2026 MLB Betting Trends: Team Run Line, Moneyline, and Totals Records

By: Al MacMillan Updated 08/05/2026, 11:57 AM ET

The 2026 MLB season has produced clear separation in the betting market, and the team-by-team numbers tell the story. The Tampa Bay Rays have been the most profitable club to back on the run line, while the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets have been steady money-losers no matter the side. Below are the full 30-team rankings for every major market, sorted by return on investment, to sharpen your MLB picks and predictions.

Records reflect flat 1-unit stakes at the closing line through August 5, 2026. A positive ROI means blindly backing that side all season would have shown a profit.

Four angles stand out across the full board this season: Tampa Bay on the run line (63-49, plus 16.6 percent), Washington on the first-5 run line (73-42, plus 18.9 percent), the Mets on team-total Unders (plus 15.3 percent), and St. Louis on full-game Unders (45-64, plus 11.4 percent). Each is anchored by a large sample, which is what separates a genuine market edge from a hot streak.

The run line applies a 1.5-run spread to every game. Tampa Bay leads the league at 63-49, with Milwaukee and Atlanta close behind. On the other end, Philadelphia has been baseball's worst run-line team by a wide margin.

RankTeamATS RecordUnitsROI
1Tampa Bay Rays63-49+22.50u+16.6%
2Milwaukee Brewers60-53+14.60u+11.2%
3Atlanta Braves58-54+10.30u+8.0%
4Washington Nationals66-47+9.55u+6.1%
5Chicago White Sox64-45+6.30u+3.9%
6Boston Red Sox56-52+5.30u+3.8%
7San Diego Padres60-52+2.10u+1.4%
8Baltimore Orioles58-54+1.40u+0.9%
9Arizona Diamondbacks60-50+0.95u+0.6%
10New York Yankees54-59-0.95u-0.7%
11Houston Astros59-56-1.70u-1.1%
12Chicago Cubs54-59-1.85u-1.4%
13Cincinnati Reds61-50-2.40u-1.5%
14Pittsburgh Pirates56-56-2.65u-1.8%
15St. Louis Cardinals61-50-3.70u-2.3%
16Minnesota Twins61-53-4.30u-2.7%
17Colorado Rockies60-54-4.25u-3.0%
18Miami Marlins58-55-5.50u-3.6%
19Detroit Tigers52-56-6.15u-4.3%
20Cleveland Guardians54-59-8.55u-5.8%
21New York Mets51-61-9.45u-6.8%
22Toronto Blue Jays54-59-11.00u-7.4%
23San Francisco Giants55-57-15.05u-9.5%
24Texas Rangers50-61-19.20u-12.8%
25Los Angeles Angels54-58-19.85u-12.9%
26Los Angeles Dodgers50-64-17.20u-13.0%
27Kansas City Royals52-58-22.40u-14.1%
28Athletics52-61-22.60u-14.8%
29Seattle Mariners43-71-20.25u-16.3%
30Philadelphia Phillies45-68-29.85u-22.1%

Moneyline ROI rewards teams the market has underrated, not just the ones that win most. The Chicago White Sox top the board at 59-53 because so many of those wins came at plus money, with Tampa Bay second and Atlanta third. The Mets have been the single biggest moneyline drain in the sport.

