Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians Prediction and Picks - September 25, 2025
The MLB season is nearing its conclusion, and the AL Central race is as tight as it gets with the Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians battling for the division lead; look inside for our prediction and picks. The Detroit Tigers (85-73, 39-38 away) face off against the Cleveland Guardians (86-72, 43-34 home) on Thursday, September 25, 2025, at 5:40 PM ET at Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio. The weather is expected to be a pleasant 70°F, with clear skies. This game marks the sixth and final matchup of the series, with Cleveland winning the last two games, including a 5-1 victory on September 24. The Tigers have yet to announce their starting pitcher, while the Guardians will send left-hander Parker Messick (3-0, 2.08 ERA) to the mound. Both teams are battling for playoff positioning in the AL Central, with Cleveland holding a slim one-game lead over Detroit.
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Tigers Stumble as Playoff hopes fade in AL Central Race
The Detroit Tigers enter this game on an eight-game losing streak, including back-to-back losses to Cleveland in this series. In their most recent game, the Tigers managed only one run on five hits, with Riley Greene driving in the lone RBI. Greene has been the Tigers' offensive leader this season, boasting 35 home runs, 110 RBIs, and a .261 batting average. However, the team’s offense has struggled recently, scoring just 14 runs over their last five games.
Detroit’s pitching staff has been inconsistent, with a team ERA of 3.98 and a WHIP of 1.25. Their bullpen has been taxed during this losing streak, and the lack of a confirmed starter for this game raises concerns. Injuries have also plagued the Tigers, with key players like Javier Báez (day-to-day) and Matt Vierling (10-day IL) unavailable. Despite their struggles, Detroit ranks 15th in MLB in runs scored (745) and 12th in home runs (194), but their .247 team batting average ranks in the bottom half of the league.
Guardians Rise to Claim AL Central Dominance
The Cleveland Guardians have won two straight games against Detroit, including a dominant 5-1 victory on September 24. JosĂ© RamĂrez led the offense with a home run and two RBIs, while the pitching staff held Detroit to just one run. RamĂrez has been Cleveland’s most consistent hitter this season, batting .284/.360/.507 with 30 home runs and 84 RBIs.
Cleveland’s pitching has been a strength, with a team ERA of 3.69 and a WHIP of 1.27. Parker Messick has been outstanding in limited action, posting a 2.08 ERA and 31 strikeouts in 34.2 innings. The Guardians’ offense, however, has been less impressive, ranking 26th in runs scored (621) and 28th in home runs (163). Injuries have also impacted Cleveland, with players like John Means (60-day IL) and Nolan Jones (10-day IL) sidelined. Despite these challenges, Cleveland’s strong pitching and home-field advantage have kept them competitive.
Guardians vs. Tigers Pick
Spread Pick for Guardians vs. Tigers
- Cleveland Guardians -1.5 (5 Units)
The Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians have displayed inconsistent performances against the spread (ATS) and the run line throughout the season. The Tigers hold a 71-87 ATS record (44.9%) overall and a 32-45 ATS record (41.6%) on the road, struggling significantly in recent games by failing to cover the run line in seven of their last eight matchups. On the other hand, the Guardians are 48-62 ATS (43.6%) in league games and 39-42 ATS (48.1%) at home. Cleveland has been more reliable in this series, covering the run line in their last two games against Detroit with decisive wins by three and four runs, respectively. Notable trends include Detroit’s 1-7 ATS record in their last eight games and Cleveland’s 5-2 ATS record in their last seven home games. Additionally, the Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games against left-handed starters, while Cleveland is 3-0 ATS in games with a total set at 7.5 or lower. With Parker Messick’s strong pitching and Cleveland’s recent form, the Guardians are a confident pick to cover the run line. Go with the Guardians!
Over/Under Pick for Guardians vs. Tigers
- Under 7.5 (5 units)
Detroit has seen low-scoring outcomes in four of its last five games, while Cleveland has had similar results in three of their last five. Both teams have struggled offensively in this series, combining for just 14 runs over the last two games. Recent trends highlight Detroit’s tendency for fewer runs, as they’ve finished below the projected total in seven of their last ten games, including five of their last seven against AL Central opponents and four of their last five against left-handed starters. Cleveland has also leaned toward lower-scoring games, with six of their last ten home games and all three of Parker Messick’s starts resulting in fewer runs than expected. Additionally, Cleveland has stayed below the total in five of their last seven games with a line of 7.5 or lower, while Detroit has done so in four of their last five road games. Given these trends and the recent offensive struggles of both teams, betting Under is the recommendation. Go UNDER and Good Luck!