537 yards and six touchdowns. WR Donaven McCulley (197 yards) is the top pass catcher in the Michigan offense. In their win over Nebraska on September 20, the Wolverines rushed for 286 yards and three scores.
- The Wolverines currently have a win total of 8.5 (-165/+130), and they’re priced at +1200 to win the Big Ten.
- Michigan’s offense has been elite this season, ranking 22nd in scoring (35.0 PPG), while putting up 440.0 yards per game (27th).
- On the defensive side, the Wolverines are 25th this season, allowing 17.8 points per game. In terms of yardage, they’re 17th, conceding 292.0 yards per contest.
Wisconsin vs. Michigan Pick
Spread Pick for Wisconsin vs. Michigan
- Wisconsin Badgers +17.5 (-110) (5 units)
This is a pretty sizable spread for two of the storied programs in the Big Ten, but I do think it’s warranted considering this ugly start to the season for Wisconsin. However, we have to draw the line somewhere, and I’m going to hold my nose and take the points with the Badgers.
My biggest issue with Michigan is that they’re extremely one-dimensional offensively. Freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood may be the next big thing in college football, but he only has a 56.9% completion rate and is averaging 183.3 passing yards per game. He has just two touchdown passes and an interception this year, so clearly this isn’t a dynamic passing attack from the Wolverines. Meanwhile, the Badgers are still elite defensively. They’re fourth in the country in rushing yards allowed per attempt (2.1). I think we see a low-scoring, defensive battle, so I’ll gladly take all of these points with Wisco.
Over/Under Pick for Wisconsin vs. Michigan
- Under 43.5 (-110) (5 units)
Let’s pick it back up with the defenses. These are two elite defenses, and they should be primed for big-time performances against the opposing run-heavy offenses. I mentioned that Wisconsin’s a top-five rushing defense in the country, well, Michigan is right behind them in yards allowed per carry at sixth (2.4). Michigan is allowing only 17.8 points per game against FBS-level competition, while Wisconsin is at 18.9 PAPG.
With neither team having much of a passing attack, this game screams, “UNDER!” Let’s keep the ball on the ground and keep the clock churning – give me the under.
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