RankTeamRecordUnitsROI
1Chicago White Sox59-53+13.35u+11.1%
2Tampa Bay Rays67-46+13.35u+9.4%
3Atlanta Braves68-45+10.70u+7.0%
4Milwaukee Brewers70-43+9.75u+5.9%
5Arizona Diamondbacks60-54+7.35u+5.5%
6Washington Nationals55-60+4.35u+3.5%
7Chicago Cubs65-49+4.05u+2.7%
8Miami Marlins58-56+3.10u+2.3%
9St. Louis Cardinals56-58+2.35u+1.9%
10San Diego Padres59-55+0.85u+0.6%
11Boston Red Sox61-51+0.40u+0.3%
12Houston Astros59-56-0.65u-0.5%
13Minnesota Twins56-58-1.00u-0.8%
14Colorado Rockies45-69-2.40u-2.1%
15Cincinnati Reds54-58-3.55u-2.8%
16Cleveland Guardians57-57-4.20u-3.1%
17Philadelphia Phillies61-53-5.40u-3.2%
18New York Yankees64-50-7.00u-4.2%
19Baltimore Orioles55-58-7.40u-5.6%
20Texas Rangers56-58-7.45u-5.6%
21Pittsburgh Pirates57-58-10.10u-7.1%
22Los Angeles Dodgers69-45-17.55u-8.0%
23Detroit Tigers55-58-12.85u-9.0%
24Seattle Mariners55-59-19.85u-12.8%
25San Francisco Giants48-66-16.45u-12.9%
26Toronto Blue Jays53-61-19.20u-13.4%
27Kansas City Royals47-67-20.10u-15.9%
28Los Angeles Angels43-70-21.20u-17.6%
29Athletics45-68-24.40u-19.2%
30New York Mets48-66-33.25u-23.3%

Totals splits cut both ways, so we rank the Over and the Under separately. The Chicago White Sox and Pittsburgh have been the league's premier Over teams, while St. Louis and Philadelphia anchor the Under side.

Best Over Teams

RankTeamOver Record (O-U)ROI
1Chicago White Sox63-47+9.5%
2Pittsburgh Pirates64-48+9.0%
3Minnesota Twins61-46+7.9%
4Texas Rangers61-47+7.3%
5Washington Nationals61-48+7.1%
6Houston Astros61-48+5.7%
7Cincinnati Reds59-51+2.3%
8Chicago Cubs60-53+1.8%
9Seattle Mariners57-50+1.7%
10Baltimore Orioles58-51+1.4%
11San Francisco Giants53-51-2.7%
12Miami Marlins56-55-3.8%
13Toronto Blue Jays55-56-5.1%
14Athletics54-55-5.1%
15Atlanta Braves53-54-5.1%
16Colorado Rockies54-57-7.4%
17New York Mets49-56-10.6%
18Los Angeles Dodgers53-60-10.6%
19Tampa Bay Rays50-58-10.8%
20Kansas City Royals52-60-10.8%
21Detroit Tigers50-58-10.9%
22Cleveland Guardians53-61-10.9%
23San Diego Padres52-60-11.2%
24Los Angeles Angels50-61-13.4%
25Boston Red Sox49-59-13.4%
26Arizona Diamondbacks48-60-14.2%
27New York Yankees49-61-14.7%
28Milwaukee Brewers49-62-15.2%
29Philadelphia Phillies47-61-15.8%
30St. Louis Cardinals45-64-20.5%

Best Under Teams

RankTeamUnder Record (O-U)ROI
1St. Louis Cardinals45-64+11.4%
2Philadelphia Phillies47-61+7.8%
3Milwaukee Brewers49-62+6.8%
4Arizona Diamondbacks48-60+6.2%
5New York Yankees49-61+5.8%
6Los Angeles Angels50-61+5.4%
7Boston Red Sox49-59+4.2%
8Detroit Tigers50-58+2.7%
9Kansas City Royals52-60+2.7%
10San Diego Padres52-60+2.5%
11Tampa Bay Rays50-58+2.1%
12Cleveland Guardians53-61+1.6%
13Los Angeles Dodgers53-60+1.5%
14New York Mets49-56+1.4%
15Colorado Rockies54-57-1.4%
16Atlanta Braves53-54-2.7%
17Athletics54-55-3.2%
18Toronto Blue Jays55-56-3.3%
19Miami Marlins56-55-5.0%
20San Francisco Giants53-51-5.6%
21Chicago Cubs60-53-9.9%
22Baltimore Orioles58-51-10.0%
23Seattle Mariners57-50-10.0%
24Cincinnati Reds59-51-10.8%
25Washington Nationals61-48-14.9%
26Houston Astros61-48-15.1%
27Texas Rangers61-47-15.4%
28Minnesota Twins61-46-17.0%
29Pittsburgh Pirates64-48-17.4%
30Chicago White Sox63-47-18.3%

Team totals isolate one club's run production rather than the combined score. Minnesota and the Chicago Cubs have cleared their team numbers more than any other lineups, while the Mets and Angels have been the most dependable team-total Under sides.

