Athletics vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Picks and Prediction for Sunday, September 21, 2025
In our Athletics vs. Pirates prediction, the Athletics are fourth in the AL West with a 73-81 record so far. They are having left-hander Jeffrey Springs get the start as he is coming off a no-decision against the Boston Red Sox, where he pitched four innings and allowed one unearned run on five hits with three walks and three strikeouts.
The Pittsburgh Pirates are strugglnig as they are sitting in fifth place in the NL Central with a 65-89 record entering this game. Rookie right-hander Mike Burrows takes the ball and is coming off a no-decision against the Washington Nationals where he allowed three runs on five hits with one walk and six strikeouts in 4.1 innings of work.
From splits to bullpens, MLB predictions for Athletics vs. Pittsburgh Pirates highlight the edge.
Athletics Ready to Slug
The Athletics have been an outstanding offensive team, ranking seventh in the sport with a .752 team OPS, while averaging 4.57 runs per game. The Athletics have been patient at the plate as they are 17th in the majors with 483 combined walks. First baseman Nick Kurtz has been stepping up, posting a .291/.385/.615 slash line with 33 home runs, 81 RBI, 83 runs scored, and two steals while being caught once.
Jeffrey Springs has been struggling, according to his Baseball Savant page, as he is in the 26th percentile in strikeout percentage, 31st percentile in xBA, 32nd percentile in xERA, and 49th percentile in chase percentage. He has a five-pitch arsenal (fastball, changeup, slider, sweeper, cutter) and his fastball has been getting hit the most as hitters have a .270 batting average and .468 slugging percentage with nine home runs and 47 strikeouts against it. Springs has not faced the Athletics since 2023 as a member of the Tampa Bay Rays in a win as he threw seven shutout innings with three hits, three walks, and seven strikeouts.
Injury Report for Athletics
- Second baseman Zack Gelof: Shoulder (OUT)
- Pitcher Sean Newcomb: Elbow (OUT)
- Pitcher Ben Bowden: Lat (OUT)
- Pitcher Joey Estes: Back (OUT)
- Pitcher Jacob Lopez: Flexor (OUT)
- Pitcher Jack Perkins: Shoulder (OUT)
- Pitcher Austin Wynns: Abdomen (OUT)
- Pitcher Jose Leclerc: Shoulder (OUT)
- Center fielder Denzel Clarke: Abductor (OUT)
- Pitcher Grant Holman: Shoulder (OUT)
- Pitcher Gunnar Hoglund: Hip (OUT)
- Pitcher Luis Medina: Elbow (OUT)
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Pirates Looking Towards 2026
The Pittsburgh Pirates are doing a terrible job at the plate as they are 30th in the bigs with a .651 team OPS while scoring 3.55 runs per game. The team has been unable to hit for much power as they are last by far with just 110 total homers. Right fielder Bryan Reynolds has been hitting at a good level as he has a .718 OPS with 16 home runs, 73 RBI, 63 runs scored, and three steals while being caught two times.
Mike Burrows is pitching poorly this season when diving into his Baseball Savant page, as he is in the 12th percentile in barrel percentage, 30th percentile in hard hit percentage, 33rd percentile in chase percentage, and 35th percentile in xERA. He has five different pitches (fastball, changeup, slider, curveball, sinker) and his changeup has been his best pitch as hitters have a .137 batting average and .216 slugging percentage with two home runs and 49 strikeouts. Burrows is facing the Athletics for the first time in his career, so this will be a good test.
Injury Report for Pittsburgh
- Second baseman Ronny Simon: Shoulder (OUT)
- First baseman Endy Rodriguez: Elbow (OUT)
- First baseman Enmanuel Valdez: Shoulder (OUT)
- Pitcher Jared Jones: Elbow (OUT)
Athletics vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Pick
Spread Pick for Athletics vs. Pirates
- Athletics ML (5 units)
The road/home splits for these pitchers are showing a bit of a divide as Jeffrey Springs is 5-6 with a 3.45 ERA and a .223 batting average against in 88.2 innings (17 road games, 16 starts) while Mike Burrows is 2-3 with a 4.03 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in 51.1 innings (11 home games, 10 starts) up to this point. Over the last seven days, these offenses are showing a gap as the Athletics are posting a .606 team OPS while the Pirates are hitting with a .570 team OPS. The Athletics were able to win six of the last seven games against the Pirates, so go with the Athletics to win again here.
Over/Under Pick for Athletics vs. Pirates
- UNDER (4 units)
When looking at the previous 15 games for these pitchers, they are limiting the amount of runs allowed as Jeffrey Springs is 4-6 with a 4.10 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in 79.0 innings (15 starts) while Mike Burrows is 1-2 with a 3.77 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in 62.0 innings (12 starts) so far. The ability to hit with runners in scoring position shows there is struggling offenses. The Athletics are 11th with a .766 team OPS with runners in scoring position while the Pirates are last with a .658 team OPS in those chances. All in all, go with the UNDER to hit in this game.
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