Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres Prediction and Picks - Sunday, September 28, 2025
Use Code SSWC Arizona and San Diego close out their MLB regular season campaigns on Sunday with both teams' playoff fates now decided. The Padres are heading to the Wild Card while the D'Backs miss out. Get a closer look at this matchup with our Diamondbacks vs. Padres prediction and picks. First pitch is scheduled for 12:10pm PT (3:40pm ET) at Petco Park, home of the Padres.
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Note: This article was published before the start of Arizona vs. San Diego on September 27.
D'Backs running out of time
The Diamondbacks (80-80) pushed hard for a return to the postseason but ultimately fell short. Friday's 7-4 defeat to the Padres at PetCo, followed by the Mets' win over Miami on Saturday, ended Arizona's chances of pushing into the third NL Wild Card spot. The D'Backs paid the price for a poor first half in 2025, having sat nine games below .500 at the end of July. A 29-22 run in August and September was not enough to reverse that start, and they miss out on the playoffs for a second straight year following their trip to the World Series in 2023.
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Brandon Pfaadt will pick up the start for this season's finale. The right-hander has gone 13-8 with a 5.00 ERA in 2025, striking out 142 batters in 172.2 innings. Pfaadt had an outing to remember in mid-September as he threw nine scoreless, one-hit innings against San Francisco. But Arizona failed to score a single run of its own and went down in extra innings, leaving the starter with a no-decision.
Padres gear up for playoff tilt
The San Diego Padres (88-72) took the initiative on Friday with a monster shot from Fernando Tatis Jr. The right fielder's 24th home run of the season was a grand slam off Zack Gallen, which sent San Diego on the way to a 7-4 win in the series opener. Going into Saturday's matchup, the Padres already know their playoff destiny: they will finish second in the NL Wild Card standings and take on the Chicago Cubs, with all three games in that series scheduled to be played at Wrigley Field between September 30 and October 2.
San Diego has not confirmed who will be starting in Sunday's game. With the Wild Card round beginning in just two days, the Padres will avoid using any of their frontline starters so that they will arrive fresh to face the Cubs. San Diego's pitching has been excellent in 2025, recording a 3.64 team ERA that ranks third in MLB.
Diamondbacks vs. Padres pick
Spread Pick for Diamondbacks vs. Padres
- Diamondbacks ML (4 units)
It is often the case that when the pressure is lifted, performances start to improve. Arizona could well benefit from that now that its playoff hopes are done and go forward to record a win against San Diego. The D'Backs will be aided by the Padres likely turning to their second-string pitchers as their best arms are rested for the Wild Card. They also have performed well against NL West rivals this year with a 26-24 W/L record. Pfaadt has won all of his last three starts against San Diego.
Take the Diamondbacks on the moneyline.
Over/under Pick for Diamondbacks vs. Padres
- Under (5 units)
Pfaadt enjoys pitching against San Diego and will be confident of keeping the runs down, particularly given the chance that the Padres rest some of the key pieces of their lineup. The righty has a 2.31 ERA over his last four starts against San Diego while giving up two runs or fewer in all of those outings. On the other side of the ball, Arizona has scored four runs or fewer in six of its last eight games. The Padres are 33-43-3 on the over playing at home this year.
Take the under.
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