Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres Picks and Prediction for Thursday, July 9, 2026
Use Code SSWC The Arizona Diamondbacks visit the San Diego Padres on Thursday at 7:40 PM ET at Petco Park in San Diego, California. Arizona is 45-46 and sits fourth in the NL West, while San Diego is also 45-46 and is fifth in the division. The clubs have split the first two games of this series, with Arizona earning an 8-0 victory before San Diego answered with a 4-1 win on Tuesday. Both teams remain below .500 entering the series finale and are looking to gain ground in the National League Wild Card race. Cash a winning ticket with our free MLB picks.
Arizona Diamondbacks Looking to Finish the Series Strong
Arizona has been average offensively throughout the season, batting .236 while scoring 386 runs on 714 hits. The Diamondbacks have added 82 home runs with a .307 on-base percentage and a .383 slugging percentage. Ketel Marte continues to lead the offense, batting .267 with 17 home runs, 54 RBI, and 93 hits. Corbin Carroll has supplied a .263 batting average with 13 home runs, while Gabriel Moreno has been one of the club's most consistent hitters with a .290 average. Geraldo Perdomo has reached base at a solid rate, and Nolan Arenado continues to provide veteran production in the middle of the lineup.
The Diamondbacks have received slightly better production from their pitching staff than their overall record suggests. Arizona owns a 4.24 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP while limiting opponents to a .251 batting average. The staff has kept the club competitive in many close games, although inconsistency from the rotation has made sustained winning streaks difficult.
Injuries: Michael Soroka, Blake Walston, Jordan Lawlar, A.J. Puk, Justin Martinez.
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San Diego Padres Trying to Build Momentum at Home
San Diego has struggled to produce offense consistently this season, ranking last in Major League Baseball with a .224 team batting average. The Padres have scored 352 runs while collecting 668 hits, 95 home runs, a .300 on-base percentage, and a .371 slugging percentage. Fernando Tatis Jr. continues to lead the lineup with a .281 batting average and 99 hits, while Manny Machado has provided the power with 18 home runs and 51 RBI. Gavin Sheets has added 14 home runs, Ty France has contributed 10 long balls
San Diego has relied more on its pitching staff than its offense. The Padres enter with a 4.26 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP while holding opponents to a .248 batting average. Although the rotation has been inconsistent at times, San Diego has received timely pitching during recent victories.
Injuries: Matt Waldron, Freddy Fermin, Randy Vasquez, David Morgan, Jeremiah Estrada.
Pitching Matchup
Arizona Diamondbacks – Merrill Kelly
Kelly is 6-8 with a 5.71 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP across 86.2 innings this season. He has allowed 100 hits, struck out 53 batters, and walked 35 while surrendering 19 home runs. Kelly has struggled to limit hard contact this year and will need a sharper performance against a division rival.
San Diego Padres – Griffin Canning
Canning enters with a 1-6 record, a 6.71 ERA, and a 1.61 WHIP over 51.0 innings. He has allowed 52 hits while striking out 50 batters and walking 30. Although the numbers have been disappointing, Canning will try to take advantage of an Arizona lineup that has been inconsistent away from home.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres Game Pick
- Arizona Diamondbacks
Neither starter has pitched well this season, but Arizona owns the more productive offense and has more consistent hitters throughout the lineup. Marte and Carroll give the Diamondbacks the edge offensively, and Kelly has more experience working through difficult outings than Canning. In what projects to be a close matchup, Arizona has the slight advantage.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres Over/Under Pick
- Over
Both starting pitchers enter with ERAs above 5.70, and each has struggled to keep runners off base throughout the season. Kelly and Canning have combined to allow 152 hits and 27 home runs in fewer than 140 innings, creating an opportunity for both offenses to generate scoring chances. With neither rotation inspiring much confidence, the over is the play.
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