Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Guardians Pick and Prediction September 11th, 2025
Two AL Central teams desperate to keep up in the wild card race will go head-to-head when the Guardians host the Royals on Thursday at 7:15 p.m. EST in Progressive Field. Check out our Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Guardians pick and prediction here!
Kansas City currently has a 74-72 record, trailing the Mariners for the final wild card by four games. The Royals need to put the pedal to the metal right now, as they are 4-6 in their last ten and playing on the road. Meanwhile, the Guardians are 74-71 and trailing Texas by two games, along with the Mariners by 3.5 games for the final spot. Cleveland is a -150 money line favorite while the total is set at 7.5 runs. Can the Royals keep themselves in the hunt with an upset win on the road here?
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Kansas City Needs to Climb
The Royals earned a comeback win, scoring two runs in the seventh to win by a score of 4-3. The top three hitters of Maikel Garcia, Bobby Witt Jr., and Vinnie Pasquantino each had multiple hits on the day. The former and latter contributed an RBI each while Nick Loftin had a pinch-hit RBI and Jonathan India had an RBI as well. It was a bullpen day for Kansas City, as nobody lasted more than two innings, but they were effective enough to get the win.
Kansas City was not the headline destination for any key players at the deadline, but they did shake up the roster ever so slightly. Julio E. Rodriguez was acquired from Seattle (not the one you're thinking of) for cash. Randal Grichuk was then acquired from Arizona for Andrew Hoffman. Later on, Freddy Fermin was sent to San Diego for Ryan Bergert and Stephen Kolek. Pittsburgh traded Bailey Falter to Kansas City for Callan Moss and Evan Sisk as well. The Royals also got long-time Giant Mike Yastrzemski for Yunior Marte to close things up.
Stephen Kolek will take the hill as the Royals inch closer and closer to a potential playoff spot. This year, the righty has a 4-5 record with a 3.99 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP to go with 59 strikeouts through 85.2 innings and 15 starts. Kolek has not yet faced the Guardians this season, but he has only had four starts since the beginning of July due to injury. His last start against the Tigers was solid, going six innings while giving up only four hits and one run, striking out three and walking none in the process.
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Cleveland Closing the Gap
The Guardians couldn't muster a win as they fell by a score of 4-3 to the Royals in their latest outing. Brayan Rocchio and Steven Kwan were the only ones to have multiple hits on the day while Kyle Manzardo had a homer with two RBI to lead the club. Bo Naylor chipped in the other RBI and Logan Allen gave up two runs on seven hits in five innings as the starter.
In typical Cleveland fashion, the Guardians made only quiet moves. In fact, Cleveland didn't do much at the deadline, trading Shane Bieber to the Toronto Blue Jays in exchange for Khal Stephen on the deadline day. They also sent Paul Sewald to the Tigers for future considerations. Most of Cleveland's roster is under contract for not only the remainder of this year, but next year as well. The offseason might be a bit more exciting for the Guardians, but they should feel happy still in the hunt at this point in time.
Gavin Williams will take the ball as the starter for the Guardians in a borderline must-win situation. The righty is 10-5 on the year with 146 strikeouts in 150.2 innings and 28 starts. He has a 3.17 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP on the year, both lower than his career averages. Williams had a poor April with a 5.48 ERA, but has excelled since with an ERA no lower than 3.30 in each month after that. Williams has faced Kansas City twice already this year, combining for four earned runs given up in eleven innings.
Royals vs Guardians Pick
Spread Pick for Royals vs Guardians Pick
- Washington Nationals Money Line (4 units)
There isn't much that separates these two teams, which is why I'll give the edge to the underdog here in the Royals. Stephen Kolek has been solid across his last four starts with eight runs surrendered in 24.2 innings pitched. The Royals are slightly below .500 on the road, but they have proven they can come back as evidenced by the previous game. Having Cleveland at a -150 money line favorite doesn't excite me as much as the value of the underdog in Kansas City at +110. Cleveland's bullpen has had trouble as of late as well, giving me more confidence in the Royals.
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
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| 1 |  Rob Vincilleti | +1,502.00 |
| 2 |  Pro Sports Picks | +1,421.00 |
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| 4 |  David Delano | +492.00 |
| 5 |  Michael Briggs | +355.00 |
Over/Under Pick for Royals vs Guardians
- Under 7.5 (4units)
At first, I was surprised by the total being that low, but these two pitchers have been solid as of late. Gavin Williams has had success against the Royals in his career, giving up two runs or less in each of his last three starts against them. Overall, Williams has given up one run or less in three of his last four starts. Kolek isn't far behind with two runs or less given up in his last three starts. Although Kolek doesn't have as much experience pitching against Cleveland, both teams have averaged under four runs per game on offense. Kansas City averages 7.70 runs per game between themselves and their opponent and they are 84-61 on the under this year. Cleveland is 73-67 on the under as well, and they are averaging just over eight runs per game between themselves and their opponent.
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