Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres Picks and Prediction for Friday September 25 2026

The Arizona Diamondbacks visit the San Diego Padres at Petco Park in San Diego, California, on Friday, September 25, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40 PM ET with coverage on MLB.TV. Arizona enters at 84-74 overall and 39-38 on the road, while San Diego is 88-70 overall and an impressive 49-29 at home. The Padres sit second in the NL West, nine games behind Los Angeles, while Arizona is third at 13 games back. The Diamondbacks arrive as one of the hotter teams in the matchup with four consecutive victories, while San Diego has won four of its last five. The season series is tied 5-5, making Friday's opener the deciding stretch of what has been a competitive season matchup. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks for more MLB predictions throughout the season.

Starting Pitchers

Arizona is scheduled to start Zac Gallen, who enters at 3-9 with a 6.12 ERA and 1.56 WHIP through 104.1 innings. He has allowed 128 hits and 19 home runs while recording 64 strikeouts against 35 walks. San Diego counters with Casey Mize, who is 6-9 with a 3.96 ERA and 1.19 WHIP through 127.1 innings. He has surrendered 116 hits and 15 home runs while striking out 109 and walking 36. The statistical advantage belongs to Mize. His ERA is more than two runs lower, his WHIP is substantially better, and he has produced considerably more strikeouts despite a similar walk total. Gallen's 1.56 WHIP is particularly concerning against a San Diego team playing its final regular-season series at home.

Arizona Brings a Four-Game Winning Streak to San Diego

Arizona enters Friday at 84-74 overall and 39-38 away from home. The Diamondbacks have won four straight games, including consecutive road victories over Colorado by scores of 5-3 and 7-2. Before that, Arizona took two straight from the Yankees, 8-4 and 5-3, after losing the opener of that series 9-2. The Diamondbacks are therefore 4-1 over their last five games, scoring 27 runs while allowing 21. More importantly, they have scored at least five runs in each game during their current winning streak.

The Diamondbacks are batting .244 with 705 runs, 1,297 hits and 159 home runs this season. They own a .316 on-base percentage and .399 slugging percentage. Arizona's pitching staff has produced a 4.08 ERA and 1.27 WHIP with 1,110 strikeouts against 470 walks while allowing opponents to bat .247. The Diamondbacks have actually scored more runs than San Diego this season despite hitting 21 fewer home runs, and their overall offensive numbers are extremely close to those of the Padres.

Arizona's biggest concern is the starting-pitching matchup. The Diamondbacks have the slightly better full-season ERA and WHIP, but Friday's individual matchup doesn't reflect that team-level advantage. Their scheduled starter enters with a 6.12 ERA and 1.56 WHIP and has surrendered 128 hits in just 104.1 innings. Arizona's offense is hot enough to keep the Diamondbacks competitive, but it may need to produce another strong scoring performance if the early innings become problematic.

San Diego Has Been Difficult to Beat at Petco Park

San Diego enters at 88-70 overall and has been particularly effective at Petco Park, where the Padres are 49-29. They have also won four of their last five games. San Diego most recently defeated Los Angeles 5-1 after suffering a 7-0 loss the previous night. Before that, the Padres swept three games from Miami by scores of 8-2, 7-6 and 7-3. San Diego has scored 27 runs over its last five games while allowing 19.

The Padres are batting .243 with 695 runs, 1,274 hits and 180 home runs. San Diego owns a .318 on-base percentage and .398 slugging percentage. Its pitching staff carries a 3.94 ERA and 1.29 WHIP with 1,283 strikeouts against 537 walks while limiting opponents to a .242 batting average. There is remarkably little separating these clubs statistically. Arizona holds slight advantages in batting average, runs, hits, slugging percentage and WHIP, while San Diego owns advantages in home runs, on-base percentage, ERA, strikeouts and opponent batting average.

The difference may come down to San Diego's home-field performance and the starting-pitching matchup. The Padres have won nearly 63% of their games at Petco Park, while Arizona is only one game above .500 on the road. San Diego's starter also enters with a 3.96 ERA and 1.19 WHIP compared with Arizona's 6.12 ERA and 1.56 WHIP. With the season series tied 5-5 and both clubs playing well, that starting-pitching gap becomes one of the most important differences in an otherwise closely matched game.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres Picks and Prediction

Pick: San Diego Padres Moneyline

This is a competitive matchup between two teams playing good baseball, but San Diego gets the moneyline selection. Arizona's four-game winning streak deserves respect, and the Diamondbacks actually own small advantages in several season-long statistical categories. The difference is Friday's pitching matchup combined with San Diego's 49-29 home record. The Padres' scheduled starter carries a 3.96 ERA and 1.19 WHIP compared with a 6.12 ERA and 1.56 WHIP for Arizona's starter. San Diego has also won four of its last five and has scored 27 runs during that stretch. With the season series tied 5-5, the Padres' starting-pitching advantage and strong home performance provide the separation needed to back San Diego.

Pick: Over 8.0 or Lower

The over is attractive if the market opens at 8.0 or lower. Arizona has scored at least five runs in four consecutive games and has generated 27 runs across its last five contests. San Diego has also scored 27 over its last five, meaning these offenses have combined for 54 runs during that span. The biggest factor is Arizona's starting pitching situation, with a 6.12 ERA and 1.56 WHIP entering a matchup against a San Diego offense that has scored seven or more runs in three of its last five. Arizona's offense is playing well enough to contribute against a solid but not dominant opposing starter. The season series has also produced several high-scoring games, including finals of 12-7, 10-4, 9-4 and 10-4. There is less value if the market pushes the number significantly higher, but Over 8.0 or lower is the preferred total position.

Final Picks: San Diego Padres Moneyline and Over 8.0 or Lower

This preview was completed on Thursday, September 24, 2026. Starting pitchers, betting lines and other game information are subject to change before the game begins.