Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins Picks and Prediction for Friday September 25 2026

The Atlanta Braves visit the Miami Marlins at loanDepot park in Miami, Florida, on Friday, September 25, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 PM ET with coverage on MLB.TV. Atlanta enters at 93-65 overall and 41-37 on the road, while Miami is 78-80 overall and an impressive 45-33 at home. The Braves lead the NL East by six games and have won four of their last five, including a 3-2 extra-inning victory over Cincinnati on Wednesday. Miami has won two straight after taking consecutive games from Chicago, but the Marlins remain 15 games behind Atlanta in the division. The Braves have controlled this season series, winning eight of the first 10 meetings. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks for more MLB predictions throughout the season.

Starting Pitchers

Atlanta is scheduled to start Grant Holmes, who enters at 10-5 with a 3.47 ERA and 1.30 WHIP through 147.2 innings. He has allowed 133 hits and 21 home runs while recording 114 strikeouts against 59 walks. Miami counters with Eury Perez, who is 7-11 with a 4.14 ERA and 1.27 WHIP through 150 innings. He has surrendered only 123 hits while striking out 162, walking 67 and allowing 20 home runs. The matchup is more competitive than the win-loss records suggest. Holmes owns the superior ERA and has issued fewer walks, while Perez has the slightly better WHIP, significantly more strikeouts and has allowed 10 fewer hits despite working slightly more innings. Atlanta nevertheless has the more reliable run-prevention profile behind its starter, which could become important once the game moves beyond the opening innings.

Atlanta Brings Its Division-Leading Form to Miami

Atlanta enters the weekend at 93-65 and in control of the NL East. The Braves have won four of their last five, with the only loss coming in a 4-0 shutout against Cincinnati. They responded by winning 3-2 in 10 innings Wednesday after sweeping three games in Houston by scores of 6-2, 6-3 and 4-2. Atlanta has scored 19 runs while allowing only 13 across those five games, and the Braves have surrendered more than three runs only once during that stretch.

The Braves are batting .247 with 725 runs, 1,320 hits and 200 home runs this season. Atlanta owns a .311 on-base percentage and .411 slugging percentage, giving it considerably more home-run production and slightly more overall scoring than Miami. The pitching staff has been an even bigger strength. Atlanta carries a 3.60 ERA and 1.24 WHIP while holding opposing hitters to a .233 batting average. The Braves have issued 520 walks while recording 1,329 strikeouts.

Run prevention gives Atlanta its most important advantage Friday. The Braves have the lower team ERA, lower WHIP and lower opponent batting average, and that strength has been evident during their recent run. Atlanta has allowed only two or three runs in four of its last five games. Combine that pitching consistency with 200 home runs and the Braves have multiple ways to win even when the offense does not produce a big scoring night.

Miami's Home Record Makes the Marlins Dangerous

Miami enters the series at 78-80 and has an opportunity to finish the season at or above .500. The Marlins are particularly dangerous at loanDepot park, where they own a 45-33 record. Their overall recent form has been uneven, however. Miami is 2-3 over its last five after losing three consecutive games in San Diego before responding with an 8-2 win in 12 innings and a 3-2 victory at Chicago.

The Marlins are batting .249 with 703 runs, 1,316 hits and 163 home runs. Miami has a .327 on-base percentage and .400 slugging percentage. Those numbers make for an interesting comparison with Atlanta: Miami has the slightly better batting average and a considerably stronger OBP, but Atlanta has scored 22 more runs and hit 37 more home runs. Miami's pitching staff enters with a 4.11 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and .237 opponent batting average while producing 1,291 strikeouts against 549 walks.

Miami's ability to reach base and its excellent home record give the Marlins a legitimate chance to challenge Atlanta, but the season series is difficult to ignore. Atlanta has won eight of the first 10 meetings, including six straight since Miami's 12-0 victory in May. The Braves scored at least four runs in each of those six victories. Miami needs its starting pitching to keep this game close because trying to match Atlanta's power and pitching depth over nine innings is a much more difficult proposition.

Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins Picks and Prediction

Pick: Atlanta Braves Moneyline

Atlanta is the preferred side despite Miami's strong 45-33 home record. The Braves have won four of their last five, are 93-65 overall and have dominated the season series with an 8-2 record against Miami. The pitching numbers provide the strongest statistical case. Atlanta owns a 3.60 team ERA, 1.24 WHIP and .233 opponent batting average compared with Miami's 4.11 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and .237 opponent average. Holmes also brings the better ERA into the starting matchup at 3.47 compared with Perez at 4.14. Miami's OBP and home performance make this competitive, but Atlanta has been the more complete team and has consistently controlled this matchup throughout the season.

Pick: Under 8.5 or Higher

The starting pitchers make the under attractive if the market gives us 8.5 or better. Holmes enters with a 3.47 ERA, while Perez's 1.27 WHIP, 123 hits allowed and 162 strikeouts indicate that his 4.14 ERA does not tell the entire story. Atlanta has also been pitching exceptionally well recently, allowing just 13 runs over its last five games, while Miami's last game finished 3-2. The Braves possess enough power to threaten the total, but Miami has scored three runs or fewer in three of its last five games. Under 8.5 or higher provides enough room for Atlanta's offense to produce without requiring a complete shutdown from either pitching staff.

Final Picks: Atlanta Braves Moneyline and Under 8.5 or Higher

This preview was completed on Thursday, September 24, 2026. Starting pitchers, betting lines and other game information are subject to change before the game begins.