Best Team-Total Over Teams

RankTeamOver Record (O-U)ROI
1Minnesota Twins65-49+6.7%
2Chicago Cubs65-49+6.7%
3Atlanta Braves64-49+6.4%
4Arizona Diamondbacks63-51+4.1%
5Pittsburgh Pirates63-52+2.6%
6Milwaukee Brewers61-52+2.5%
7Chicago White Sox60-52+0.6%
8Washington Nationals61-54-0.1%
9Colorado Rockies61-53-0.7%
10Tampa Bay Rays60-53-1.0%
11Detroit Tigers59-54-1.2%
12Houston Astros58-57-3.1%
13Baltimore Orioles58-55-3.6%
14Boston Red Sox57-55-4.4%
15St. Louis Cardinals57-57-5.3%
16Cleveland Guardians56-58-8.4%
17San Diego Padres55-59-8.6%
18Texas Rangers55-59-9.9%
19Miami Marlins53-61-11.0%
20Philadelphia Phillies53-61-12.2%
21New York Yankees50-64-16.8%
22Cincinnati Reds50-62-17.2%
23San Francisco Giants50-64-18.3%
24Kansas City Royals49-65-19.6%
25Seattle Mariners49-65-19.8%
26Toronto Blue Jays48-66-20.9%
27Los Angeles Dodgers47-67-22.6%
28Athletics47-66-22.7%
29Los Angeles Angels46-67-23.3%
30New York Mets45-69-28.1%

Best Team-Total Under Teams

RankTeamUnder Record (O-U)ROI
1New York Mets45-69+15.3%
2Los Angeles Angels46-67+11.2%
3Los Angeles Dodgers47-67+10.2%
4Toronto Blue Jays48-66+10.1%
5Seattle Mariners49-65+8.4%
6Athletics47-66+8.4%
7Kansas City Royals49-65+7.3%
8San Francisco Giants50-64+7.3%
9Cincinnati Reds50-62+5.1%
10New York Yankees50-64+4.7%
11Miami Marlins53-61+1.9%
12Philadelphia Phillies53-61+0.6%
13Texas Rangers55-59-1.8%
14San Diego Padres55-59-3.4%
15Cleveland Guardians56-58-4.1%
16St. Louis Cardinals57-57-6.2%
17Boston Red Sox57-55-7.6%
18Houston Astros58-57-7.9%
19Baltimore Orioles58-55-8.2%
20Detroit Tigers59-54-10.2%
21Washington Nationals61-54-12.0%
22Tampa Bay Rays60-53-12.2%
23Chicago White Sox60-52-12.2%
24Colorado Rockies61-53-12.2%
25Milwaukee Brewers61-52-13.7%
26Arizona Diamondbacks63-51-15.5%
27Pittsburgh Pirates63-52-16.3%
28Atlanta Braves64-49-18.4%
29Minnesota Twins65-49-18.8%
30Chicago Cubs65-49-20.1%

First-5 markets settle after five innings, isolating the starting pitchers and removing bullpen and late-inning noise. Washington has been the standout at 73-42, with Tampa Bay and Atlanta close behind.

