Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins Picks and Prediction for Sunday September 27 2026

The Atlanta Braves visit the Miami Marlins at loanDepot park in Miami, Florida, on Sunday, September 27, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 3:10 PM ET with coverage on MLB.TV. Atlanta enters at 93-67 overall and 41-38 on the road, while Miami is 79-81 overall and an impressive 46-33 at home. The Braves lead the NL East by six games over Philadelphia, while the Marlins sit third, 14 games behind Atlanta. Miami won Friday's series opener 3-0, handing the Braves their second consecutive loss. Saturday's game had not been completed when this preview was prepared and is excluded from the analysis. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks for more MLB predictions throughout the season.

Starting Pitchers

Atlanta is scheduled to start JR Ritchie, who enters at 1-4 with a 4.79 ERA and 1.46 WHIP through 67.2 innings. He has allowed 58 hits and 12 home runs while recording 66 strikeouts against 41 walks. Miami counters with Janson Junk, who is 6-9 with a 4.31 ERA and 1.31 WHIP through 119 innings. He has surrendered 124 hits and 14 home runs while striking out 84 and walking 32. Miami owns the starting-pitching advantage on the numbers supplied. Junk has the lower ERA and WHIP while issuing nine fewer walks despite throwing more than 51 additional innings. Ritchie's 41 walks in 67.2 innings are particularly concerning against a Miami offense that owns a solid .327 team on-base percentage.

Braves Look to Reignite Their Offense

Atlanta enters Sunday at 93-67 overall but has gone just 2-3 across its last five completed games. The Braves were shut out 3-0 in Friday's series opener after suffering a 7-6 loss against Cincinnati. Atlanta previously defeated Cincinnati 3-2 in ten innings after losing the preceding game 4-0. The Braves' other victory during this stretch was a 4-2 road win at Houston. Atlanta has scored only 13 runs over its last five games and has been shut out twice during that stretch.

The Braves are batting .247 with 731 runs, 1,333 hits and 201 home runs. They own a .310 on-base percentage and .409 slugging percentage. Atlanta's greatest strength has been its pitching staff, which has produced a 3.62 ERA and 1.24 WHIP with 1,337 strikeouts against 526 walks while limiting opponents to a .234 batting average.

Atlanta's power and pitching give the Braves a strong season-long profile, but their recent offensive inconsistency creates concern entering Sunday's matchup. They have hit 36 more home runs than Miami and scored 24 more runs, yet the Braves have produced two runs or fewer in three of their last five games. Atlanta's pitching staff should keep it competitive, but the scheduled starter's control issues could create scoring opportunities for a Miami lineup that has been effective at reaching base.

Marlins Continue to Play Well at Home

Miami enters Sunday at 79-81 overall and owns an excellent 46-33 home record. The Marlins have won three of their last four completed games after shutting out Atlanta 3-0 Friday. Miami previously lost 2-1 at Chicago after earning consecutive victories over the Cubs by scores of 3-2 and 8-2. The Marlins' other loss across their last five came 7-3 at San Diego.

Miami is batting .249 with 707 runs, 1,331 hits and 165 home runs. The Marlins have produced a .327 on-base percentage and .400 slugging percentage. Their pitching staff owns a 4.08 ERA and 1.28 WHIP with 1,304 strikeouts against 555 walks while allowing opponents to hit .235.

Miami's ability to reach base stands out in this matchup. The Marlins' .327 OBP is 17 points higher than Atlanta's .310, and that becomes especially relevant against a scheduled Braves starter who has walked 41 batters in 67.2 innings. Miami also has almost identical season hit production despite playing from behind Atlanta in the standings. The Braves possess the better overall pitching staff and considerably more power, but Miami's home performance and matchup-specific offensive profile give the Marlins a realistic opportunity to win the series finale.

Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins Picks and Prediction

Pick: Miami Marlins Moneyline

Miami gets the moneyline selection in Sunday's matchup. Atlanta is clearly the stronger team based on the full-season record and owns meaningful advantages in power and overall pitching, but this individual matchup favors the Marlins more than those records suggest. Miami is 46-33 at home and has won three of its last four completed games, while Atlanta has lost three of five and has been shut out twice during that stretch. The Marlins also have the more favorable starting-pitching numbers, with their scheduled starter carrying a 4.31 ERA and 1.31 WHIP compared with Atlanta's 4.79 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. Miami's .327 team OBP should also challenge a Braves starter who has struggled with walks. With Atlanta's offense currently inconsistent, Miami is the preferred side.

Pick: Under 8.5 or Higher

The under is the preferred total at 8.5 or higher. Atlanta's last five completed games have produced combined totals of three, 13, five, four and six runs, with four staying below 8.5. Miami has also been involved in several low-scoring games recently, including Friday's 3-0 victory and a 2-1 loss at Chicago. Atlanta's pitching staff remains excellent overall with a 3.62 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and .234 opponent batting average, while Miami has allowed only seven total runs across its last four completed games. The primary threat to the under is Atlanta's scheduled starter issuing too many free passes, but at 8.5 or better, the recent offensive trends and season-long Atlanta pitching numbers make the under the preferred position.

Final Picks: Miami Marlins Moneyline and Under 8.5 or Higher

This preview was completed on Saturday, September 26, 2026. Starting pitchers, betting lines and other game information are subject to change before the game begins.