Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore Orioles Picks and Prediction for July 24, 2026

The Atlanta Braves visit the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards in Baltimore, Maryland, on July 24, 2026. The game is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. and will be televised on MLB.TV. ESPN Analytics gives Baltimore a 52.8% chance of winning, while Atlanta has a 47.2% chance. The listed game-time temperature is 79 degrees. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks before making your wagers on Friday’s games.

Starting Pitchers

Grant Holmes will start for Atlanta against Baltimore left-hander Trevor Rogers. Holmes is 6-4 with a 3.70 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP across 92.1 innings. He has allowed 83 hits and 15 home runs while recording 78 strikeouts and 41 walks. Rogers is 6-7 with a 4.28 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP through 96.2 innings. He has surrendered 94 hits and 10 home runs while collecting 77 strikeouts and issuing 32 walks. Holmes has the lower ERA and has allowed fewer hits, while Rogers owns the slightly lower WHIP and has surrendered five fewer home runs.

Atlanta Brings a Balanced Statistical Profile to Baltimore

Atlanta has won three of its last five games and enters this matchup following a 7-6 victory. That win came after an 8-3 loss, a 3-2 victory, an 8-5 win, and a 7-6 defeat. The team scored at least six runs in three of those five contests, while four games during the stretch were decided by three runs or fewer. Two of the five were decided by a single run.

The Atlanta offense owns a .250 batting average, a .317 on-base percentage, and a .417 slugging percentage. The team has accumulated 859 hits, scored 502 runs, and hit 132 home runs. Compared with Baltimore, Atlanta holds the advantage in batting average, hits, runs, home runs, and slugging percentage. Baltimore’s only offensive advantage among the supplied team statistics is its slightly higher on-base percentage.

Atlanta’s pitching staff has recorded a 3.67 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP while holding opposing hitters to a .231 batting average. The staff has collected 853 strikeouts and issued 338 walks. Those figures give Atlanta the advantage over Baltimore in team ERA, WHIP, opponent batting average, strikeouts, and walks. The combination of stronger offensive production and better overall pitching statistics gives Atlanta a credible chance to overcome Baltimore’s narrow edge in the matchup predictor.

Baltimore Tries to Make Its Recent Run Prevention Count

Baltimore has won three of its last five games. The Orioles most recently earned a 5-1 victory after losing 6-3 earlier in the day. Those two results followed a 6-5 defeat, a 5-2 victory, and a 4-2 win in 11 innings. Baltimore held its opponent to two runs or fewer in three of those five contests, including each of its three victories.

The Baltimore offense enters with a .239 batting average, a .322 on-base percentage, and a .398 slugging percentage. The Orioles have recorded 818 hits, scored 472 runs, and hit 121 home runs. Although Baltimore trails Atlanta in most of the supplied offensive categories, its .322 on-base percentage is slightly better than Atlanta’s .317 mark. The Orioles will need to turn that ability to reach base into enough runs against an Atlanta staff that has posted strong overall numbers.

Baltimore’s pitching staff owns a 4.20 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and a .251 opponent batting average. The Orioles have recorded 812 strikeouts while allowing 347 walks. Those numbers do not match Atlanta’s season-long pitching profile, but Baltimore’s recent results show that it has limited opponents successfully in several games. ESPN Analytics gives the Orioles a 52.8% chance to win, making the home team the narrow favorite according to the supplied matchup projection.

Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore Orioles Picks and Prediction

Pick: Atlanta Braves Moneyline

Atlanta is the moneyline selection despite Baltimore receiving the slight advantage from ESPN Analytics. The Braves hold the stronger supplied statistics in batting average, hits, runs, home runs, slugging percentage, team ERA, WHIP, opponent batting average, strikeouts, and walks. Atlanta has also won three of its last five games and scored seven runs in its latest victory. With no moneyline odds provided, the Braves are the straight-up pick based on their broader statistical advantages.

Pick: Atlanta Braves +1.5

Take Atlanta on the run line if it is set at +1.5. Four of Atlanta’s last five games were decided by three runs or fewer, including two one-run decisions. Baltimore has also played three games decided by two runs or fewer during its latest five-game stretch. ESPN Analytics separates the teams by only 5.6 percentage points, supporting the possibility of a competitive matchup. The additional 1.5 runs make Atlanta the preferred run-line selection.

Pick: Under 8.5

Take the under if the total is set at 8.5. Atlanta enters with a 3.67 team ERA and a 1.24 WHIP, while its scheduled starter has a 3.70 ERA. Baltimore held opponents to two runs or fewer in three of its last five games, and each of those performances resulted in a victory. Although both teams have produced higher-scoring results recently, the supplied pitching statistics and Baltimore’s recent run prevention make the under the preferred total at 8.5.