Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Picks and Prediction for Thursday, July 9, 2026
Use Code SSWC The Atlanta Braves and Pittsburgh Pirates wrap up their three-game series on Thursday at PNC Park in Pittsburgh. First pitch is scheduled for 12:35 PM ET on MLB.TV. Atlanta is 52-38 and leads the National League East despite dropping three straight games, while Pittsburgh is 47-45 and sits fourth in the National League Central after winning four of its last five contests. The Pirates opened the series with a 12-4 victory, while the Braves look to avoid a sweep behind Bryce Elder. Check out today's free MLB picks.
Atlanta Braves Preview
Atlanta has remained near the top of the National League thanks to a balanced roster at the plate and on the mound. Matt Olson leads the club with 24 home runs and 57 RBI, while Michael Harris II is batting .308 with 89 hits. Ozzie Albies has added 14 home runs, Drake Baldwin has contributed 15 long balls, and the Braves have hit 116 home runs while batting .247 as a team.
The Braves have relied heavily on their pitching staff, which owns a 3.65 ERA and has held opponents to a .231 batting average. Atlanta has recorded 807 strikeouts while allowing only 91 home runs, one of the better marks in the National League. Although the offense has cooled during the current three-game losing streak, the Braves remain one of the league's more complete clubs entering the series finale.
Injuries: Eli White (Paternity), Tyler Kinley (Paternity), Ha-Seong Kim (10-Day IL), Ronald Acuña Jr. (10-Day IL), Sean Murphy (60-Day IL).
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Pittsburgh Pirates Preview
Pittsburgh has developed into one of baseball's most productive offensive teams this season. The Pirates are batting .263 while scoring 487 runs with 854 hits and 120 home runs. Brandon Lowe leads the club with 21 home runs and 64 RBI, Nick Gonzales is hitting .314, Bryan Reynolds owns a .397 on-base percentage, and Ryan O'Hearn has added 16 home runs.
The Pirates have won four of their last five games while scoring 36 runs during that stretch, including Tuesday's 12-run performance against Atlanta. Pittsburgh's pitching staff owns a 4.27 ERA and 1.29 WHIP, numbers that have been less consistent than the offense. Continued production at the plate has helped the Pirates stay above .500 as they continue chasing ground in the NL Central standings.
Injuries: Endy Rodriguez (Day-To-Day), Wilber Dotel (15-Day IL), Evan Sisk (15-Day IL), Chris Devenski (60-Day IL), Spencer Horwitz (10-Day IL).
Pitching Matchup
Atlanta Braves – Bryce Elder
Elder is 5-6 with a 4.01 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP across 98.2 innings this season. He has allowed 91 hits while striking out 83 batters and walking 30. Elder has generally limited hard contact and gives Atlanta the more dependable starting pitching matchup entering the series finale.
Pittsburgh Pirates – Mitch Keller
Keller enters with a 6-6 record, 5.02 ERA, and a 1.31 WHIP over 100.1 innings. He has surrendered 98 hits while recording 74 strikeouts and issuing 33 walks this season. Keller has struggled with consistency and faces an Atlanta lineup capable of producing runs throughout the order.
Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Pick
- Atlanta Braves
Atlanta has the edge because of the starting pitching matchup and the stronger overall staff. Elder has been more consistent than Keller throughout the season, and the Braves continue to rank among the National League leaders in team ERA while limiting opposing hitters. Pittsburgh has played well offensively over the past week, but Keller's higher ERA creates opportunities for Atlanta's power hitters. Expect the Braves to respond after Tuesday's loss and salvage the final game of the series.
Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Over/Under Pick
- Under
The total looks slightly high after Pittsburgh's offensive outburst in the series opener. Atlanta's pitching has consistently kept opponents in check this season, and Elder is capable of slowing down a Pirates lineup that has recently been swinging the bat well. While both offenses feature plenty of power, this matchup projects as a more controlled contest with both starters keeping the scoring lower than in the previous meeting.
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