Las Vegas Raiders vs. New England Patriots Prediction and Picks, September 7, 2025
Use Code SSWC Las Vegas Raiders vs. New England Patriots: Week 1 Season Opener Preview
The NFL kicks off this weekend with a week 1 matchup between the Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots. Look inside for our prediction and picks. The Las Vegas Raiders (0-0, 0-0 away) will face the New England Patriots (0-0, 0-0 home) on Sunday, September 7, 2025, at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA. The game kicks off at 12:00 PM ET and will be broadcast on CBS under expected 66°F conditions. Both teams enter with new head coaches - Pete Carroll for the Raiders and Mike Vrabel for the Patriots - marking a fresh era for each franchise. The Raiders' last preseason game resulted in a 20-10 loss to Arizona, while the Patriots fell 42-10 to the Giants. When it comes to pro football picks, our NFL Predictions are stellar.
Raiders Seek Redemption Under Carroll's Leadership
Las Vegas concluded their preseason with mixed results, including a 20-10 loss to Arizona, where Geno Smith completed 68.4% of passes for 702 yards and 5 touchdowns across four preseason appearances. The Raiders' offense showed flashes, with Zamir White and Raheem Mostert contributing in the run game, but struggled to find consistency. Defensively, they allowed 20+ points in three of their five most recent contests, including preseason and 2024 matchups. The Raiders' last regular-season victory came on December 29, 2024, against New Orleans (25-10), showcasing their potential when executing balanced offensive schemes.
Geno Smith enters as the returning starter with full participation in practice, while CB Kyu Blu Kelly also reports healthy. The Raiders face significant absences with CB Lonnie Johnson Jr. and QB Aidan O'Connell on injured reserve. Carroll's defensive philosophy will be tested against a Patriots team that averaged 34.6 points in their last five games. Smith's career 64.8% completion rate and 88.0 passer rating provide stability, though his 72 career interceptions remain a concern. The Raiders finished +3 in giveaway/takeaway margin in 2024, a trend Smith must maintain.
Patriots Aim for Strong Start in Vrabel's Debut
New England's preseason concluded with a 42-10 loss to the Giants, overshadowing earlier wins against Minnesota (20-12) and Washington (48-18). Mike Vrabel's squad demonstrated offensive explosiveness in those victories, with Terrell Jennings scoring a rushing touchdown against Washington. Their success will depend on the improvement of Drake Maye, who completed 66.6% of his passes for 2,276 yards in about half the season as a rookie. He threw for 15 TDs and 10 picks but also showed off his running ability with 421 yards rushing and two TDs. The addition of Stefon Diggs gives Maye something he did not have last season-a legitimate No. 1 receiver.
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Defensively, the Pats should be strong under Vrabel. Starting corner Christian Gonzalez is out. New England's preseason stats show a 22.0 average point differential, though their final exhibition game raised concerns. Defensively, they allowed 300+ yards only once in their last five games, suggesting schematic adaptability under the new coaching staff.
Raiders vs. Patriots Pick
Spread Pick for Raiders vs. Patriots
- New England Patriots -2.5 (4 Units)
Both teams finished 2024 with identical 7-9-1 ATS records, but New England performed better in their last 10 games (6-4-0 ATS vs. Raiders' 4-5-1). Historical trends favor New England at home, where they've covered 3 of their last 5 as favorites, while Las Vegas is 3-5-0 ATS as away underdogs since 2024. Adding the experienced Vrabel as the head coach is certainly an upgrade over Jerrod Mayo. With both teams debuting new coaches, situational trends show the Patriots perform better with equal rest (6-4-1 ATS) compared to the Raiders (3-6-1 ATS). Given New England's home advantage and superior recent ATS performance, backing the Patriots -2.5 is the recommended play. Go with New England!
Over/Under Pick for Raiders vs. Patriots
- Over 43.5 (5 Units)
The 43.5-point total reflects expectations of a defensive battle, but historical data suggests otherwise. The loss of Gonzales is a tough loss for the New England secondary. Maye should also produce some points with the addition of Diggs. These teams have exceeded the total in 78% of their recent Foxborough meetings, with an average combined score of 47.3 points in those games. Both teams averaged over 24 points in preseason action, and the Raiders' last five games hit the over 60% of the time. New England's preseason games averaged 47.2 total points, while Las Vegas' averaged 41.2. Weather conditions (66°F) won't inhibit passing attacks, and both coaches have offensive-minded coordinators. With seven of nine historical matchups here going OVER, plus both teams' showing offensive potential in preseason, confidently betting OVER 43.5 points presents strong value despite the low posted total. Go OVER and Good Luck!
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