Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox Picks and Prediction for Wednesday, July 22, 2026

The Baltimore Orioles visit the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts, on Wednesday, July 22, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET, with television coverage available on MLB.TV and two additional options. Baltimore enters the matchup with a 49-52 overall record and a 21-27 road mark, while Boston is 51-48 overall and 22-27 at home. ESPN Analytics gives the Red Sox a 57.6% chance of winning, compared with 42.4% for the Orioles. The supplied game information lists a temperature of 80 degrees. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Before making any wagers on Wednesday’s matchup, be sure to check out our free MLB picks.

Starting Pitchers Square Off at Fenway Park

Dean Kremer is scheduled to start for Baltimore and enters with a 1-2 record, a 4.15 ERA, and a 1.12 WHIP. The right-hander has worked 26 innings, allowing 22 hits, seven walks, and nine home runs while recording 29 strikeouts. Jake Bennett gets the start for Boston. The left-hander carries a 5-3 record with a 2.35 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP across 53.2 innings. He has surrendered 38 hits, nine walks, and three home runs while collecting 38 strikeouts.

Baltimore Attempts to Regain Its Recent Momentum

Baltimore enters Wednesday with a 49-52 overall record and a 21-27 mark away from home. The Orioles had their four-game winning streak snapped by a narrow 6-5 loss to Boston in the most recent meeting. Before that defeat, Baltimore recorded three consecutive road victories over Houston by scores of 5-2, 4-2 in 11 innings, and 3-2. The Orioles also defeated Kansas City 8-2 at home. Baltimore has therefore won four of its last five games while allowing two runs in each of its four victories.

The Orioles are batting .238 with 798 hits, 464 runs, and 120 home runs. Baltimore has produced a .321 on-base percentage and a .398 slugging percentage. Its pitching staff enters with a 4.21 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP while issuing 345 walks and recording 801 strikeouts. Opposing hitters are batting .252 against Baltimore. The Orioles have gone 27-30 in night games this season.

Baltimore’s clearest statistical advantage comes from its offensive production. The Orioles have scored 45 more runs than Boston and hit 25 more home runs. They also own the higher on-base percentage and a slightly better slugging percentage. Baltimore has scored at least three runs in each of its last five games, producing 25 runs during that span. The main concern is a pitching staff that trails Boston in every supplied team pitching category.

Boston Tries to Extend Its Perfect Recent Stretch

Boston enters the matchup with a 51-48 overall record despite sitting five games below .500 at Fenway Park. The Red Sox have won each of their last five games, including a 6-5 victory over Baltimore in the recent series meeting. Boston swept the four supplied results against Tampa Bay by scores of 6-1, 7-6, 5-3, and 10-0. The Red Sox have scored at least five runs in every game during their current winning streak, producing 34 runs across those five contests.

The Red Sox are batting .245 with 809 hits, 419 runs, and 95 home runs. Boston owns a .315 on-base percentage and a .394 slugging percentage. Its pitching staff has registered a 3.55 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP while issuing 286 walks and collecting 844 strikeouts. Opposing hitters have managed a .237 batting average against the Red Sox. Boston has also posted a 33-26 record in night games.

Boston’s most significant advantage is its pitching performance. The Red Sox own a team ERA that is 0.66 lower than Baltimore’s and a WHIP that is better by 0.13. Boston has issued 59 fewer walks, recorded 43 more strikeouts, and limited opposing hitters to an average that is 15 points lower. The scheduled starting matchup adds to that advantage, with Boston’s probable pitcher holding the better record, ERA, and WHIP while allowing considerably fewer home runs over more than twice as many innings.

Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox Picks and Prediction

Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox Pick

• Pick: Boston Red Sox Moneyline

Boston is the preferred side in Wednesday night’s matchup. The Red Sox have won five consecutive games, recently defeated Baltimore 6-5, and hold advantages in batting average, hits, team ERA, WHIP, walks, strikeouts, and opposing batting average. The most decisive difference is found in the starting matchup, where Boston’s probable pitcher enters with a 2.35 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP. Baltimore’s scheduled starter has a 4.15 ERA and has surrendered nine home runs in only 26 innings. ESPN Analytics gives Boston a 57.6% probability, and the Red Sox have the stronger overall pitching profile.

Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox Total Pick

• Take the over if the total is set at 8.5.

The over is the preferred play at 8.5. Boston has scored at least five runs in five consecutive games, while Baltimore has produced at least three runs in each of its last five. The teams combined for 11 runs in their recent meeting, and both offenses enter with productive recent results. Baltimore has hit 120 home runs and scored 464 runs this season, while Boston has generated 34 runs during its five-game winning streak. Although Boston owns the stronger pitching statistics, the recent offensive production from both clubs gives this matchup a credible path to nine or more combined runs.

Final Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox 6 – Baltimore Orioles 4

This prediction was written before the completion of game play on Tuesday.