Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres Prediction and Picks - Friday, September 26, 2025
Use Code SSWC Friday serves up an all-NL West matchup as Arizona seeks a win that would keep its postseason hopes alive. Get a closer look at this matchup with our Diamondbacks vs. Padres prediction and picks. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm PT (9:40pm ET) at Petco Park, home of the Padres.
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D'Backs running out of time
The Diamondbacks (80-79) suffered a huge blow to their playoff chances with back-to-back losses to the Dodgers this week, the last of which was an 8-0 blowout on Thursday in which Arizona mustered just five hits. The team trails the Mets by 2.0 games in the last Wild Card spot with just three games remaining: they will likely need a sweep against the Padres and some luck elsewhere in order to return to the postseason.
Zac Gallen starts for Arizona on Friday. The right-hander has struggled this year compared to previous seasons, going 13-14 with a 4.70 ERA off 32 starts (2024: 14-6, 3.65 ERA). There have been recent signs that he has turned the corner, though, as he has put up a 2.68 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in his last seven outings while averaging more than 6.0 innings per start. Last time out Gallen struck out nine Phillies batters while giving up three runs over 7.0 innings to take the W. He will be a free agent at the end of the 2025 season.
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Padres gear up for playoff tilt
The San Diego Padres (87-72) are back in the playoffs for the third time in the last four years. Going into this final regular season series, San Diego is guaranteed at least the second NL Wild Card spot and an opening playoff matchup against the Cubs. The NL West title is out of reach after the Dodgers' crushing win over Arizona Thursday, but the Padres could still take WC1 and home advantage from the Cubs, who sit 2.0 games ahead with three left on the schedule.
San Diego has not confirmed who will be starting in Friday's series opener. With the Wild Card round beginning in just four days the Padres' priority will be lining up its frontline starters for postseason duties, meaning possible call-ups from the minors to cover innings this weekend. The Padres staff has numbered amongst the best in MLB this year, recording a 3.64 collective ERA that ranks third in pro baseball across the season. That includes the sport's premier bullpen, which has put up a league-best 3.04 ERA and WHIP of 1.15.
Diamondbacks vs. Padres pick
Spread Pick for Diamondbacks vs. Padres
- Diamondbacks ML (4 units)
The Padres already have one eye on the Wild Card round and that should play into Arizona's favor as it chases a vital win, potentially missing San Diego's top pitchers. Gallen has pitched beautifully against San Diego in his most recent appearances and has gone 4-0 with a 1.42 ERA off his last five starts. Back in July, he gave up a single unearned run over 6.0 innings while racking up nine K's. Arizona is 26-23 this year, playing against NL West rivals.
Take the Diamondbacks on the moneyline.
Over/under Pick for Diamondbacks vs. Padres
- Under (5 units)
Despite clinching a postseason berth with relative ease, this has been a rough year for the Padres at the plate. San Diego has a team OPS of .708, the lowest of any of the current playoff contenders with the exception of the Reds; that drops to .705 at home, ranking 21st in MLB. That poor hitting leads me to back the under for this one. The Padres are 2-5 on the over in their last seven games. They have gone 32-43-3 on the over at home this year. Four of the last six games between these two teams have finished hitting the under.
Take the under.
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