RankTeamATS RecordUnitsROI
1Washington Nationals73-42+25.80u+18.9%
2Tampa Bay Rays65-48+10.60u+7.9%
3Atlanta Braves63-50+8.50u+6.4%
4Detroit Tigers63-49+7.85u+5.8%
5Pittsburgh Pirates64-51+6.50u+4.9%
6Los Angeles Angels63-50+5.80u+4.3%
7St. Louis Cardinals64-50+3.95u+2.8%
8Cincinnati Reds61-51+1.30u+1.0%
9Cleveland Guardians59-55-1.60u-1.2%
10Chicago White Sox59-53-2.25u-1.7%
11Colorado Rockies58-55-3.20u-2.4%
12San Diego Padres60-54-4.05u-3.0%
13Miami Marlins59-55-5.20u-3.8%
14Milwaukee Brewers56-56-5.30u-4.0%
15Minnesota Twins57-57-8.35u-6.1%
16Los Angeles Dodgers57-57-9.85u-7.2%
17New York Yankees55-59-12.25u-9.1%
18Philadelphia Phillies53-61-15.10u-11.3%
19Arizona Diamondbacks53-60-15.60u-11.6%
20Boston Red Sox52-60-15.65u-11.9%
21Chicago Cubs52-62-17.75u-13.3%
22Athletics52-61-17.60u-13.3%
23Kansas City Royals53-61-18.75u-13.5%
24San Francisco Giants54-60-19.10u-13.6%
25Baltimore Orioles51-62-18.90u-14.3%
26Texas Rangers51-63-21.15u-15.6%
27Houston Astros51-64-22.70u-16.4%
28Seattle Mariners48-66-25.55u-19.6%
29New York Mets48-66-26.85u-20.0%
30Toronto Blue Jays49-65-27.55u-20.2%

The first-5 total tracks only the runs scored through five innings. Texas, Houston, and the Angels lead the Over side, while Toronto and Cleveland flip to strong Under numbers.

Best First-5 Over Teams

RankTeamOver Record (O-U)ROI
1Texas Rangers66-44+12.1%
2Houston Astros64-43+10.5%
3Los Angeles Angels63-46+8.4%
4Minnesota Twins63-46+7.7%
5Washington Nationals62-47+5.9%
6Atlanta Braves60-48+3.6%
7Chicago Cubs61-52+1.3%
8Chicago White Sox57-51-1.4%
9Milwaukee Brewers56-51-2.3%
10Baltimore Orioles54-50-3.0%
11Colorado Rockies57-53-3.2%
12Detroit Tigers56-53-3.2%
13New York Mets58-55-3.8%
14Philadelphia Phillies57-54-3.8%
15Pittsburgh Pirates58-55-3.9%
16Arizona Diamondbacks55-52-4.3%
17Miami Marlins56-54-4.3%
18Boston Red Sox54-53-5.4%
19Athletics54-55-6.4%
20San Francisco Giants54-55-7.3%
21Cincinnati Reds52-56-9.2%
22Tampa Bay Rays52-57-10.2%
23Los Angeles Dodgers53-59-11.6%
24Seattle Mariners49-57-13.0%
25Kansas City Royals51-61-13.8%
26New York Yankees51-60-13.9%
27St. Louis Cardinals46-63-20.7%
28Cleveland Guardians43-61-20.8%
29San Diego Padres45-64-22.8%
30Toronto Blue Jays43-67-26.5%

Best First-5 Under Teams

RankTeamUnder Record (O-U)ROI
1Toronto Blue Jays43-67+14.2%
2Cleveland Guardians43-61+9.7%
3San Diego Padres45-64+9.7%
4St. Louis Cardinals46-63+8.1%
5Kansas City Royals51-61+2.6%
6Seattle Mariners49-57+1.6%
7New York Yankees51-60+0.5%
8Los Angeles Dodgers53-59-1.0%
9Tampa Bay Rays52-57-1.9%
10Cincinnati Reds52-56-2.8%
11San Francisco Giants54-55-4.0%
12Athletics54-55-5.1%
13Boston Red Sox54-53-7.7%
14Arizona Diamondbacks55-52-8.0%
15Miami Marlins56-54-8.0%
16Baltimore Orioles54-50-8.2%
17Colorado Rockies57-53-8.8%
18New York Mets58-55-8.8%
19Pittsburgh Pirates58-55-9.1%
20Detroit Tigers56-53-9.1%
21Philadelphia Phillies57-54-9.5%
22Milwaukee Brewers56-51-9.7%
23Chicago White Sox57-51-9.9%
24Chicago Cubs61-52-14.4%
25Atlanta Braves60-48-15.8%
26Washington Nationals62-47-18.2%
27Los Angeles Angels63-46-19.4%
28Minnesota Twins63-46-19.5%
29Houston Astros64-43-22.1%
30Texas Rangers66-44-24.5%

Four teams have lost money across the board and belong on the other side of your plays: the Philadelphia Phillies (run line minus 22.1 percent), the New York Mets (moneyline minus 23.3 percent, first-5 run line minus 20.0 percent), the Athletics (moneyline minus 19.2 percent, run line minus 14.8 percent), and the Los Angeles Angels (moneyline minus 17.6 percent). Note that Philadelphia is a run-line fade but a top-three full-game Under, so those two angles pair rather than conflict.

Methodology

Every market treats each qualifying game as a flat 1-unit wager settled at the closing line. A win is a cover, a straight-up win, or an Over or Under, depending on the market. Units is the cumulative profit or loss; ROI is units divided by total bets, shown as a percentage. Home and away splits apply the same method to that subset of games. Flat staking keeps all 30 teams on equal footing so a handful of heavy favorites or longshots cannot distort the rankings.

For more MLB picks and predictions, visit MLB picks and predictions.

Frequently Asked Questions

Which MLB team has the best run line trend in 2026?

The Tampa Bay Rays lead the league against the run line at 63-49, returning 16.6 percent on flat 1-unit stakes. The Milwaukee Brewers are second at 60-53 (plus 11.2 percent), with Atlanta third, making all three reliable cover teams this season.

Which teams should bettors fade right now?

The Philadelphia Phillies are the worst run-line team in baseball at 45-68 (minus 22.1 percent), and the New York Mets have been the biggest moneyline drain at 48-66 (minus 23.3 percent). The Athletics are negative across the run line and moneyline, so there is no split that rescues them.

What is the difference between the run line and the moneyline?

The moneyline is a straight-up bet on who wins. The run line applies a 1.5-run spread — the favorite must win by two or more, or the underdog must lose by one or win outright. Because so many MLB games are decided by a single run, run-line results often diverge sharply from moneyline records.

Which teams are the strongest Over plays?

The Chicago White Sox top the full-game Over board at 63-47 (plus 9.5 percent), with the Pittsburgh Pirates and Minnesota Twins close behind. Minnesota and the Chicago Cubs lead the team-total Overs, so those lineups have cleared the number from a different angle.

Which teams are the best Under plays?

The St. Louis Cardinals lead full-game Unders at 45-64 (plus 11.4 percent), with Philadelphia and Milwaukee close behind. On team totals, the New York Mets are the strongest Under side at plus 15.3 percent, followed by the Los Angeles Angels.

Yes. The first-5 markets isolate the starting pitchers and remove bullpen and late-inning scoring. Washington leads the F5 run line at 73-42, while Toronto and Cleveland flip to strong F5 Under sides even though their full-game numbers look different.

These tables reflect the 2026 season through August 5 and are refreshed as new results come in. Records and ROI move daily during the season, so check back before locking in picks and predictions.

How is ROI calculated?

Every wager is treated as a flat 1-unit stake at the closing line. Units is the running profit or loss across all of a team's games; ROI is that unit total divided by the number of bets, expressed as a percentage. A positive ROI means backing that side blindly all season would have turned a profit.

Season-long ROI tables are a starting point, not a finished play. A team covering the run line at a strong clip tells you the market has been slow to adjust to how it wins games — but the matchup, the starting pitcher, and the closing number still decide each night. We treat these rankings as a filter: they surface which sides the market has mispriced across a full season, and from there the daily picks and predictions come down to the specific game in front of us.

21+. Please play responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER. Odds and records reflect the 2026 MLB season through August 5, 2026 and are subject to change.

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